Defensive solidity will set the tone as Pogoń Siedlce, who have conceded only 0.92 goals per game against stronger opposition, faces Arka Gdynia, who average a single goal conceded away. The model favours a home win, with a 41 % chance, a 32 % draw, and a 26 % away win. The expected total of 2.1 goals points to a tight, low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6 % probability. Pogoń’s home form shows 1.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded, while Arka’s away form yields 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9 %), Under 6.5 (99.4 %), Away under 3.5 goals (98.7 %), Under 5.5 (98.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.8 %), Under 4.5 (94.0 %), Away under 2.5 goals (93.8 %) and Home +2 handicap (90.5 %). The match is poised for a defensive standoff with a 1-1 draw the most probable outcome.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogoń Siedlce win
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia win
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogoń Siedlce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.33
1.12
1.12
0.71
1.57
vs Stronger (23)
0.87
1.30
1.15
0.92
0.50
1.80
vs Similar (7)
1.14
1.43
1.00
2.00
1.25
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.69
1.31
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.33
1.50
2.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.57
1.75
0.92
0.89
2.44
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.67
-
-
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
62.9%
Under 1.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.5%
Under 2.5
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
15.8%
Under 3.5
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
41.7%
No
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
14.2%
0-0
13.8%
2-0
9.6%
0-1
9.2%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
5.5%
0-2
4.4%
Pogoń Siedlce goals ↓
Arka Gdynia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
9.2%
4.4%
1.2%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.5%
1.5%
0.3%
2
9.6%
8.1%
3.4%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.0%
3.3%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Siedlce goals (down), columns = Arka Gdynia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.33 points worse than Arka Gdynia in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.33 goals worse than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.17 goals worse than Arka Gdynia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pogoń Siedlce or Draw
76.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
32%
24%
covers Pogoń Siedlce + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce or Arka Gdynia
68.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
32%
24%
covers Pogoń Siedlce + Arka Gdynia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Arka Gdynia
55.8%
Avg Implied -
44%
32%
24%
covers Draw + Arka Gdynia
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5
Over
71.0%
Under
29.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5
Over
12.9%
Under
87.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5
Over
20.7%
Under
79.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5
Over
5.4%
Under
94.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pogoń Siedlce, so a minus line means Pogoń Siedlce give that many goals of a start and Arka Gdynia receive them. At -1, Pogoń Siedlce must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pogoń Siedlce win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pogoń Siedlce)
Pogoń Siedlce -2
7.0%
Draw -2
13.4%
Arka Gdynia +2
79.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pogoń Siedlce)
Pogoń Siedlce -1
20.4%
Draw -1
23.7%
Arka Gdynia +1
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pogoń Siedlce)
Pogoń Siedlce +1
76.1%
Draw +1
15.7%
Arka Gdynia -1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pogoń Siedlce)
Pogoń Siedlce +2
91.8%
Draw +2
6.2%
Arka Gdynia -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogoń Siedlce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.53
0.50
0.38
0.29
0.71
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.48
0.54
0.23
0.30
0.80
vs Similar (7)
0.29
0.71
0.33
1.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.94
0.62
0.21
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.17
0.25
1.50
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.71
1.17
0.33
0.11
1.22
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
-
-
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogoń Siedlce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.62
0.75
0.43
0.86
vs Stronger (23)
0.43
0.83
0.62
0.69
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (7)
0.86
0.71
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Arka Gdynia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Arka Gdynia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.83
0.75
0.69
0.79
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.17
1.25
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.86
0.58
0.58
0.78
1.22
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Arka Gdynia over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Arka Gdynia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Vladislavs Gutkovskis25%
Oskar Kubiak21%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Eduardo Espiau14%
Dawid Kocyła10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Marc Navarro7%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Michał Marcjanik6%
Luis Perea5%
Kike Hermoso5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julien Celestine62%
Kamil Jakubczyk29%
Tornike Gaprindashvili24%
Dawid Gojny23%
Diego Percan22%
Aurélien Nguiamba21%
Kike Hermoso19%
Alassane Sidibe19%
Nazariy Rusyn17%
Luis Perea16%
Marc Navarro14%
Dawid Abramowicz14%
Jędrzej Grobelny14%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis12%
Michał Marcjanik12%
Michał Rzuchowski11%
Dominick Zator11%
Eduardo Espiau10%
Serafin Szota10%
Sebastian Kerk9%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Dawid Kocyła6%
Patryk Szysz0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sebastian Kerk18%
Marc Navarro14%
Diego Percan11%
Kike Hermoso10%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Oskar Kubiak7%
Vladislavs Gutkovskis6%
Tornike Gaprindashvili6%
Luis Perea5%
Dawid Gojny5%
Patryk Szysz4%
Kamil Jakubczyk3%
Nazariy Rusyn0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Dawid Kocyła0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Eduardo Espiau0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vladislavs Gutkovskis31%
Oskar Kubiak14%
Nazariy Rusyn13%
Dawid Abramowicz7%
Kamil Jakubczyk6%
Sebastian Kerk6%
Kike Hermoso5%
Eduardo Espiau3%
Dawid Kocyła3%
Marc Navarro0%
Aurélien Nguiamba0%
Tornike Gaprindashvili0%
Michał Marcjanik0%
Patryk Szysz0%
Dawid Gojny0%
Michał Rzuchowski0%
Serafin Szota0%
Szymon Sobczak0%
Damian Węglarz0%
Luis Perea0%
João Oliveira0%
Dominick Zator0%
Julien Celestine0%
Jędrzej Grobelny0%
Alassane Sidibe0%
Diego Percan0%
Hide Vitalucci0%
Marcel Predenkiewicz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce's squad is €4m less valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce's attack is €1m less valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€1m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Arka Gdynia have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce's defence is €1m less valuable than Arka Gdynia's (€1m vs €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów