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Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza Result & Analysis

Date: 01/08/2026
Time: 13:30
Final 1-2
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Vs
38%
29%
33%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

This highly anticipated match between Pogoń Siedlce and Nieciecza in Poland's I Liga is finely balanced, with both teams having recent performances that could influence the outcome. Pogoń Siedlce drew 2-2 against Polonia Bytom, while Nieciecza bounced back from a 1-2 defeat to Warta Poznań with a string of four consecutive wins.

The model predicts a home win for Pogoń Siedlce, with a 38% probability, but Nieciecza's away win probability stands at 33%, and a draw is possible at 29%. The expected total goals is 2.6, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 13.7% of the time. Pogoń Siedlce has struggled to score at home, averaging 1.09 goals per match, while conceding the same amount. Nieciecza, on the other hand, averages 1.09 goals when playing away against stronger opponents.

The model's selections are Over 1.5, which is likely to hit at 75.2%, and Under 3.5, which has a 72.8% chance of success. Pogoń Siedlce has a 38% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 33% chance of losing.

Results analysis

The win for Nieciecza extends their run of consecutive victories, with their most recent opponent, Warta Poznań, having fallen to a 1-2 defeat. In a stunning upset, Nieciecza claimed a 1-2 victory, defying the pre-match favourite, Pogoń Siedlce. The model's call for Pogoń Siedlce to win was incorrect. The model's selection for Nieciecza to win had a pre-match probability of 33%. The model's selection for Pogoń Siedlce to win had a pre-match probability of 38%. Nieciecza's win was the actual result. The model's selection for Over 1.5 goals hit with a probability of 75.2%, while Under 3.5 goals hit with a probability of 72.8%.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pogoń Siedlce win✗ Miss
38.1%
Avg Implied 30.3% · @ 3.01
Edge
+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.25
Unibet
3.15
1xBet
3.12
SBO
3.06
Marathonbet
3.05
Draw✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.31
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.90
Dafabet
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Betano
3.45
Pinnacle
3.42
Nieciecza win✓ Hit
33.3%
Avg Implied 42.1% · @ 2.16
Edge
-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.22
Betano
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
BetVictor
2.20
William Hil
2.20

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L01L20W20W04L12L13L02L11DH·CHR22/03A·SLA04/04H·TYC12/04A·POG19/04H·MIE25/04A·ŁKS02/05H·STA10/05H·STA15/05A·WIS24/05H·ŁKS25/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.331.071.270.801.40
vs Stronger (27)1.001.331.071.140.921.54
vs Similar (3)0.331.331.003.000.000.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Nieciecza) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

NiecieczaNieciecza

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-514L32W01L13L21W15L01L32W32W20WA·LEC22/03H·PIA06/04A·WID11/04H·WIS19/04A·ZAG24/04A·GKS03/05H·LEG10/05A·ARK18/05H·LEC23/05H·RUC26/07
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.971.251.691.212.29
vs Stronger (8)0.881.500.751.251.001.75
vs Similar (22)1.362.141.421.831.302.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%314%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.2%
@ 1.31+4.5%
Under 1.5
24.8%
@ 3.15-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.44
Betfair
3.25
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.1%
@ 1.99+2.3%
Under 2.5
50.9%
@ 1.75-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.08
Bet365
2.05
Unibet
2.04
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.84
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
SBO
1.76
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
@ 3.46+0.5%
Under 3.5
72.8%
@ 1.26-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.48
Under
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
54.8%
@ 1.79+3.2%
No
45.2%
@ 1.91-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Superbet
1.80
Unibet
1.80
No
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.95
BetVictor
1.95
Betfair
1.95
10Bet
1.93

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 6.04+6.4%
1-0
8.6%@ 8.24+3.2%
2-1
8.5%@ 9.91+4.1%
0-0
8.4%@ 8.78+3.4%
1-2 ✓
7.9%@ 8.27+2.6%
0-1
7.8%@ 6.75+1.3%
2-0
6.7%@ 14.14+3.6%
0-2
5.8%@ 9.55+1.2%
Pogoń Siedlce goals ↓
Nieciecza goals →
01234
08.4%7.8%5.8%2.4%0.8%
18.6%14%7.9%3.3%1.1%
26.7%8.5%5.4%2.3%0.7%
33.1%3.9%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.0%1.3%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Siedlce goals (down), columns = Nieciecza goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Lechia Gdansk
1.96
Arka Gdynia
1.58
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Nieciecza
1.44
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Unia Skierniewice
0.82
Podbeskidzie
0.77
Warta Poznań
0.70
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.38 points worse than Nieciecza in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.44).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Lechia Gdansk
2.14
Arka Gdynia
1.72
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Nieciecza
1.58
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Mielec
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Unia Skierniewice
0.90
Podbeskidzie
0.84
Warta Poznań
0.76
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.61 goals worse than Nieciecza in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.58).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Lechia Gdansk
1.04
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Arka Gdynia
1.29
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Nieciecza
1.41
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Stal Mielec
1.82
Unia Skierniewice
2.46
Podbeskidzie
2.64
Warta Poznań
2.92
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.15 goals better than Nieciecza in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.41).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🔢 6. Odd / Even

🥅 7. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 8. Handicap

🔥 9. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.575.2%1.31
Betfair
1.33
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.31
+4.5%✓ Hit
Under 3.572.8%1.26
Pinnacle
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.27
-0.5%✓ Hit

💰 10. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (27)
€26m
AG (29)
€9m
NIE (25)
€6m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (12)
€18m
AG (9)
€3m
NIE (10)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (1)
€4m
AG (8)
€4m
NIE (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (14)
€5m
AG (12)
€3m
NIE (8)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 11. Games History

Head-to-head

Pogoń Siedlce vs Nieciecza · H/A from PS
DateH/AGameScore
22/02/25ANieciecza Vs PS1-1
11/08/24HPS Vs Nieciecza1-2

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/07/26HPS Vs ŁKS Łódź1-1
24/05/26AWisla Krakow Vs PS2-0
15/05/26HPS Vs Stal Mielec1-3
10/05/26HPS Vs Stal Rzeszów1-2
02/05/26AŁKS Łódź Vs PS4-0
25/04/26HPS Vs Miedz Legnica2-0
19/04/26APogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Vs PS0-2
12/04/26HPS Vs Tychy 710-1
04/04/26ASlask Wroclaw Vs PS1-0
22/03/26HPS Vs Chrobry Głogów1-2

NiecieczaNieciecza

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/07/26HNIE Vs Ruch Chorzów2-0
23/05/26HNIE Vs Lechia Gdansk3-2
18/05/26AArka Gdynia Vs NIE2-3
10/05/26HNIE Vs Legia Warszawa0-1
03/05/26AGKS Katowice Vs NIE5-1
24/04/26AZaglebie Lubin Vs NIE1-2
19/04/26HNIE Vs Wisla Plock1-3
11/04/26AWidzew Łódź Vs NIE1-0
06/04/26HNIE Vs Piast Gliwice3-2
22/03/26ALech Poznan Vs NIE4-1

📊 12. Overall Statistics

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLD1.16
HomeLWLLD1.27
AwayLLWLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%31%25%
AVG goals2.342.272.42
Over 1.5 %78%77%79%
Over 2.5 %40%42%38%
Over 3.5 %18%15%21%
Scored1.101.151.04
Conceded1.241.121.38
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet22%27%17%
Corners---
Cards---
Nieciecza
Nieciecza
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 0 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.26
HomeWLLWW1.32
AwayLLWLW1.20
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals3.243.083.40
Over 1.5 %88%92%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %40%36%44%
Scored1.461.441.48
Conceded1.781.641.92
BTTS72%72%72%
Clean Sheet10%8%12%
Corners9.949.949.94
Cards4.304.194.41

🏆 13. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki410
75%
2.5
61+5
1.8
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.2
-
2Stal MielecStal Mielec48
50%
2.0
117+4
4.5
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.81.8
-
3Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów47
50%
1.8
84+4
3.0
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.0
-
4Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica47
50%
1.8
62+4
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.5
-
5Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa47
50%
1.8
53+2
2.0
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.20.8
-
6ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
7Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia36
67%
2.0
52+3
2.3
67%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3431.70.7
-
8Warta PoznańWarta Poznań46
50%
1.5
98+1
4.2
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
9NiecieczaNieciecza46
50%
1.5
65+1
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.51.2
-
10Odra OpoleOdra Opole46
50%
1.5
55+0
2.5
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
11Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce45
25%
1.2
55+0
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
12PodbeskidziePodbeskidzie44
0%
1.0
77+0
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.8
-
13Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom44
25%
1.0
912-3
5.2
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.23.0
-
14Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów44
25%
1.0
25-3
1.8
75%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.2
-
15Puszcza NiepołomicePuszcza Niepołomice33
33%
1.0
33+0
2.0
33%
33%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
16Unia SkierniewiceUnia Skierniewice43
25%
0.8
48-4
3.0
100%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.0
-
17Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów42
0%
0.5
311-8
3.5
100%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.8
-
18Lechia GdanskLechia Gdansk41
0%
0.2
29-7
2.8
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
26
18450.52.2
-
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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