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Pogoń Siedlce vs Odra Opole Result & Analysis

Date: 08/12/2024
Time: 11:00
Final 0-1
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Vs
45%
27%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Pogoń Siedlce are tipped to win, with a 45% chance of a home triumph, 27% for a draw and 29% for an away victory. The model expects about 2.9 goals, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 24%. The single score most likely to materialise is 1-1, carrying a 12.5% probability. In recent matches the home side has averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against teams of similar strength, while Odra Opole, playing away, has managed only 0.73 goals scored and 1.73 conceded to comparable opponents. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 79.8% chance. Both teams have come off a draw and a win respectively, adding a slight edge to the home side’s confidence.

Results analysis

The upset came as Odra Opole snatched a 0-1 away win, overturning the pre-match favourite, Pogoń Siedlce, who had been coming off a draw in their recent form. The model had predicted a home win with a 45% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 0-1 confirmed an away victory. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, which the model set at 79.8% confidence; it missed as the match produced just one goal. The prediction of a 2-goal total, at 24% probability, also failed, as the game finished with a single goal.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pogoń Siedlce win✗ Miss
44.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole win✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L24L01L13L12L11D14L21W12L01LA·ŁKS13/09H·POL22/09A·ZNI28/09H·WIS05/10A·ARK20/10H·GÓR26/10A·MIE03/11H·KOT08/11A·WAR24/11A·CHR01/12
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.891.891.001.890.801.90
vs Stronger (12)0.672.000.832.170.501.83
vs Similar (6)1.331.671.331.331.332.00
vs Weaker (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
Clean sheet %0% (-25pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Odra OpoleOdra Opole

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-605L11D06L22D02L01L10W00D11D06LA·WIS27/09H·ZNI02/10H·ARK06/10A·GÓR18/10H·MIE26/10H·POG29/10A·KOT02/11H·WAR09/11A·CHR23/11A·RUC29/11
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.601.071.271.201.93
vs Stronger (8)1.122.620.802.201.673.33
vs Similar (20)1.001.351.330.890.731.73
vs Weaker (2)2.500.000.000.005.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.6%
Under 2.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.1%
No
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
7.8%
2-0
7.3%
1-2
7.3%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.9%
0-1 ✓
5.8%
Pogoń Siedlce goals ↓
Odra Opole goals →
01234
06.6%5.8%4.5%1.9%0.6%
17.8%13%7.3%3.1%1.0%
27.3%9.3%5.9%2.5%0.8%
33.9%5.0%3.2%1.4%0.4%
41.6%2.1%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Siedlce goals (down), columns = Odra Opole goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arka Gdynia
2.12
Nieciecza
2.09
Wisla Plock
1.94
Wisla Krakow
1.77
Miedz Legnica
1.64
Polonia Warszawa
1.60
Tychy 71
1.56
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
ŁKS Łódź
1.38
Stal Rzeszów
1.03
Chrobry Głogów
0.97
Pogoń Siedlce
0.88
Odra Opole
0.88
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Warta Poznań
0.71
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.68
Pogoń Siedlce and Odra Opole are level in average points per game (both 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nieciecza
2.06
Arka Gdynia
1.85
Wisla Krakow
1.80
Wisla Plock
1.72
Miedz Legnica
1.58
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
1.47
Tychy 71
1.38
Polonia Warszawa
1.34
Stal Rzeszów
1.24
Pogoń Siedlce
1.12
Chrobry Głogów
1.09
Odra Opole
0.91
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.79
Warta Poznań
0.65
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.21 goals better than Odra Opole in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 0.91).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arka Gdynia
0.71
Wisla Krakow
0.94
Tychy 71
1.06
Wisla Plock
1.08
Polonia Warszawa
1.11
Nieciecza
1.15
ŁKS Łódź
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.26
Miedz Legnica
1.31
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Pogoń Siedlce
1.56
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.62
Warta Poznań
1.65
Stal Rzeszów
1.74
Chrobry Głogów
1.74
Odra Opole
1.79
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.91
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.24 goals better than Odra Opole in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.79).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L00D11D02L00D03L01L10W01LA·ŁKS13/09H·POL22/09A·ZNI28/09H·WIS05/10A·ARK20/10H·GÓR26/10A·MIE03/11H·KOT08/11A·WAR24/11A·CHR01/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.211.110.331.220.101.00
vs Stronger (12)0.171.080.331.170.001.00
vs Similar (6)0.171.330.331.330.001.33
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %26% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Odra OpoleOdra Opole

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W03L20W01L00D10W00D11D03LA·WIS27/09H·ZNI02/10H·ARK06/10A·GÓR18/10H·MIE26/10H·POG29/10A·KOT02/11H·WAR09/11A·CHR23/11A·RUC29/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.600.730.800.73
vs Stronger (8)0.751.120.801.400.670.67
vs Similar (20)0.600.650.560.440.640.82
vs Weaker (2)1.500.000.000.003.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L23L01L02L10W11D11D20W02L00DA·ŁKS13/09H·POL22/09A·ZNI28/09H·WIS05/10A·ARK20/10H·GÓR26/10A·MIE03/11H·KOT08/11A·WAR24/11A·CHR01/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.680.790.670.670.700.90
vs Stronger (12)0.500.920.501.000.500.83
vs Similar (6)1.170.331.000.001.330.67
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Odra Opole) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Odra OpoleOdra Opole

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L01L03L02L01L01L00D00D00D03LA·WIS27/09H·ZNI02/10H·ARK06/10A·GÓR18/10H·MIE26/10H·POG29/10A·KOT02/11H·WAR09/11A·CHR23/11A·RUC29/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.870.470.530.401.20
vs Stronger (8)0.381.500.000.801.002.67
vs Similar (20)0.400.700.780.440.090.91
vs Weaker (2)1.000.000.000.002.000.00
Clean sheet %50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Odra Opole over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
Pogoń Siedlce's squad is €2m less valuable than Odra Opole's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
WP (0)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Odra Opole have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce's midfield is €1m less valuable than Odra Opole's (€0m vs €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Odra Opole have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
PS wins
0
Draws
1
OO wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pogoń Siedlce vs Odra Opole · H/A from PS
DateH/AGameScore
28/07/24AOdra Opole Vs PS4-1

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/12/24AChrobry Głogów Vs PS1-0
24/11/24AWarta Poznań Vs PS2-1
08/11/24HPS Vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg2-1
03/11/24AMiedz Legnica Vs PS4-1
26/10/24HPS Vs Górnik Łęczna1-1
20/10/24AArka Gdynia Vs PS2-1
05/10/24HPS Vs Wisla Krakow1-3
28/09/24AZnicz Pruszków Vs PS1-0
22/09/24HPS Vs Polonia Warszawa2-4
13/09/24AŁKS Łódź Vs PS2-0

Odra OpoleOdra Opole

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/11/24ARuch Chorzów Vs OO6-0
23/11/24AChrobry Głogów Vs OO1-1
09/11/24HOO Vs Warta Poznań0-0
02/11/24AKotwica Kołobrzeg Vs OO0-1
29/10/24HOO Vs Pogon Szczecin0-1
26/10/24HOO Vs Miedz Legnica0-2
18/10/24AGórnik Łęczna Vs OO2-2
06/10/24HOO Vs Arka Gdynia0-6
02/10/24HOO Vs Znicz Pruszków1-1
27/09/24AWisla Krakow Vs OO5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL0.47
HomeDLLDW0.56
AwayLLLLL0.40
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %11%11%10%
AVG goals2.792.892.70
Over 1.5 %79%89%70%
Over 2.5 %53%56%50%
Over 3.5 %26%22%30%
Scored0.891.000.80
Conceded1.891.891.90
BTTS68%78%60%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Odra Opole
Odra Opole
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDDL1.18
HomeDLLLD1.38
AwayLDWDL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%23%
AVG goals2.422.122.69
Over 1.5 %70%67%73%
Over 2.5 %46%42%50%
Over 3.5 %20%8%31%
Scored1.021.041.00
Conceded1.401.081.69
BTTS36%29%42%
Clean Sheet30%42%19%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia3472
62%
2.1
6324+39
2.6
74%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.90.7
-
2NiecieczaNieciecza3471
62%
2.1
7039+31
3.2
91%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2212.11.1
-
3Wisla PlockWisla Plock3670
56%
1.9
6239+23
2.8
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
4361.71.1
-
4Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3562
51%
1.8
6333+30
2.7
74%
57%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6251.80.9
-
5Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3659
47%
1.6
5747+10
2.9
81%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.61.3
-
6Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3556
46%
1.6
4739+8
2.5
66%
51%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.31.1
-
7Tychy 71Tychy 713453
38%
1.6
4736+11
2.4
68%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3452
41%
1.5
5243+9
2.8
74%
59%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3450
38%
1.5
5042+8
2.7
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
10Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3448
38%
1.4
5046+4
2.8
76%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.51.4
-
11ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3447
38%
1.4
5041+9
2.7
71%
56%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.51.2
-
12Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3435
26%
1.0
4259-17
3.0
76%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.7
-
13Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3433
24%
1.0
3759-22
2.8
79%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
14Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce3430
21%
0.9
3853-15
2.7
79%
50%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
15Odra OpoleOdra Opole3430
21%
0.9
3161-30
2.7
71%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.8
-
16Kotwica KołobrzegKotwica Kołobrzeg3429
18%
0.9
2955-26
2.5
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
17Warta PoznańWarta Poznań3424
18%
0.7
2256-34
2.3
62%
44%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.61.6
-
18Stal Stalowa WolaStal Stalowa Wola3423
12%
0.7
2765-38
2.7
71%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
Poland: I Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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