PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Pogoń Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa Result & Analysis

Date: 20/07/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Vs
31%
30%
39%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pogoń Siedlce win✗ Miss
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
29.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa win✗ Miss
38.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-442W11D12L21W01L11D31W30W11D21WA·STA30/03H·ŁKS06/04A·POL09/04H·ZNI12/04A·WIS19/04H·ARK26/04A·GÓR02/05H·MIE10/05A·KOT17/05H·WAR25/05
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.471.201.331.071.60
vs Stronger (20)1.001.651.301.600.701.70
vs Similar (8)1.381.000.750.752.001.25
vs Weaker (2)1.501.502.001.001.002.00
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W21W30W00D11D23L21W01L11D12LA·ODR05/04H·POG09/04A·NIE14/04H·WIS19/04A·TYC26/04H·STA03/05A·STA10/05H·ŁKS17/05A·RUC25/05A·WIS29/05
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.171.501.071.621.25
vs Stronger (2)2.001.002.001.00--
vs Similar (24)1.331.121.361.091.311.15
vs Weaker (4)2.751.502.001.003.001.67
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.0%
Under 1.5
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.9%
Under 2.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.1%
0-1
9.8%
0-0
9.7%
1-0
8.5%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
7.4%
0-2
7.3%
2-0
5.7%
Pogoń Siedlce goals ↓
Polonia Warszawa goals →
01234
09.7%9.8%7.3%3.2%1.0%
18.5%14%8.4%3.7%1.2%
25.7%7.4%4.9%2.1%0.7%
32.2%2.9%1.9%0.8%0.3%
40.6%0.8%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Siedlce goals (down), columns = Polonia Warszawa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Wisla Krakow
2.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.79
Wieczysta Kraków
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
0.82
Górnik Łęczna
0.79
Tychy 71
0.68
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.46 points worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.51).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków
2.08
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Stal Mielec
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Tychy 71
1.18
Znicz Pruszków
1.18
Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.57 goals worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.54).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Wisla Krakow
0.88
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Górnik Łęczna
1.82
Stal Mielec
1.82
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.18
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.22 goals better than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.49).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W00D02L10W01L01L01L10W00D10WA·STA30/03H·ŁKS06/04A·POL09/04H·ZNI12/04A·WIS19/04H·ARK26/04A·GÓR02/05H·MIE10/05A·KOT17/05H·WAR25/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.300.700.400.530.200.87
vs Stronger (20)0.200.800.400.600.001.00
vs Similar (8)0.380.620.250.500.500.75
vs Weaker (2)1.000.001.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D20W10W00D11D13L20W00D11D11DA·ODR05/04H·POG09/04A·NIE14/04H·WIS19/04A·TYC26/04H·STA03/05A·STA10/05H·ŁKS17/05A·RUC25/05A·WIS29/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.570.860.640.810.50
vs Stronger (2)1.001.001.001.00--
vs Similar (24)0.710.580.730.640.690.54
vs Weaker (4)1.500.252.000.001.330.33
Clean sheet %60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D10W11D00D10W30W20W11D11DA·STA30/03H·ŁKS06/04A·POL09/04H·ZNI12/04A·WIS19/04H·ARK26/04A·GÓR02/05H·MIE10/05A·KOT17/05H·WAR25/05
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.770.800.800.870.73
vs Stronger (20)0.800.850.901.000.700.70
vs Similar (8)1.000.380.500.251.500.50
vs Weaker (2)0.501.501.001.000.002.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L20W00D00D10W01L01L00D01LA·ODR05/04H·POG09/04A·NIE14/04H·WIS19/04A·TYC26/04H·STA03/05A·STA10/05H·ŁKS17/05A·RUC25/05A·WIS29/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.600.640.430.810.75
vs Stronger (2)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (24)0.620.540.640.450.620.62
vs Weaker (4)1.251.250.001.001.671.33
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
SW (22)
€7m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
Pogoń Siedlce's squad is €3m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€2m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PW (13)
€3m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce's attack is €2m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Polonia Warszawa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
SW (8)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
Pogoń Siedlce's defence is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
PS wins
0
Draws
2
PW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pogoń Siedlce vs Polonia Warszawa · H/A from PS
DateH/AGameScore
09/04/25APolonia Warszawa Vs PS2-1
22/09/24HPS Vs Polonia Warszawa2-4

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/05/25HPS Vs Warta Poznań2-1
17/05/25AKotwica Kołobrzeg Vs PS1-1
10/05/25HPS Vs Miedz Legnica3-0
02/05/25AGórnik Łęczna Vs PS1-3
26/04/25HPS Vs Arka Gdynia1-1
19/04/25AWisla Krakow Vs PS1-0
12/04/25HPS Vs Znicz Pruszków2-1
09/04/25APolonia Warszawa Vs PS2-1
06/04/25HPS Vs ŁKS Łódź1-1
30/03/25AStal Rzeszów Vs PS2-4

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/05/25AWisla Plock Vs PW2-1
25/05/25ARuch Chorzów Vs PW1-1
17/05/25HPW Vs ŁKS Łódź0-1
10/05/25AStal Rzeszów Vs PW1-2
03/05/25HPW Vs Stal Stalowa Wola2-3
26/04/25ATychy 71 Vs PW1-1
19/04/25HPW Vs Wisla Plock0-0
14/04/25ANieciecza Vs PW0-3
09/04/25HPW Vs Pogoń Siedlce2-1
05/04/25AOdra Opole Vs PW0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWDW0.86
HomeDWDWW1.00
AwayWLLWD0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %20%22%18%
AVG goals2.662.562.76
Over 1.5 %80%83%76%
Over 2.5 %49%50%47%
Over 3.5 %23%17%29%
Scored1.091.111.06
Conceded1.571.441.71
BTTS69%72%65%
Clean Sheet6%11%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLDL1.56
HomeWWDLL1.48
AwayWDWDL1.64
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%40%44%
AVG goals2.582.562.60
Over 1.5 %70%68%72%
Over 2.5 %54%48%60%
Over 3.5 %24%24%24%
Scored1.381.361.40
Conceded1.201.201.20
BTTS58%48%68%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3371
61%
2.2
7229+43
3.1
88%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6252.20.9
-
2Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków3663
50%
1.8
7550+25
3.5
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5152.11.4
-
3Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw3359
48%
1.8
6647+19
3.4
94%
76%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2322.01.4
-
4Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3656
44%
1.6
5039+11
2.5
81%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.1
-
5ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3555
43%
1.6
5749+8
3.0
86%
66%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.4
-
6Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3453
41%
1.6
5446+8
2.9
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.61.4
-
7Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3553
43%
1.5
5452+2
3.0
83%
60%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.51.5
-
8Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3452
44%
1.5
5253-1
3.1
88%
65%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.6
-
9Puszcza NiepołomicePuszcza Niepołomice3449
35%
1.4
4540+5
2.5
82%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.31.2
-
10Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom3447
38%
1.4
5650+6
3.1
85%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.5
-
11Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki3445
32%
1.3
5154-3
3.1
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.51.6
-
12Odra OpoleOdra Opole3444
32%
1.3
3440-6
2.2
76%
35%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.2
-
13Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3443
35%
1.3
4960-11
3.2
85%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.41.8
-
14Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce3436
26%
1.1
3343-10
2.2
74%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
15Stal MielecStal Mielec3436
29%
1.1
5162-11
3.3
91%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.8
-
16Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3428
21%
0.8
4068-28
3.2
76%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
17Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3427
15%
0.8
3962-23
3.0
91%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
18Tychy 71Tychy 713423
15%
0.7
4074-34
3.4
79%
68%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
Poland: I Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

← all matches