This match between Pogoń Siedlce and Polonia Warszawa is expected to be a closely contested affair, with Polonia Warszawa coming off a draw against Ruch Chorzów. The model predicts the away win, with a 47% probability, while the home win and draw probabilities stand at 25% and 27% respectively. The expected total number of goals is 2.7, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.9%.
Pogoń Siedlce have struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.14 goals and conceding 1.29 goals per match against stronger opponents. Meanwhile, Polonia Warszawa have performed well away from home, scoring an average of 1.14 goals and conceding 1.29 goals per match against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 with a probability of 76.8%, and Under 3.5 with a probability of 70.8% and an edge of 6%. The home win percentage is 25%, the draw percentage is 27%, and the away win percentage is 47%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Pogoń Siedlce won 1-0 at home, extending their recent run of form. The model's selection, an away win for Polonia Warszawa, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 47%. The model's call was wrong. In addition to the model's selection, the model also suggested an Over 1.5 goals, which missed, with a probability of 76.8%, and an Under 3.5 goals, which hit, with a probability of 70.8%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogoń Siedlce win✓ Hit
25.4%
Avg Implied 21.8% · @ 4.18
Edge
+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.66
Betano
4.35
1xBet
4.26
Marathonbet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Draw✗ Miss
27.1%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.62
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.80
Dafabet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.76
Betano
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Polonia Warszawa win✗ Miss
47.5%
Avg Implied 53.0% · @ 1.72
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Unibet
1.73
888Sport
1.73
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogoń Siedlce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.50
1.13
1.40
0.80
1.60
vs Stronger (25)
1.00
1.48
1.15
1.31
0.83
1.67
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.60
1.00
2.00
0.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.30
1.40
1.20
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.48
1.44
1.33
1.33
1.62
1.54
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.8%
@ 1.22+0.7%
Under 1.5
23.2%
@ 3.89-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.14
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.95
BetVictor
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.4%
@ 1.72-2.7%
Under 2.5
48.6%
@ 2.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.80
SBO
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Bet365
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.08
SBO
2.08
Betano
2.07
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.2%
@ 2.79-3.8%
Under 3.5
70.8%
@ 1.38+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.95
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
Pinnacle
2.86
888Sport
2.80
Under
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.1%
@ 1.66-0.5%
No
44.9%
@ 2.08+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.72
Betfair
1.67
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
BetVictor
1.67
No
Betfair
2.15
William Hil
2.15
888Sport
2.15
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.70+6.3%
1-2
9.5%@ 7.24+3.3%
0-1
9.3%@ 7.32+3.3%
0-2
8.4%@ 8.05+2.9%
0-0
7.7%@ 11.43+3.8%
2-1
6.6%@ 12.35+3.0%
1-0 ✓
6.1%@ 12.33+2.6%
2-2
5.3%@ 12.71+1.8%
Pogoń Siedlce goals ↓
Polonia Warszawa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
9.3%
8.4%
4.5%
1.8%
1
6.1%
13%
9.5%
5.1%
2.0%
2
4.1%
6.6%
5.3%
2.8%
1.1%
3
1.5%
2.5%
2.0%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Siedlce goals (down), columns = Polonia Warszawa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.33 points worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.50 goals worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.33 goals better than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogoń Siedlce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.47
0.47
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (25)
0.48
0.60
0.54
0.46
0.42
0.75
vs Similar (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.53
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.40
0.60
0.17
0.50
0.62
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogoń Siedlce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.67
0.93
0.47
0.93
vs Stronger (25)
0.52
0.88
0.62
0.85
0.42
0.92
vs Similar (5)
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.50
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.70
1.20
0.67
0.93
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.84
1.17
0.83
1.00
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
76.8%
1.22
Unibet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
888Sport
1.22
+0.7%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
70.8%
1.38
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Betfair
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Bet365
1.40
+3.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce's squad is €3m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€2m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce's attack is €2m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Polonia Warszawa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce's defence is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Warta Poznań
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów