Pogoń Siedlce enter the match after a shaky run, having lost their last game 0-1 to Lechia Gdańsk, while Stal Mielec are also coming off a defeat, 0-4 at ŁKS Łódź. The model sees the most likely outcome as a home win, with a 36% chance, a draw at 28%, and an away win also at 36%. The expected total goals hover at 2.7, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% probability. In terms of form, Pogoń Siedlce average 1.08 goals scored and conceded against stronger opposition at home, whereas Stal Mielec average 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded away against weaker teams. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4% with a 7% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.3% with a 7% edge, Under 6.5 at 98.0% with a 7% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2% with a 9% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.9% with a 7% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.3% with a 6% edge, and Home under 3.5 goals at 95.1% with a 5% edge.
Results analysis
Pogoń Siedlce’s recent win over Stal Mielec extended their positive run, and the model’s pick of a home win proved correct, with a 2-0 result. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 36% probability, and the prediction matched the outcome. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Under 6.5 at 98.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0%, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.3%, and Home under 3.5 goals at 95.1%. Each hit was recorded once, and the final score of 2-0 confirmed the model’s overall accuracy.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogoń Siedlce win✓ Hit
36.1%
Avg Implied 32.0% · @ 2.84
Edge
+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.00
Superbet
2.95
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.89
Betano
2.87
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.32
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.45
Dafabet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.44
BetVictor
3.40
Betfair
3.40
Stal Mielec win✗ Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied 40.6% · @ 2.23
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.35
Dafabet
2.32
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogoń Siedlce
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.37
1.07
1.20
0.73
1.53
vs Stronger (24)
0.88
1.38
1.08
1.00
0.67
1.75
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.33
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Mielec
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.80
2.07
1.53
1.27
2.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
1.68
1.84
2.15
1.54
1.17
2.17
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
1.25
1.50
1.50
2.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.2%
@ 1.20-0.5%
Under 1.5
23.8%
@ 3.97+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.33
Pinnacle
4.27
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.5%
@ 1.69-4.3%
Under 2.5
49.5%
@ 2.05+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.08
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
@ 2.70-5.8%
Under 3.5
71.5%
@ 1.40+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.75
Pinnacle
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.0%
@ 1.57-2.8%
No
44.0%
@ 2.24+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Betano
1.57
No
Betfair
2.30
1xBet
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
Betano
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%@ 6.15+6.2%
2-1
8.3%@ 9.54+3.6%
1-2
8.2%@ 8.36+2.9%
0-0
8.0%@ 11.50+4.1%
1-0
7.9%@ 10.24+3.6%
0-1
7.8%@ 8.72+2.7%
2-0 ✓
6.2%@ 14.60+3.1%
0-2
6.1%@ 11.53+2.2%
Pogoń Siedlce goals ↓
Stal Mielec goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
7.8%
6.1%
2.7%
0.9%
1
7.9%
13%
8.2%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.2%
8.3%
5.6%
2.5%
0.8%
3
2.8%
3.7%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.3%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Siedlce goals (down), columns = Stal Mielec goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec are level in average points per game (both 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.67 goals worse than Stal Mielec in terms of goals scored per game (1.17 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Pogoń Siedlce is 1.17 goals better than Stal Mielec in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pogoń Siedlce or Draw✓ Hit
64.5%
Avg Implied 59.1% · @ 1.56
Edge
+5.3%
36%
28%
36%
covers Pogoń Siedlce + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
SBO
1.56
Pogoń Siedlce or Stal Mielec✓ Hit
71.7%
Avg Implied 72.7% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.0%
36%
28%
36%
covers Pogoń Siedlce + Stal Mielec
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
Draw or Stal Mielec✗ Miss
63.9%
Avg Implied 68.2% · @ 1.35
Edge
-4.3%
36%
28%
36%
covers Draw + Stal Mielec
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.36
BetVictor
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.2%
@ 1.28+1.4%
Under
25.8%
@ 3.42-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.59
BetVictor
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Betano
3.35
Superbet
3.35
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.2%
@ 2.34-0.3%
Under
60.8%
@ 1.53+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Bet365
2.38
Betano
2.35
Superbet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.53
BetVictor
1.53
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.5%
@ 5.38-1.7%
Under
84.5%
@ 1.12+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.25
Marathonbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 13.25-2.3%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Stal Mielec over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
73.8%
@ 1.21-3.1%
Under
26.2%
@ 4.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Under
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Betano
3.95
Stal Mielec over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.7%
@ 1.99-7.8%
Under
61.3%
@ 1.74+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Betano
2.02
Marathonbet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
Unibet
1.73
Stal Mielec over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.2%
@ 4.19-6.9%
Under
84.8%
@ 1.19+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.35
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
1xBet
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
Stal Mielec over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.7%
@ 9.43-5.2%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.04+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
1xBet
9.60
Superbet
9.10
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pogoń Siedlce, so a minus line means Pogoń Siedlce give that many goals of a start and Stal Mielec receive them. At -1, Pogoń Siedlce must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pogoń Siedlce win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pogoń Siedlce)Actual: Draw
Pogoń Siedlce -2
6.1%
@ 12.50-1.1%
Draw -2
10.9%
@ 8.10-0.3%
Stal Mielec +2
83.0%
@ 1.11+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
12.00
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
7.70
Away
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Handicap -1 (Pogoń Siedlce)Actual: Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce -1
17.0%
@ 5.75+1.6%
Draw -1
19.2%
@ 4.65+0.2%
Stal Mielec +1
63.9%
@ 1.34-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.50
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.33
Handicap +1 (Pogoń Siedlce)Actual: Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce +1
64.5%
@ 1.57+8.7%
Draw +1
19.0%
@ 3.93-3.4%
Stal Mielec -1
16.6%
@ 4.01-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.52
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Unibet
3.30
Away
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.05
Unibet
3.25
Handicap +2 (Pogoń Siedlce)Actual: Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce +2
83.4%
@ 1.19+8.3%
Draw +2
10.7%
@ 6.30-3.5%
Stal Mielec -2
5.9%
@ 8.40-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
Superbet
6.10
Away
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
8.20
Marathonbet
8.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogoń Siedlce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.40
0.40
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (24)
0.38
0.50
0.42
0.25
0.33
0.75
vs Similar (6)
0.33
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Mielec
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.77
1.33
0.53
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
0.76
1.31
0.62
0.33
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.25
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.3%
@ 1.32-2.0%
Under 0.5
31.7%
@ 3.13+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
BetVictor
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
32.1%
@ 2.45-5.5%
Under 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.48+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.57
Betano
2.55
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.50
Superbet
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.51
BetVictor
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 5.91-4.9%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.11+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.00
William Hil
6.00
Superbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
42.5%
@ 2.06-2.5%
Under
57.5%
@ 1.68+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.10
Betano
2.07
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.03
1xBet
2.03
Under
Pinnacle
1.72
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
11.0%
@ 6.22-3.8%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.08+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.35
Superbet
6.30
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 16.00-4.4%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Stal Mielec over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.0%
@ 1.86-4.7%
Under
55.0%
@ 1.84+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.80
Stal Mielec over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.2%
@ 5.20-5.6%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.12+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
5.20
Betano
5.00
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Stal Mielec over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.9%
@ 13.00-4.4%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogoń Siedlce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.83
0.67
0.80
0.40
0.87
vs Stronger (24)
0.50
0.88
0.67
0.75
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Stal Mielec) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Stal Mielec
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
0.73
1.00
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.84
1.08
0.85
0.92
0.83
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
0.00
1.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.1%
@ 1.19+0.0%
Under 0.5
21.9%
@ 4.25-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.15
Betano
4.10
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
42.0%
@ 1.90-6.7%
Under 1.5
58.0%
@ 1.80+6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
16.4%
@ 3.76-8.3%
Under 2.5
83.6%
@ 1.23+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.50
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
51.7%
@ 1.74-1.4%
Under
48.3%
@ 1.97+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.6%
@ 4.55-4.6%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.15+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.70
Marathonbet
4.65
1xBet
4.60
Betano
4.25
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 11.50-5.1%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.02+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Stal Mielec over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
52.4%
@ 1.60-5.6%
Under
47.6%
@ 2.21+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
1xBet
2.24
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.17
Stal Mielec over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 3.78-9.3%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.22+9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.86
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Under
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
Stal Mielec over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 9.50-7.2%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.04+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+7.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.3%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.4%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.04
BetVictor
1.02
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.11
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.0%
1.08
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.07
-
+3.8%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.8%
1.12
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.14
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.22
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.20
-
+9.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.8%
1.19
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.19
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.5%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.4%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.6%
1.23
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
-
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
83.4%
1.19
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
83.0%
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
-
-
-
+1.4%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
1.19
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
-
+0.0%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.20
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
74.2%
1.28
Bet365
1.30
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
1xBet
1.27
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
73.8%
1.21
Betano
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
BetVictor
1.20
1xBet
1.18
-3.1%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.7%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.28
-1.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.5%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Bet365
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
+5.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Stal Mielec · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Piotr Wlazło34%
Ivan Cavaleiro33%
Ilia Shkurin20%
Łukasz Wolsztyński17%
Robert Dadok11%
Mateusz Matras10%
Matthew Guillaumier10%
Sergiy Krykun5%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Ravve Assayeg5%
Fryderyk Gerbowski5%
Marvin Senger4%
Krystian Getinger4%
Maciej Domański3%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Karol Knap0%
Bert Esselink0%
Adrian Bukowski0%
Dawid Tkacz0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Karol Knap23%
Petros Bagalianis20%
Mateusz Matras19%
Marvin Senger19%
Ivan Cavaleiro17%
Matthew Guillaumier16%
Robert Dadok15%
Bert Esselink14%
Piotr Wlazło14%
Adrian Bukowski11%
Damian Kądzior10%
Ilia Shkurin10%
Łukasz Wolsztyński10%
Koki Hinokio10%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz10%
Alvis Jaunzems9%
Fryderyk Gerbowski9%
Krystian Getinger7%
Maciej Domański6%
Dawid Tkacz6%
Ravve Assayeg5%
Jakub Mądrzyk3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Sergiy Krykun0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ivan Cavaleiro33%
Matthew Guillaumier13%
Krystian Getinger11%
Adrian Bukowski11%
Ilia Shkurin10%
Łukasz Wolsztyński10%
Karol Knap8%
Robert Dadok7%
Maciej Domański6%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Mateusz Matras3%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Piotr Wlazło0%
Sergiy Krykun0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Marvin Senger0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Ravve Assayeg0%
Fryderyk Gerbowski0%
Bert Esselink0%
Dawid Tkacz0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ilia Shkurin25%
Łukasz Wolsztyński13%
Sergiy Krykun11%
Piotr Wlazło10%
Matthew Guillaumier10%
Marvin Senger8%
Robert Dadok7%
Dawid Tkacz6%
Krzysztof Wołkowicz5%
Krystian Getinger4%
Alvis Jaunzems3%
Jean-David Beauguel0%
Damian Kądzior0%
Ivan Cavaleiro0%
Mateusz Matras0%
Maciej Domański0%
Petros Bagalianis0%
Mateusz Kochalski0%
Koki Hinokio0%
Pyry Hannola0%
Ravve Assayeg0%
Fryderyk Gerbowski0%
Karol Knap0%
Bert Esselink0%
Adrian Bukowski0%
Jakub Mądrzyk0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Stal Mielec have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Odra Opole
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów