This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.57
0.62
1.69
0.64
1.43
vs Stronger (30)
0.63
1.57
0.62
1.69
0.64
1.43
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.9%
Under 2.5
58.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.2%
No
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
12.9%
0-0
10.7%
2-0
10.5%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
5.3%
3-0
5.2%
Pogoń Siedlce goals ↓
Warta Poznań goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
7.0%
3.6%
1.0%
0.2%
1
13%
13%
5.3%
1.5%
0.3%
2
10%
9.1%
4.0%
1.1%
0.2%
3
5.2%
4.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.9%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogoń Siedlce goals (down), columns = Warta Poznań goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Arka Gdynia
2.12
Nieciecza
2.09
Wisla Plock
1.94
Wisla Krakow
1.77
Miedz Legnica
1.64
Polonia Warszawa
1.60
Tychy 71
1.56
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
ŁKS Łódź
1.38
Stal Rzeszów
1.03
Chrobry Głogów
0.97
Odra Opole
0.88
Pogoń Siedlce
0.88
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Warta Poznań
0.71
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.68
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.18 points better than Warta Poznań in terms of average points per game (0.88 vs 0.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Nieciecza
2.06
Arka Gdynia
1.85
Wisla Krakow
1.80
Wisla Plock
1.72
Miedz Legnica
1.58
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
1.47
Tychy 71
1.38
Polonia Warszawa
1.34
Stal Rzeszów
1.24
Pogoń Siedlce
1.12
Chrobry Głogów
1.09
Odra Opole
0.91
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.79
Warta Poznań
0.65
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.47 goals better than Warta Poznań in terms of goals scored per game (1.12 vs 0.65).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Arka Gdynia
0.71
Wisla Krakow
0.94
Tychy 71
1.06
Wisla Plock
1.08
Polonia Warszawa
1.11
Nieciecza
1.15
ŁKS Łódź
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.26
Miedz Legnica
1.31
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Pogoń Siedlce
1.56
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.62
Warta Poznań
1.65
Stal Rzeszów
1.74
Chrobry Głogów
1.74
Odra Opole
1.79
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.91
Pogoń Siedlce is 0.09 goals better than Warta Poznań in terms of goals conceded per game (1.56 vs 1.65).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogoń Siedlce
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.77
0.40
0.67
0.20
0.87
vs Stronger (21)
0.24
0.86
0.45
0.73
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.38
0.62
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.17
0.93
0.19
0.94
0.14
0.93
vs Stronger (30)
0.17
0.93
0.19
0.94
0.14
0.93
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogoń Siedlce
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (21)
0.76
0.81
0.82
0.91
0.70
0.70
vs Similar (8)
1.00
0.38
0.50
0.25
1.50
0.50
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (30)
0.47
0.63
0.44
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Warta Poznań · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kajetan Szmyt21%
Adam Zreľák14%
Maciej Żurawski14%
Mateusz Kupczak12%
Márton Eppel10%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Stefan Savić7%
Miguel Luís6%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Dario Vizinger3%
Konrad Matuszewski3%
Dawid Szymonowicz3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz31%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos28%
Dario Vizinger28%
Mateusz Kupczak19%
Maciej Żurawski17%
Mohamed Mezghrani17%
Jakub Bartkowski17%
Michał Kopczyński14%
Dawid Szymonowicz13%
Filip Borowski12%
Kajetan Szmyt12%
Jedrzej Grobelny12%
Stefan Savić10%
Konrad Matuszewski10%
Adrian Lis10%
Miguel Luís9%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Bogdan Țîru8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Jakub Kiełb5%
Márton Eppel5%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dario Vizinger10%
Jakub Kiełb10%
Mohamed Mezghrani8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Konrad Matuszewski7%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Tomas Prikryl5%
Niilo Mäenpää4%
Filip Borowski4%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Stefan Savić3%
Miguel Luís3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Mateusz Kupczak0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Márton Eppel0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Márton Eppel14%
Mateusz Kupczak9%
Adam Zreľák7%
Dario Vizinger7%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz6%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Miguel Luís0%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Tomas Prikryl0%
Stefan Savić0%
Konrad Matuszewski0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
Pogoń Siedlce and Warta Poznań have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
WP (0)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Warta Poznań have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Warta Poznań have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
Pogoń Siedlce and Warta Poznań have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →