Pogradeci’s defensive record at home shows only 0.33 goals conceded per match, while Flamurtari, on the road, concedes 1.21, suggesting a tight contest dominated by the home side’s solidity. The model favours an away win, with a 36 % chance, followed closely by a 32 % home win and a 31 % draw. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal outcome at 28 %. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.7 % probability. Pogradeci averages 0.67 goals scored and 0.33 conceded against similar opposition; Flamurtari averages 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded in similar away fixtures. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.2 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 5.5 (97.3 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0 %), Under 4.5 (92.2 %), Home under 2.5 goals (90.3 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (88.8 %). Both teams have recently come off defeats, adding a cautious tone to the low-scoring forecast.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogradeci win
32.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari win
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogradeci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.90
2.40
0.40
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.89
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (21)
2.52
0.90
2.92
0.42
2.00
1.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.17
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.13
1.17
1.06
1.12
1.21
1.21
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.8%
Under 1.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.7%
0-0
12.0%
0-1
11.0%
1-0
10.2%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
6.2%
Pogradeci goals ↓
Flamurtari goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.2%
2.8%
0.8%
1
10%
15%
7.7%
3.0%
0.9%
2
6.2%
7.2%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
3
2.2%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogradeci goals (down), columns = Flamurtari goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Pogradeci is 0.83 points better than Flamurtari in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Pogradeci is 0.80 goals better than Flamurtari in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Pogradeci is 0.29 goals better than Flamurtari in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.23).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pogradeci or Draw
63.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
36%
covers Pogradeci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci or Flamurtari
68.5%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
36%
covers Pogradeci + Flamurtari
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Flamurtari
67.7%
Avg Implied -
32%
31%
36%
covers Draw + Flamurtari
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5
Over
66.0%
Under
34.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5
Over
29.3%
Under
70.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 3.5
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5
Over
68.6%
Under
31.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5
Over
32.2%
Under
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5
Over
11.2%
Under
88.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pogradeci, so a minus line means Pogradeci give that many goals of a start and Flamurtari receive them. At -1, Pogradeci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pogradeci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pogradeci)
Pogradeci -2
4.0%
Draw -2
9.3%
Flamurtari +2
86.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pogradeci)
Pogradeci -1
13.2%
Draw -1
19.1%
Flamurtari +1
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pogradeci)
Pogradeci +1
63.8%
Draw +1
20.5%
Flamurtari -1
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pogradeci)
Pogradeci +2
84.3%
Draw +2
10.6%
Flamurtari -2
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogradeci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.20
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.48
1.50
0.25
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogradeci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.20
0.13
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.00
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (21)
1.19
0.43
1.42
0.17
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Flamurtari) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Flamurtari
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.63
0.60
0.56
0.62
0.71
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Flamurtari over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Burreli
Korabi Peshkopi
Oriku
Bylis
Kastrioti Krujë
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë