Pogradeci are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 72 % chance of a home win, 18 % for a draw and 9 % for a Kastrioti victory. The single most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Pogradeci, a 12.6 % probability. The expected total is 3.1 goals, but the most probable total is 2 goals at 23 %. Pogradeci have been prolific at home, scoring 2.92 and conceding only 0.42 against weaker opponents, while Kastrioti, playing away against stronger sides, have struggled, scoring 0.4 and conceding 3.6. The model’s selections include Away under 3.5 goals (99.3 %), Under 7.5 (98.6 %), Home +2 handicap (97.3 %), Under 6.5 (96.2 %), Away under 2.5 goals (96.1 %), Home or Draw (90.8 %), Home +1 handicap (90.8 %), and Under 5.5 (90.7 %). All probabilities are expressed as percentages and each selection is listed once.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pogradeci win
72.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
18.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë win
9.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pogradeci
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.90
2.40
0.40
1.60
1.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.89
0.33
0.33
1.00
1.17
vs Weaker (21)
2.52
0.90
2.92
0.42
2.00
1.56
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kastrioti Krujë
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.80
1.81
1.56
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (9)
1.11
3.11
2.00
2.50
0.40
3.60
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.24
1.75
1.25
1.22
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.6%
1-0
9.9%
3-0
9.8%
2-1
9.3%
1-1
8.7%
3-1
7.3%
4-0
5.8%
0-0
5.4%
Pogradeci goals ↓
Kastrioti Krujë goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
2.6%
1.3%
0.3%
0.1%
1
9.9%
8.7%
2.9%
0.7%
0.1%
2
13%
9.3%
3.4%
0.8%
0.2%
3
9.8%
7.3%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
4
5.8%
4.3%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pogradeci goals (down), columns = Kastrioti Krujë goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogradeci
2.06
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.36
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.18
Kastrioti Krujë
1.18
Burreli
1.12
Korabi Peshkopi
1.09
FK Kukesi
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Pogradeci is 0.88 points better than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of average points per game (2.06 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Pogradeci
1.91
Kastrioti Krujë
1.33
Besa Kavajë
1.24
Flamurtari
1.10
Oriku
1.10
Bylis
1.10
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.10
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
FK Kukesi
0.97
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
0.94
Burreli
0.82
Pogradeci is 0.58 goals better than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of goals scored per game (1.91 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pogradeci
0.94
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.00
Sopoti Librazhd
1.00
Korabi Peshkopi
1.18
Flamurtari
1.23
Oriku
1.23
Bylis
1.23
Besëlidhja Lezhë
1.23
Besa Kavajë
1.30
Burreli
1.36
FK Kukesi
1.46
Kastrioti Krujë
1.73
Pogradeci is 0.79 goals better than Kastrioti Krujë in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 1.73).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Pogradeci or Draw
90.8%
Avg Implied -
72%
18%
9%
covers Pogradeci + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci or Kastrioti Krujë
81.7%
Avg Implied -
72%
18%
9%
covers Pogradeci + Kastrioti Krujë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Kastrioti Krujë
27.5%
Avg Implied -
72%
18%
9%
covers Draw + Kastrioti Krujë
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5
Over
90.4%
Under
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5
Over
67.9%
Under
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5
Over
41.6%
Under
58.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 3.5
Over
21.0%
Under
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5
Over
52.3%
Under
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5
Over
17.0%
Under
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Pogradeci, so a minus line means Pogradeci give that many goals of a start and Kastrioti Krujë receive them. At -1, Pogradeci must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Pogradeci win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Pogradeci)
Pogradeci -2
28.5%
Draw -2
21.6%
Kastrioti Krujë +2
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Pogradeci)
Pogradeci -1
50.1%
Draw -1
22.4%
Kastrioti Krujë +1
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Pogradeci)
Pogradeci +1
90.8%
Draw +1
6.5%
Kastrioti Krujë -1
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Pogradeci)
Pogradeci +2
97.3%
Draw +2
2.2%
Kastrioti Krujë -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pogradeci
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.43
1.20
0.27
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.11
0.33
0.00
0.33
0.17
0.33
vs Weaker (21)
1.33
0.48
1.50
0.25
1.11
0.78
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kastrioti Krujë
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.80
0.88
0.75
0.36
0.86
vs Stronger (9)
0.78
1.22
1.50
1.25
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.67
0.58
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.8%
Under 0.5
24.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.1%
Under 1.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.3%
Under 2.5
84.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 HT
Over
65.1%
Under
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 HT
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 HT
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.8%
Under
69.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pogradeci
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.20
0.13
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.67
0.56
0.33
0.00
0.83
0.83
vs Weaker (21)
1.19
0.43
1.42
0.17
0.89
0.78
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Kastrioti Krujë) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kastrioti Krujë
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.00
0.94
0.81
0.57
1.21
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.89
0.50
1.25
0.20
2.40
vs Similar (21)
0.95
0.62
1.08
0.67
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogradeci) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.9%
Under 0.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.1%
Under 1.5
45.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.2%
Under 2.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pogradeci over/under 0.5 2H
Over
74.2%
Under
25.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 1.5 2H
Over
32.0%
Under
68.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogradeci over/under 2.5 2H
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.4%
Under
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kastrioti Krujë over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 2H goals
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (21)
€2m
POG (14)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
FK (20)
€1m
Pogradeci and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (6)
€1m
POG (5)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
FK (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
Pogradeci and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KK (7)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
POG (2)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
FK (4)
€0m
Pogradeci and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BK (8)
€1m
POG (7)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
FK (10)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
Pogradeci and Kastrioti Krujë have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Albania: 1st Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Burreli
Korabi Peshkopi
Flamurtari
Oriku
Bylis
Besëlidhja Lezhë
FK Kukesi
Sopoti Librazhd
Besa Kavajë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë