Polonia Bytom are the clear favourites to win, with a 53% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 21% chance of a Chrobry Głogów victory. The model predicts an average of 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being two goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.7% probability. Polonia’s home form shows they average 2.2 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded against similar opposition, while Chrobry Głogów, playing away, average 1.46 goals scored and 1.23 conceded against similar teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 75.3% and Under 3.5 goals at 72.6%. These picks reflect the expected flow of the match, with both sides likely to find the net but the total staying within a moderate range.
Results analysis
Polonia Bytom’s recent form, still on a draw, was buoyed by a 1-1 stalemate against Arka Gdynia, while Chrobry Głogów entered the match on a win after a 2-0 triumph over Ruch Chorzów. The model’s favourite was a Home win, with a 53% probability, and it proved correct as Polonia Bytom secured a 2-0 victory. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, but the 2-0 result was still within the model’s expected range. The model’s selections also hit: Over 1.5 goals came in at 75.3% probability, and Under 3.5 goals at 72.6% probability, both achieved. The outcome matched the forecasted home advantage and goal expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polonia Bytom win✓ Hit
52.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów win✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polonia Bytom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.17
2.64
0.73
1.77
1.54
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
-
-
1.33
2.33
vs Similar (17)
1.94
1.06
2.20
0.70
1.57
1.57
vs Weaker (4)
3.75
0.75
7.00
1.00
2.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
38% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.27
1.62
1.25
1.43
1.29
vs Stronger (5)
1.00
1.80
1.00
1.75
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.62
1.17
1.82
1.09
1.46
1.23
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.3%
Under 2.5
50.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.4%
Under 3.5
72.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
51.6%
No
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-0
10.7%
2-0 ✓
10.0%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
5.7%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.6%
Polonia Bytom goals ↓
Chrobry Głogów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
5.7%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.6%
1.8%
0.4%
2
10.0%
9.7%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
5.6%
5.4%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Bytom goals (down), columns = Chrobry Głogów goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Wisla Krakow
2.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.79
Wieczysta Kraków
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
0.82
Górnik Łęczna
0.79
Tychy 71
0.68
Polonia Bytom is 0.17 points worse than Chrobry Głogów in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.56).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków
2.08
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Stal Mielec
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Tychy 71
1.18
Znicz Pruszków
1.18
Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Polonia Bytom is 0.26 goals better than Chrobry Głogów in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.39).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Wisla Krakow
0.88
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Górnik Łęczna
1.82
Stal Mielec
1.82
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.18
Polonia Bytom is 0.39 goals worse than Chrobry Głogów in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polonia Bytom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.38
1.36
0.45
1.00
0.31
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
-
-
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.41
1.20
0.50
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
62% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.50
0.62
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
1.40
0.25
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.42
0.55
0.36
0.46
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polonia Bytom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.79
1.27
0.27
0.77
1.23
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.67
-
-
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.94
0.65
1.00
0.20
0.86
1.29
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
4.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
54% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.12
0.62
0.93
0.79
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.75
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.75
1.27
0.73
1.00
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
SW (22)
€7m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PW (13)
€3m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
SW (8)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →