Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów face each other in a match that feels almost perfectly balanced, with the model picking a home win but only by a narrow margin. The probabilities are 39% for a Polonia victory, 26% for a draw, and 35% for a Chrobry win, so the game could go either way. The expected total goals sit at 3.1, yet the most likely total is two goals, with a 23% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.9% probability. Polonia’s home form shows they average 1.73 goals scored and 1.36 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, while Chrobry, playing away, averages 1.64 scored and only 0.73 conceded. Suggested picks from the model include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.3%), Under 5.5 (90.5%), Over 1.5 (82.7%), Home +2 handicap (82.5%), and Away under 2.5 goals (80.4%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polonia Bytom win
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów win
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polonia Bytom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.83
1.80
1.47
2.07
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.83
1.73
1.36
1.69
2.23
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
1.50
2.33
2.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.03
1.36
1.14
1.38
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (22)
1.64
0.86
1.70
1.10
1.58
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.7%
Under 1.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.0%
Under 2.5
40.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
63.2%
No
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.0%
0-1
5.7%
2-0
5.6%
0-0
5.6%
Polonia Bytom goals ↓
Chrobry Głogów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.7%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
1
6.0%
12%
8.2%
4.1%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.6%
6.5%
3.3%
1.2%
3
3.0%
4.5%
3.4%
1.7%
0.7%
4
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Bytom goals (down), columns = Chrobry Głogów goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Polonia Bytom is 0.67 points worse than Chrobry Głogów in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Polonia Bytom is 0.33 goals better than Chrobry Głogów in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Polonia Bytom is 1.67 goals worse than Chrobry Głogów in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Polonia Bytom or Draw
64.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
36%
covers Polonia Bytom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom or Chrobry Głogów
74.0%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
36%
covers Polonia Bytom + Chrobry Głogów
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
61.5%
Avg Implied -
39%
26%
36%
covers Draw + Chrobry Głogów
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5
Over
79.6%
Under
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5
Over
78.1%
Under
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5
Over
44.8%
Under
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5
Over
19.6%
Under
80.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Polonia Bytom, so a minus line means Polonia Bytom give that many goals of a start and Chrobry Głogów receive them. At -1, Polonia Bytom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Polonia Bytom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Polonia Bytom)
Polonia Bytom -2
7.9%
Draw -2
11.8%
Chrobry Głogów +2
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Polonia Bytom)
Polonia Bytom -1
19.7%
Draw -1
18.8%
Chrobry Głogów +1
61.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Polonia Bytom)
Polonia Bytom +1
64.5%
Draw +1
18.0%
Chrobry Głogów -1
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Polonia Bytom)
Polonia Bytom +2
82.5%
Draw +2
10.8%
Chrobry Głogów -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polonia Bytom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.40
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
1.09
0.36
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.79
0.71
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.41
0.90
0.60
0.67
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polonia Bytom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.80
1.07
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.17
0.64
1.00
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.00
1.33
1.33
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
0.80
0.50
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Chrobry Głogów have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów