PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Siedlce Result & Analysis

Date: 22/02/2026
Time: 16:30
Final 1-1
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
Vs
53%
26%
21%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Polonia Bytom win✗ Miss
52.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce win✗ Miss
21.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-712L70W20W32W41W22D24L20W23L13LA·POL25/10A·GOC28/10H·ZNI02/11A·SLA09/11H·STA22/11H·GÓR28/11A·AVI03/12H·CHR07/12H·ŁKS07/02A·STA15/02
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.111.262.540.851.711.64
vs Stronger (3)1.332.33--1.332.33
vs Similar (20)1.901.202.170.831.501.75
vs Weaker (4)3.750.757.001.002.670.67
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L22D31W11D00D00D02L02L01L21WH·POG04/10A·MIE17/10H·ŁKS25/10A·STA02/11A·STA08/11H·WIS23/11A·POL29/11H·WIE06/12A·ODR06/02H·RUC13/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.201.101.361.001.061.19
vs Stronger (23)1.301.041.450.911.171.17
vs Similar (6)0.671.330.501.500.751.25
vs Weaker (1)2.001.002.001.00--
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.4%
Under 1.5
23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.8%
Under 2.5
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.7%
Under 3.5
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
12.6%
1-0
10.2%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
9.7%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
5.7%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.5%
Polonia Bytom goals ↓
Pogoń Siedlce goals →
01234
07.8%5.6%3.4%1.1%0.3%
110%13%5.7%1.9%0.5%
29.7%9.7%4.9%1.6%0.4%
35.5%5.5%2.8%0.9%0.2%
42.3%2.3%1.2%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Bytom goals (down), columns = Pogoń Siedlce goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Wisla Krakow
2.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.79
Wieczysta Kraków
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
0.82
Górnik Łęczna
0.79
Tychy 71
0.68
Polonia Bytom is 0.32 points better than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.06).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków
2.08
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Stal Mielec
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Znicz Pruszków
1.18
Tychy 71
1.18
Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Polonia Bytom is 0.68 goals better than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 0.97).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Wisla Krakow
0.88
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Stal Mielec
1.82
Górnik Łęczna
1.82
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.18
Polonia Bytom is 0.21 goals worse than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.26).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D40W10W20W21W01L11D20W10W02LA·POL25/10A·GOC28/10H·ZNI02/11A·SLA09/11H·STA22/11H·GÓR28/11A·AVI03/12H·CHR07/12H·ŁKS07/02A·STA15/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.150.411.380.380.930.43
vs Stronger (3)1.000.67--1.000.67
vs Similar (20)1.000.451.250.420.620.50
vs Weaker (4)2.000.003.000.001.670.00
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L21W11D00D00D00D01L00D01L01LH·POG04/10A·MIE17/10H·ŁKS25/10A·STA02/11A·STA08/11H·WIS23/11A·POL29/11H·WIE06/12A·ODR06/02H·RUC13/02
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.530.570.430.440.62
vs Stronger (23)0.570.570.550.360.580.75
vs Similar (6)0.170.500.501.000.000.25
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L30W10W12L20W21W13L00D13L11DA·POL25/10A·GOC28/10H·ZNI02/11A·SLA09/11H·STA22/11H·GÓR28/11A·AVI03/12H·CHR07/12H·ŁKS07/02A·STA15/02
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.960.851.150.460.791.21
vs Stronger (3)0.331.67--0.331.67
vs Similar (20)0.900.750.920.420.881.25
vs Weaker (4)1.750.754.001.001.000.67
Clean sheet %52% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L20W11D00D00D01L02L00D20WH·POG04/10A·MIE17/10H·ŁKS25/10A·STA02/11A·STA08/11H·WIS23/11A·POL29/11H·WIE06/12A·ODR06/02H·RUC13/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.570.790.570.620.56
vs Stronger (23)0.740.480.910.550.580.42
vs Similar (6)0.500.830.000.500.751.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.001.001.00--
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.3%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
SW (22)
€7m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
Polonia Bytom's squad is €1m more valuable than Pogoń Siedlce's (€3m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PW (13)
€3m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Siedlce have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Siedlce have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
SW (8)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Siedlce have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
PB wins
0
Draws
1
PS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Siedlce · H/A from PB
DateH/AGameScore
17/08/25APogoń Siedlce Vs PB2-0

Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/02/26AStal Rzeszów Vs PB3-1
07/02/26HPB Vs ŁKS Łódź2-3
07/12/25HPB Vs Chrobry Głogów2-0
03/12/25AAvia Świdnik Vs PB4-2
28/11/25HPB Vs Górnik Łęczna2-2
22/11/25HPB Vs Stal Mielec4-1
09/11/25ASlask Wroclaw Vs PB2-3
02/11/25HPB Vs Znicz Pruszków2-0
28/10/25AGoczałkowice Zdrój B Vs PB0-7
25/10/25APolonia Warszawa Vs PB2-1

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/02/26HPS Vs Ruch Chorzów2-1
06/02/26AOdra Opole Vs PS1-0
06/12/25HPS Vs Wieczysta Kraków0-2
29/11/25APolonia Warszawa Vs PS2-0
23/11/25HPS Vs Wisla Krakow0-0
08/11/25AStal Mielec Vs PS0-0
02/11/25AStal Rzeszów Vs PS1-1
25/10/25HPS Vs ŁKS Łódź3-1
17/10/25AMiedz Legnica Vs PS2-2
04/10/25HPS Vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL1.74
HomeWWDWL2.08
AwayLWWLL1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%62%43%
AVG goals3.373.383.36
Over 1.5 %81%85%79%
Over 2.5 %59%54%64%
Over 3.5 %44%46%43%
Scored2.112.541.71
Conceded1.260.851.64
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet37%46%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLW1.08
HomeLWDLW1.25
AwayDDDLL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%29%23%
AVG goals2.482.462.50
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %44%46%42%
Over 3.5 %22%21%23%
Scored1.141.211.08
Conceded1.341.251.42
BTTS62%67%58%
Clean Sheet16%21%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3371
61%
2.2
7229+43
3.1
88%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6252.20.9
-
2Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków3663
50%
1.8
7550+25
3.5
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5152.11.4
-
3Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw3359
48%
1.8
6647+19
3.4
94%
76%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2322.01.4
-
4Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3656
44%
1.6
5039+11
2.5
81%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.1
-
5ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3555
43%
1.6
5749+8
3.0
86%
66%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.4
-
6Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3453
41%
1.6
5446+8
2.9
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.61.4
-
7Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3553
43%
1.5
5452+2
3.0
83%
60%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.51.5
-
8Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3452
44%
1.5
5253-1
3.1
88%
65%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.6
-
9Puszcza NiepołomicePuszcza Niepołomice3449
35%
1.4
4540+5
2.5
82%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.31.2
-
10Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom3447
38%
1.4
5650+6
3.1
85%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.5
-
11Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki3445
32%
1.3
5154-3
3.1
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.51.6
-
12Odra OpoleOdra Opole3444
32%
1.3
3440-6
2.2
76%
35%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.2
-
13Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3443
35%
1.3
4960-11
3.2
85%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.41.8
-
14Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce3436
26%
1.1
3343-10
2.2
74%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
15Stal MielecStal Mielec3436
29%
1.1
5162-11
3.3
91%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.8
-
16Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3428
21%
0.8
4068-28
3.2
76%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
17Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3427
15%
0.8
3962-23
3.0
91%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
18Tychy 71Tychy 713423
15%
0.7
4074-34
3.4
79%
68%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
Poland: I Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

← all matches