Polonia Bytom is expected to emerge victorious, coming off a draw against Pogoń Siedlce. The home side's recent form has been inconsistent, with a mix of wins and losses, but they have been scoring at a rate of 2.5 goals per game at home. In contrast, Pogoń Siedlce have struggled to find the back of the net, averaging just 0.7 goals scored per game when playing away against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a 53% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.9, with the most likely score being 1-1 at 12.1%. The most likely total number of goals is 2.
Polonia Bytom's home scoring and conceding rates are 2.5 and 2.0 goals per game, respectively. Pogoń Siedlce's away scoring and conceding rates are 0.7 and 1.8 goals per game, respectively.
The model's selection is the Home win, with a suggested pick of Over 1.5 at 79.3% probability, and an edge of 4%. The probabilities for the other suggested picks are: Home win 53%, Draw 25%, Away win 22%, Over 1.5 79.3%, Under 1.5 20.7%.
The Poland: I Liga match between Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Siedlce ended in a surprise draw, with the final score 2-2, extending Polonia Bytom's run of consecutive draws. The pre-match favourite, Polonia Bytom, to win, had a 53% probability, but the model's selection of a home win was incorrect, as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection had a 53% probability, but the model was wrong. The model's second selection, Over 1.5, had a 79.3% probability and hit, as the total goals were indeed over 1.5.
Polonia Bytom| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.57 | 1.87 | 1.27 | 1.93 | 1.87 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.78 | 1.61 | 1.83 | 1.17 | 1.73 | 2.09 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 3.25 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Pogoń Siedlce| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.43 | 1.13 | 1.40 | 0.73 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 0.91 | 1.43 | 1.17 | 1.25 | 0.64 | 1.64 |
| vs Similar (7) | 1.00 | 1.43 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Pogoń Siedlce goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.7% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.0% | 12% | 6.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 9.0% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Polonia Bytom| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.50 | 1.13 | 0.33 | 0.93 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.96 | 0.57 | 1.17 | 0.33 | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 2.00 | 0.25 | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Pogoń Siedlce| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 0.39 | 0.57 | 0.50 | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.82 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.29 | 0.57 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Polonia Bytom| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.07 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.83 | 1.04 | 0.67 | 0.83 | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.25 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Pogoń Siedlce| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.57 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.93 | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (23) | 0.52 | 0.87 | 0.67 | 0.92 | 0.36 | 0.82 |
| vs Similar (7) | 0.71 | 0.86 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 79.3% | 1.23 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | +4.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/08/25 | A | 2-0 |
Polonia Bytom| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 24/07/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
Pogoń Siedlce| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 15/05/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Miedz Legnica | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 2.2 | 83% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | - |
| 2 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki | 6 | 12 | 50% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 2.5 | 67% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 3 | ŁKS Łódź | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Chrobry Głogów | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 2.5 | 67% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.7 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.3 | 83% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Polonia Warszawa | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 3.0 | 67% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 7 | Warta Poznań | 6 | 9 | 50% | 1.5 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 3.5 | 83% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Pogoń Siedlce | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 9 | Odra Opole | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 6 | 6 | +0 | 2.0 | 50% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 10 | Stal Mielec | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 100% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 11 | Nieciecza | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Lechia Gdansk | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 22 | 15 | 5 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 13 | Ruch Chorzów | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1.7 | 67% | 0% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 14 | Puszcza Niepołomice | 6 | 6 | 33% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.0 | 50% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 15 | Polonia Bytom | 6 | 6 | 17% | 1.0 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 4.5 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2.0 | 2.5 | - |
| 16 | Unia Skierniewice | 6 | 6 | 33% | 1.0 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.3 | 67% | 50% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 6 | 5 | 0% | 0.8 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 3.0 | 100% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Stal Rzeszów | 6 | 5 | 17% | 0.8 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 2.7 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.7 | 2.0 | - |