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Polonia Bytom vs Polonia Warszawa Result & Analysis

Date: 04/05/2026
Time: 16:00
Final 3-2
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
Vs
38%
28%
34%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Polonia Bytom win✓ Hit
38.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa win✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-413L11D12L01L11D11D11D12L34L20WA·STA15/02H·POG22/02A·POG28/02H·RUC08/03H·TYC21/03A·MIE07/04H·WIS12/04A·PUS18/04A·WIE23/04A·ODR26/04
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.301.800.931.731.67
vs Stronger (3)1.002.001.001.001.002.50
vs Similar (23)1.781.301.920.921.601.80
vs Weaker (4)2.250.751.001.002.670.67
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D32W21W01L23L11D12L04L20W10WH·ZNI14/02A·RUC21/02A·WIE02/03H·ŁKS09/03A·POG14/03H·MIE21/03A·PUS06/04H·SLA10/04A·STA17/04H·CHR25/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.501.401.271.531.731.27
vs Stronger (1)2.001.00--2.001.00
vs Similar (27)1.521.521.211.641.851.38
vs Weaker (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%25%7%015%125%222%316%49%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.9%
Under 1.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.8%
Under 2.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
30.6%
Under 3.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.7%
No
42.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.0%
1-0
7.7%
0-0
7.3%
0-1
7.1%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
5.8%
Polonia Bytom goals ↓
Polonia Warszawa goals →
01234
07.3%7.1%5.5%2.5%0.8%
17.7%13%8.0%3.6%1.2%
26.4%8.6%5.8%2.6%0.9%
33.1%4.2%2.8%1.3%0.4%
41.1%1.5%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Bytom goals (down), columns = Polonia Warszawa goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Wisla Krakow
2.15
Slask Wroclaw
1.79
Wieczysta Kraków
1.75
ŁKS Łódź
1.57
Ruch Chorzów
1.56
Chrobry Głogów
1.56
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Polonia Warszawa
1.51
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.44
Polonia Bytom
1.38
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.32
Odra Opole
1.29
Stal Rzeszów
1.26
Pogoń Siedlce
1.06
Stal Mielec
1.06
Znicz Pruszków
0.82
Górnik Łęczna
0.79
Tychy 71
0.68
Polonia Bytom is 0.13 points worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of average points per game (1.38 vs 1.51).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wisla Krakow
2.18
Wieczysta Kraków
2.08
Slask Wroclaw
2.00
Polonia Bytom
1.65
ŁKS Łódź
1.63
Ruch Chorzów
1.59
Polonia Warszawa
1.54
Miedz Legnica
1.53
Stal Mielec
1.50
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.50
Stal Rzeszów
1.44
Chrobry Głogów
1.39
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.32
Znicz Pruszków
1.18
Tychy 71
1.18
Górnik Łęczna
1.15
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97
Polonia Bytom is 0.10 goals better than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals scored per game (1.65 vs 1.54).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Wisla Krakow
0.88
Chrobry Głogów
1.08
Odra Opole
1.18
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.18
Pogoń Siedlce
1.26
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Wieczysta Kraków
1.39
ŁKS Łódź
1.40
Slask Wroclaw
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.47
Polonia Warszawa
1.49
Miedz Legnica
1.56
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.59
Stal Rzeszów
1.76
Stal Mielec
1.82
Górnik Łęczna
1.82
Znicz Pruszków
2.00
Tychy 71
2.18
Polonia Bytom is 0.02 goals better than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.47 vs 1.49).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L10W10W00D10W01L00D12L20W00DA·STA15/02H·POG22/02A·POG28/02H·RUC08/03H·TYC21/03A·MIE07/04H·WIS12/04A·PUS18/04A·WIE23/04A·ODR26/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.401.070.330.870.47
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.000.000.500.50
vs Similar (23)0.960.481.150.380.700.60
vs Weaker (4)1.500.001.000.001.670.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D20W00D01L02L00D10W01L00D00DH·ZNI14/02A·RUC21/02A·WIE02/03H·ŁKS09/03A·POG14/03H·MIE21/03A·PUS06/04H·SLA10/04A·STA17/04H·CHR25/04
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.330.670.870.33
vs Stronger (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
vs Similar (27)0.590.520.290.710.920.31
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L02L01L01L10W11D00D14L20WA·STA15/02H·POG22/02A·POG28/02H·RUC08/03H·TYC21/03A·MIE07/04H·WIS12/04A·PUS18/04A·WIE23/04A·ODR26/04
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.900.730.600.871.20
vs Stronger (3)0.671.671.001.000.502.00
vs Similar (23)0.830.830.770.540.901.20
vs Weaker (4)0.750.750.001.001.000.67
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D12L21W00D21W11D02L03L20W10WH·ZNI14/02A·RUC21/02A·WIE02/03H·ŁKS09/03A·POG14/03H·MIE21/03A·PUS06/04H·SLA10/04A·STA17/04H·CHR25/04
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.900.930.870.870.93
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (27)0.931.000.930.930.921.08
vs Weaker (2)0.500.001.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.577.9%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WK (22)
€12m
SW (22)
€7m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
Polonia Bytom's squad is €2m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€3m vs €5m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WK (8)
€5m
PW (13)
€3m
OO (8)
€2m
SW (5)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
Polonia Bytom's attack is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €3m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SW (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
WK (3)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Polonia Warszawa have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (12)
€5m
WK (11)
€5m
SW (8)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
Polonia Bytom's defence is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
PB wins
0
Draws
1
PW wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Polonia Bytom vs Polonia Warszawa · H/A from PB
DateH/AGameScore
25/10/25APolonia Warszawa Vs PB2-1

Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
26/04/26AOdra Opole Vs PB0-2
23/04/26AWieczysta Kraków Vs PB4-3
18/04/26APuszcza Niepołomice Vs PB2-1
12/04/26HPB Vs Wisla Krakow1-1
07/04/26AMiedz Legnica Vs PB1-1
21/03/26HPB Vs Tychy 711-1
08/03/26HPB Vs Ruch Chorzów0-1
28/02/26APogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Vs PB2-1
22/02/26HPB Vs Pogoń Siedlce1-1
15/02/26AStal Rzeszów Vs PB3-1

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HPW Vs Chrobry Głogów1-0
17/04/26AStal Rzeszów Vs PW0-2
10/04/26HPW Vs Slask Wroclaw0-4
06/04/26APuszcza Niepołomice Vs PW2-1
21/03/26HPW Vs Miedz Legnica1-1
14/03/26APogoń Grod. Mazowiecki Vs PW3-2
09/03/26HPW Vs ŁKS Łódź0-1
02/03/26AWieczysta Kraków Vs PW1-2
21/02/26ARuch Chorzów Vs PW2-3
14/02/26HPW Vs Znicz Pruszków0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLLW1.50
HomeLDLDD1.76
AwayLDLLW1.26
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%47%37%
AVG goals3.193.003.37
Over 1.5 %83%82%84%
Over 2.5 %53%41%63%
Over 3.5 %36%35%37%
Scored1.892.121.68
Conceded1.310.881.68
BTTS56%53%58%
Clean Sheet31%35%26%
Corners---
Cards---
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWW1.64
HomeDLDLW1.48
AwayWWLLW1.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%40%48%
AVG goals2.822.882.76
Over 1.5 %80%72%88%
Over 2.5 %56%56%56%
Over 3.5 %28%32%24%
Scored1.541.441.64
Conceded1.281.441.12
BTTS68%60%76%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3371
61%
2.2
7229+43
3.1
88%
55%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6252.20.9
-
2Wieczysta KrakówWieczysta Kraków3663
50%
1.8
7550+25
3.5
89%
61%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5152.11.4
-
3Slask WroclawSlask Wroclaw3359
48%
1.8
6647+19
3.4
94%
76%
52%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
2322.01.4
-
4Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3656
44%
1.6
5039+11
2.5
81%
50%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.41.1
-
5ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3555
43%
1.6
5749+8
3.0
86%
66%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.61.4
-
6Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3453
41%
1.6
5446+8
2.9
88%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.61.4
-
7Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3553
43%
1.5
5452+2
3.0
83%
60%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.51.5
-
8Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3452
44%
1.5
5253-1
3.1
88%
65%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.51.6
-
9Puszcza NiepołomicePuszcza Niepołomice3449
35%
1.4
4540+5
2.5
82%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.31.2
-
10Polonia BytomPolonia Bytom3447
38%
1.4
5650+6
3.1
85%
56%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.61.5
-
11Pogoń Grod. MazowieckiPogoń Grod. Mazowiecki3445
32%
1.3
5154-3
3.1
88%
71%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.51.6
-
12Odra OpoleOdra Opole3444
32%
1.3
3440-6
2.2
76%
35%
12%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.01.2
-
13Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3443
35%
1.3
4960-11
3.2
85%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.41.8
-
14Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce3436
26%
1.1
3343-10
2.2
74%
38%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
15Stal MielecStal Mielec3436
29%
1.1
5162-11
3.3
91%
71%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.8
-
16Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3428
21%
0.8
4068-28
3.2
76%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
17Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3427
15%
0.8
3962-23
3.0
91%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
18Tychy 71Tychy 713423
15%
0.7
4074-34
3.4
79%
68%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
Poland: I Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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