Polonia Bytom and Ruch Chorzów are locked in a tightly contested fixture, with the model favouring a home win. The odds are evenly split: a 40 % chance for Polonia, 26 % for a draw, and 35 % for Ruch. The expected total of 3.1 goals points to a lively match, yet the most probable total is 2 goals, with a 22 % chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.7 % probability, reflecting the balanced nature of the encounter.
Polonia’s home form shows they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded against similar opposition, while Ruch, on the road, averages 1.47 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both sides have similar defensive output, suggesting a modest goal tally.
The model’s selections include: Under 7.5 (98.5 %), Under 6.5 (95.9 %), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.7 %), Under 5.5 (90.2 %), Over 1.5 (83.1 %), Home +2 handicap (83.0 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (80.6 %). These picks reflect the expectation of a controlled, low-scoring affair.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polonia Bytom win
42.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów win
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polonia Bytom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.83
1.80
1.47
2.07
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.83
1.73
1.36
1.69
2.23
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
1.50
2.33
2.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ruch Chorzów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.23
1.54
1.31
1.29
1.18
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (27)
1.48
1.15
1.58
1.33
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.5%
Under 3.5
62.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.8%
No
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.0%
1-2
7.7%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
6.3%
0-0
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
Polonia Bytom goals ↓
Ruch Chorzów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.4%
4.6%
2.2%
0.8%
1
6.4%
12%
7.7%
3.7%
1.3%
2
6.3%
9.0%
6.4%
3.1%
1.1%
3
3.5%
5.0%
3.6%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.4%
2.1%
1.5%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Bytom goals (down), columns = Ruch Chorzów goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Polonia Bytom is 0.17 points worse than Ruch Chorzów in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Polonia Bytom is 1.50 goals better than Ruch Chorzów in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Polonia Bytom is 1.33 goals worse than Ruch Chorzów in terms of goals conceded per game (2.50 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Polonia Bytom or Draw
67.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Polonia Bytom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom or Ruch Chorzów
74.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Polonia Bytom + Ruch Chorzów
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
57.9%
Avg Implied -
42%
26%
32%
covers Draw + Ruch Chorzów
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5
Over
81.1%
Under
18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5
Over
23.4%
Under
76.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 3.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5
Over
76.2%
Under
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Polonia Bytom, so a minus line means Polonia Bytom give that many goals of a start and Ruch Chorzów receive them. At -1, Polonia Bytom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Polonia Bytom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Polonia Bytom)
Polonia Bytom -2
9.4%
Draw -2
13.0%
Ruch Chorzów +2
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Polonia Bytom)
Polonia Bytom -1
22.3%
Draw -1
19.8%
Ruch Chorzów +1
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Polonia Bytom)
Polonia Bytom +1
67.9%
Draw +1
16.9%
Ruch Chorzów -1
15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Polonia Bytom)
Polonia Bytom +2
84.8%
Draw +2
9.6%
Ruch Chorzów -2
5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polonia Bytom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.40
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
1.09
0.36
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ruch Chorzów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.85
0.54
0.88
0.41
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.48
0.83
0.58
0.93
0.40
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polonia Bytom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.80
1.07
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.17
0.64
1.00
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.00
1.33
1.33
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ruch Chorzów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.69
0.77
0.41
0.76
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.59
0.67
0.75
0.75
0.47
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ruch Chorzów · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Szczepan26%
Soma Novothny23%
Michał Feliks22%
Tomasz Swędrowski21%
Bartlomiej Baranski14%
Tomás Podstawski10%
Robert Dadok10%
Adam Vlkanova8%
Mateusz Bartolewski7%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Josema7%
Łukasz Moneta6%
Patryk Sikora5%
Kacper Michalski5%
Przemysław Szur5%
Juliusz Letniowski4%
Miłosz Kozak4%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Filip Starzyński0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Szymon Szymański0%
Filip Wilak0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maciej Sadlok42%
Tomás Podstawski40%
Remigiusz Szywacz40%
Patryk Stępiński23%
Daniel Szczepan23%
Juliusz Letniowski22%
Michał Feliks22%
Przemysław Szur20%
Paweł Baranowski17%
Adam Vlkanova17%
Miłosz Kozak16%
Tomasz Swędrowski16%
Kacper Michalski15%
Mateusz Bartolewski15%
Dante Stipica14%
Bartlomiej Baranski14%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk13%
Robert Dadok10%
Szymon Szymański10%
Wiktor Długosz9%
Soma Novothny8%
Dominik Steczyk8%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Josema7%
Łukasz Moneta6%
Patryk Sikora5%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Filip Starzyński0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Filip Wilak0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miłosz Kozak20%
Adam Vlkanova17%
Soma Novothny15%
Mateusz Bartolewski15%
Filip Wilak12%
Łukasz Moneta11%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Tomasz Swędrowski5%
Michał Feliks4%
Filip Starzyński4%
Daniel Szczepan3%
Szymon Szymański3%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Kacper Michalski0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Juliusz Letniowski0%
Tomás Podstawski0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Josema0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Robert Dadok0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Przemysław Szur0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Patryk Sikora0%
Bartlomiej Baranski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robert Dadok30%
Daniel Szczepan26%
Soma Novothny23%
Filip Wilak12%
Miłosz Kozak12%
Juliusz Letniowski9%
Adam Vlkanova8%
Filip Starzyński4%
Mateusz Bartolewski4%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Kacper Michalski0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Tomás Podstawski0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Łukasz Moneta0%
Tomasz Swędrowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Josema0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Michał Feliks0%
Szymon Szymański0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Przemysław Szur0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Patryk Sikora0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Bartlomiej Baranski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Ruch Chorzów have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Ruch Chorzów have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Ruch Chorzów have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Polonia Bytom and Ruch Chorzów have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Puszcza Niepołomice
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów