This match is expected to be a closely contested home win for Polonia Bytom against Warta Poznań. Recent form suggests Polonia Bytom is coming off a draw, while Warta Poznań is on a 2-game winning run. The model predicts a 50% chance of a home win, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 24% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with the most likely total number of goals being 2.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.5%. Polonia Bytom's recent home form shows they score an average of 1 goal at home, while conceding 1 goal. Away from home, Warta Poznań scores 0.6 goals on average, but concedes 1.73 goals.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, which has a 78.4% probability of hitting. Other selections include Home win (50%), Draw (26%), and Away win (24%). The home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 24%.
Results analysis
Polonia Bytom's home win extends their recent run of inconsistent form, having drawn their previous match. In the end, the home team's winning streak was the correct call, as the actual result was indeed a home win. The model's selection, home win, held a 50% pre-match probability, and it proved correct. The suggested picks largely came in, with over 1.5 goals hitting at 78.4%. The final score of 4-3 was a high-scoring affair, fitting with the model's expected total goals of 2.8.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polonia Bytom win✓ Hit
49.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polonia Bytom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.50
1.87
1.20
2.00
1.80
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
1.92
1.58
2.00
1.23
1.82
2.00
vs Weaker (3)
3.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.43
0.50
1.44
0.71
1.43
vs Stronger (29)
0.59
1.48
0.47
1.53
0.71
1.43
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.6%
1-0
9.0%
2-0
8.6%
0-0
7.1%
1-2
6.4%
0-1
5.6%
3-1
5.5%
Polonia Bytom goals ↓
Warta Poznań goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
5.6%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
1
9.0%
12%
6.4%
2.4%
0.7%
2
8.6%
9.6%
5.4%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.8%
5.5%
3.1%
1.1%
0.3%
4
2.1%
2.3%
1.3%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Bytom goals (down), columns = Warta Poznań goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.20
Polonia Warszawa
2.00
Miedz Legnica
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
2.00
Arka Gdynia
1.80
Warta Poznań
1.80
Stal Mielec
1.60
Chrobry Głogów
1.40
Ruch Chorzów
1.40
Odra Opole
1.40
Unia Skierniewice
1.20
Nieciecza
1.20
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
1.00
Lechia Gdansk
0.80
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.60
Stal Rzeszów
0.40
Polonia Bytom is 0.80 points worse than Warta Poznań in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stal Mielec
2.20
Polonia Bytom
2.20
Warta Poznań
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
2.00
Arka Gdynia
1.60
Chrobry Głogów
1.60
Polonia Warszawa
1.60
Miedz Legnica
1.60
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.60
Podbeskidzie
1.60
Nieciecza
1.40
Odra Opole
1.20
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.60
Ruch Chorzów
0.60
Lechia Gdansk
0.60
Stal Rzeszów
0.60
Polonia Bytom is 0.20 goals better than Warta Poznań in terms of goals scored per game (2.20 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.40
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.60
Arka Gdynia
0.80
Polonia Warszawa
0.80
Chrobry Głogów
1.00
Ruch Chorzów
1.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
1.20
Odra Opole
1.20
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.40
Warta Poznań
1.60
Unia Skierniewice
1.60
Nieciecza
1.60
Podbeskidzie
1.60
Lechia Gdansk
1.80
Stal Mielec
2.20
Stal Rzeszów
2.40
Polonia Bytom
2.80
Polonia Bytom is 1.20 goals worse than Warta Poznań in terms of goals conceded per game (2.80 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polonia Bytom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.47
1.20
0.33
0.93
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
1.04
0.54
1.31
0.38
0.73
0.73
vs Weaker (3)
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.13
0.83
0.12
0.81
0.14
0.86
vs Stronger (29)
0.14
0.86
0.13
0.87
0.14
0.86
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polonia Bytom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.03
0.67
0.87
1.07
1.20
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
1.04
0.69
0.85
1.09
1.27
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Warta Poznań) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Warta Poznań
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.60
0.38
0.62
0.57
0.57
vs Stronger (29)
0.45
0.62
0.33
0.67
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Warta Poznań over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Warta Poznań · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kajetan Szmyt21%
Adam Zreľák14%
Maciej Żurawski14%
Mateusz Kupczak12%
Márton Eppel10%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Stefan Savić7%
Miguel Luís6%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Dario Vizinger3%
Konrad Matuszewski3%
Dawid Szymonowicz3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz31%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos28%
Dario Vizinger28%
Mateusz Kupczak19%
Maciej Żurawski17%
Mohamed Mezghrani17%
Jakub Bartkowski17%
Michał Kopczyński14%
Dawid Szymonowicz13%
Filip Borowski12%
Kajetan Szmyt12%
Jedrzej Grobelny12%
Stefan Savić10%
Konrad Matuszewski10%
Adrian Lis10%
Miguel Luís9%
Tomas Prikryl9%
Bogdan Țîru8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Jakub Kiełb5%
Márton Eppel5%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dario Vizinger10%
Jakub Kiełb10%
Mohamed Mezghrani8%
Adam Zreľák7%
Konrad Matuszewski7%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Tomas Prikryl5%
Niilo Mäenpää4%
Filip Borowski4%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos4%
Stefan Savić3%
Miguel Luís3%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Mateusz Kupczak0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Márton Eppel0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Márton Eppel14%
Mateusz Kupczak9%
Adam Zreľák7%
Dario Vizinger7%
Wiktor Pleśnierowicz6%
Kajetan Szmyt6%
Miguel Luís0%
Michał Kopczyński0%
Dimitrios Stavropoulos0%
Mohamed Mezghrani0%
Jakub Bartkowski0%
Maciej Żurawski0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Adrian Lis0%
Jakub Kiełb0%
Bogdan Țîru0%
Niilo Mäenpää0%
Tomas Prikryl0%
Stefan Savić0%
Konrad Matuszewski0%
Jedrzej Grobelny0%
Filip Borowski0%
Wiktor Kaminski0%
Kacper Przybylko0%
Jakub Paszkowski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
Miedz Legnica
ŁKS Łódź
Polonia Warszawa
Arka Gdynia
Stal Mielec
Chrobry Głogów
Odra Opole
Ruch Chorzów
Nieciecza
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Pogoń Siedlce
Lechia Gdansk
Puszcza Niepołomice
Stal Rzeszów