Polonia Warszawa and Chrobry Głogów are locked in a tightly contested fixture, with the model favouring an away win. The expected goal total sits at 2.6, suggesting a modestly open game. The single most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 13.8 % chance. Polonia, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 1.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded, while Chrobry, on the road, averages 1.62 goals scored and 0.85 conceded against comparable opposition. The probabilities for the match outcome are 34 % for a Polonia win, 29 % for a draw, and 37 % for a Chrobry win. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Under 6.5 (98.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (95.5 %), Under 5.5 (95.2 %), Under 4.5 (87.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (86.5 %), and Away under 2.5 goals (85.3 %). Each pick is presented with its exact percentage, reflecting the high confidence in low-scoring outcomes.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polonia Warszawa win
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów win
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polonia Warszawa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.30
1.43
1.21
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.46
1.36
1.36
1.77
1.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.03
1.36
1.14
1.38
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (22)
1.64
0.86
1.70
1.10
1.58
0.67
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.5%
Under 1.5
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.3%
Under 2.5
47.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.1%
Under 3.5
69.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.1%
2-1
7.8%
0-0
7.5%
1-0
6.9%
0-2
6.8%
2-2
5.7%
Polonia Warszawa goals ↓
Chrobry Głogów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
8.1%
6.8%
3.3%
1.2%
1
6.9%
13%
8.8%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.3%
7.8%
5.7%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.3%
3.3%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Warszawa goals (down), columns = Chrobry Głogów goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Polonia Warszawa and Chrobry Głogów are level in average points per game (both 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Polonia Warszawa and Chrobry Głogów are level in goals scored per game (both 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Polonia Warszawa is 0.50 goals worse than Chrobry Głogów in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.83).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Polonia Warszawa or Draw
59.8%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Polonia Warszawa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa or Chrobry Głogów
72.3%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Polonia Warszawa + Chrobry Głogów
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Chrobry Głogów
67.9%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Draw + Chrobry Głogów
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5
Over
72.6%
Under
27.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5
Over
37.1%
Under
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Polonia Warszawa, so a minus line means Polonia Warszawa give that many goals of a start and Chrobry Głogów receive them. At -1, Polonia Warszawa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Polonia Warszawa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa -2
5.0%
Draw -2
9.5%
Chrobry Głogów +2
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa -1
14.5%
Draw -1
17.6%
Chrobry Głogów +1
67.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa +1
59.8%
Draw +1
20.2%
Chrobry Głogów -1
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa +2
80.0%
Draw +2
12.3%
Chrobry Głogów -2
7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polonia Warszawa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.29
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.46
0.27
0.27
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.79
0.71
0.62
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.77
0.41
0.90
0.60
0.67
0.25
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polonia Warszawa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.14
0.86
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.00
1.09
1.09
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Chrobry Głogów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chrobry Głogów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.43
0.57
0.43
0.75
0.44
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.86
0.45
0.80
0.50
0.92
0.42
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chrobry Głogów over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's squad is €2m more valuable than Chrobry Głogów's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's attack is €1m more valuable than Chrobry Głogów's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa and Chrobry Głogów have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa and Chrobry Głogów have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Arka Gdynia
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów