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Polonia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna Result & Analysis

Date: 21/02/2025
Time: 17:00
Final 2-1
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Vs
31%
31%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Polonia Warszawa win✓ Hit
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Górnik Łęczna win✗ Miss
37.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W11D32W10W00D10W12L22D20W00DH·TYC20/10A·STA27/10A·WIG30/10H·STA04/11A·ŁKS08/11H·RUC24/11A·ZNI29/11H·WIS03/12H·WIS06/12A·ARK14/02
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.271.201.131.271.40
vs Stronger (3)1.330.672.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)1.001.331.001.251.001.42
vs Weaker (3)3.001.332.000.003.502.00
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Górnik Łęczna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D22D10W11D02L22D22D20W30W22DA·CHR06/10H·ODR18/10H·WIS22/10A·POG26/10H·NIE02/11A·WIS10/11H·TYC23/11H·STA01/12A·STA07/12H·ŁKS16/02
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.031.271.271.400.80
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (27)1.371.071.311.381.430.79
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
66.7%
Under 1.5
33.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
38.7%
Under 2.5
61.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.5%
No
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
12.0%
0-1
11.4%
1-0
9.9%
1-2
7.9%
0-2
7.6%
2-1 ✓
7.0%
2-0
5.9%
Polonia Warszawa goals ↓
Górnik Łęczna goals →
01234
012%11%7.6%3.0%0.9%
19.9%15%7.9%3.1%0.9%
25.9%7.0%4.1%1.6%0.5%
32.0%2.4%1.4%0.6%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Warszawa goals (down), columns = Górnik Łęczna goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arka Gdynia
2.12
Nieciecza
2.09
Wisla Plock
1.94
Wisla Krakow
1.77
Miedz Legnica
1.64
Polonia Warszawa
1.60
Tychy 71
1.56
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
ŁKS Łódź
1.38
Stal Rzeszów
1.03
Chrobry Głogów
0.97
Odra Opole
0.88
Pogoń Siedlce
0.88
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Warta Poznań
0.71
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.68
Polonia Warszawa is 0.13 points better than Górnik Łęczna in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 1.47).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nieciecza
2.06
Arka Gdynia
1.85
Wisla Krakow
1.80
Wisla Plock
1.72
Miedz Legnica
1.58
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
1.47
Tychy 71
1.38
Polonia Warszawa
1.34
Stal Rzeszów
1.24
Pogoń Siedlce
1.12
Chrobry Głogów
1.09
Odra Opole
0.91
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.79
Warta Poznań
0.65
Polonia Warszawa is 0.13 goals worse than Górnik Łęczna in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.47).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arka Gdynia
0.71
Wisla Krakow
0.94
Tychy 71
1.06
Wisla Plock
1.08
Polonia Warszawa
1.11
Nieciecza
1.15
ŁKS Łódź
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.26
Miedz Legnica
1.31
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Pogoń Siedlce
1.56
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.62
Warta Poznań
1.65
Stal Rzeszów
1.74
Chrobry Głogów
1.74
Odra Opole
1.79
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.91
Polonia Warszawa is 0.12 goals better than Górnik Łęczna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.24).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D21W00D00D10W12L02L20W00DH·TYC20/10A·STA27/10A·WIG30/10H·STA04/11A·ŁKS08/11H·RUC24/11A·ZNI29/11H·WIS03/12H·WIS06/12A·ARK14/02
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.570.670.530.600.60
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.500.580.500.500.500.67
vs Weaker (3)1.670.332.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Górnik Łęczna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L00D00D00D01L11D00D10W21WA·CHR06/10H·ODR18/10H·WIS22/10A·POG26/10H·NIE02/11A·WIS10/11H·TYC23/11H·STA01/12A·STA07/12H·ŁKS16/02
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.430.470.470.330.40
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (27)0.440.480.540.540.360.43
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D11D10W00D00D00D20W00D00DH·TYC20/10A·STA27/10A·WIG30/10H·STA04/11A·ŁKS08/11H·RUC24/11A·ZNI29/11H·WIS03/12H·WIS06/12A·ARK14/02
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.700.530.600.670.80
vs Stronger (3)0.670.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.500.750.500.750.500.75
vs Weaker (3)1.331.000.000.002.001.50
Clean sheet %50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Górnik Łęczna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W10W11D02L21W11D20W20W01LA·CHR06/10H·ODR18/10H·WIS22/10A·POG26/10H·NIE02/11A·WIS10/11H·TYC23/11H·STA01/12A·STA07/12H·ŁKS16/02
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.600.800.801.070.40
vs Stronger (1)1.000.001.000.00--
vs Similar (27)0.930.590.770.851.070.36
vs Weaker (2)1.001.001.001.001.001.00
Clean sheet %50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Górnik Łęczna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.581.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
WP (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
PW wins
1
Draws
2
GŁ wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Polonia Warszawa vs Górnik Łęczna · H/A from PW
DateH/AGameScore
10/08/24AGórnik Łęczna Vs PW3-1
12/05/24HPW Vs Górnik Łęczna0-2
11/11/23AGórnik Łęczna Vs PW0-0

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
14/02/25AArka Gdynia Vs PW0-0
06/12/24HPW Vs Wisla Krakow2-0
03/12/24HPW Vs Wisla Krakow2-2
29/11/24AZnicz Pruszków Vs PW2-1
24/11/24HPW Vs Ruch Chorzów1-0
08/11/24AŁKS Łódź Vs PW0-0
04/11/24HPW Vs Stal Rzeszów1-0
30/10/24AWigry Suwałki Vs PW2-3
27/10/24AStal Stalowa Wola Vs PW1-1
20/10/24HPW Vs Tychy 712-1

Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/02/25HGŁ Vs ŁKS Łódź2-2
07/12/24AStal Rzeszów Vs GŁ0-3
01/12/24HGŁ Vs Stal Stalowa Wola2-0
23/11/24HGŁ Vs Tychy 712-2
10/11/24AWisla Plock Vs GŁ2-2
02/11/24HGŁ Vs Nieciecza0-2
26/10/24APogoń Siedlce Vs GŁ1-1
22/10/24HGŁ Vs Wisla Krakow1-0
18/10/24HGŁ Vs Odra Opole2-2
06/10/24AChrobry Głogów Vs GŁ1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 5 Wins / 4 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDWD1.28
HomeWWWDW1.29
AwayDWDLD1.27
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%33%31%
AVG goals2.322.292.35
Over 1.5 %68%67%69%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %18%17%19%
Scored1.121.121.12
Conceded1.201.171.23
BTTS48%38%58%
Clean Sheet28%29%27%
Corners---
Cards---
Górnik Łęczna
Górnik Łęczna
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 3 Wins / 6 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.56
HomeWLDWD1.46
AwayDDDDW1.65
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%33%42%
AVG goals2.282.252.31
Over 1.5 %72%75%69%
Over 2.5 %38%33%42%
Over 3.5 %22%25%19%
Scored1.241.251.23
Conceded1.041.001.08
BTTS52%58%46%
Clean Sheet36%29%42%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia3472
62%
2.1
6324+39
2.6
74%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.90.7
-
2NiecieczaNieciecza3471
62%
2.1
7039+31
3.2
91%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2212.11.1
-
3Wisla PlockWisla Plock3670
56%
1.9
6239+23
2.8
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
4361.71.1
-
4Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3562
51%
1.8
6333+30
2.7
74%
57%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6251.80.9
-
5Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3659
47%
1.6
5747+10
2.9
81%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.61.3
-
6Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3556
46%
1.6
4739+8
2.5
66%
51%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.31.1
-
7Tychy 71Tychy 713453
38%
1.6
4736+11
2.4
68%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3452
41%
1.5
5243+9
2.8
74%
59%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3450
38%
1.5
5042+8
2.7
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
10Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3448
38%
1.4
5046+4
2.8
76%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.51.4
-
11ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3447
38%
1.4
5041+9
2.7
71%
56%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.51.2
-
12Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3435
26%
1.0
4259-17
3.0
76%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.7
-
13Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3433
24%
1.0
3759-22
2.8
79%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
14Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce3430
21%
0.9
3853-15
2.7
79%
50%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
15Odra OpoleOdra Opole3430
21%
0.9
3161-30
2.7
71%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.8
-
16Kotwica KołobrzegKotwica Kołobrzeg3429
18%
0.9
2955-26
2.5
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
17Warta PoznańWarta Poznań3424
18%
0.7
2256-34
2.3
62%
44%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.61.6
-
18Stal Stalowa WolaStal Stalowa Wola3423
12%
0.7
2765-38
2.7
71%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
Poland: I Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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