Polonia Warszawa and Miedź Legnica face a finely balanced contest, with the model favouring an away win. The expected total goals hover around 2.8, but the most likely total is two, and the single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Polonia, playing at home against a similar-strength side, averages 1.42 goals scored and 1.5 conceded, while Miedź, on the road, averages 1.33 goals scored and only 1.0 conceded. The probabilities of each result are 33% for a Polonia win, 28% for a draw, and 40% for a Miedź win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Under 6.5 (97.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Under 5.5 (93.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (85.5%), Away +2 handicap (85.2%), and Under 4.5 (85.1%). Polonia’s recent form shows a loss to Lechia Gdańsk, while Miedź comes off a three-game winning streak, adding to the intrigue of the fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polonia Warszawa win
32.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
27.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica win
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polonia Warszawa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.30
1.43
1.21
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.46
1.36
1.36
1.77
1.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Miedz Legnica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.17
1.63
1.21
1.55
1.09
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
vs Similar (23)
1.57
1.00
1.60
1.07
1.50
0.88
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.20
1.67
1.33
1.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
52.6%
Under 2.5
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
57.4%
No
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
7.9%
2-1
7.8%
0-0
7.4%
1-0
6.9%
0-2
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
Polonia Warszawa goals ↓
Miedz Legnica goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.9%
6.7%
3.3%
1.2%
1
6.9%
13%
8.8%
4.3%
1.6%
2
5.3%
7.8%
5.8%
2.8%
1.0%
3
2.3%
3.4%
2.5%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Warszawa goals (down), columns = Miedz Legnica goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Odra Opole
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Polonia Warszawa is 0.50 points worse than Miedz Legnica in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica are level in goals scored per game (both 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Polonia Warszawa is 0.83 goals worse than Miedz Legnica in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Polonia Warszawa or Draw
60.1%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Polonia Warszawa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa or Miedz Legnica
72.3%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Polonia Warszawa + Miedz Legnica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Miedz Legnica
67.5%
Avg Implied -
32%
28%
40%
covers Draw + Miedz Legnica
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5
Over
73.0%
Under
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5
Over
14.5%
Under
85.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5
Over
77.0%
Under
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5
Over
18.4%
Under
81.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 3.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Polonia Warszawa, so a minus line means Polonia Warszawa give that many goals of a start and Miedz Legnica receive them. At -1, Polonia Warszawa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Polonia Warszawa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa -2
5.1%
Draw -2
9.7%
Miedz Legnica +2
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa -1
14.8%
Draw -1
17.7%
Miedz Legnica +1
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa +1
60.1%
Draw +1
20.0%
Miedz Legnica -1
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa +2
80.2%
Draw +2
12.2%
Miedz Legnica -2
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polonia Warszawa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.29
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.46
0.27
0.27
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Miedz Legnica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.79
0.79
0.36
0.36
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.65
0.57
0.80
0.67
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.80
0.67
1.33
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polonia Warszawa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.14
0.86
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.00
1.09
1.09
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Miedz Legnica) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Miedz Legnica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.53
0.84
0.42
1.18
0.73
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.43
0.80
0.40
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Miedz Legnica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Miedz Legnica · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ángelo Henríquez21%
Chuca20%
Luciano Narsingh17%
Maciej Śliwa12%
Kamil Drygas12%
Giannis Masouras7%
Szymon Matuszek7%
Nemanja Mijušković7%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi7%
Andrzej Niewulis7%
Dawid Drachal6%
Santiago Naveda6%
Olaf Kobacki4%
Maxime Dominguez3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Jens Martin Gammelby0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Hubert Matynia0%
Damian Tront0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Levent Gülen0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Carlos Julio Martínez0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Michael Kostka0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Carlos Julio Martínez50%
Maxime Dominguez34%
Jens Martin Gammelby33%
Nemanja Mijušković32%
Damian Tront30%
Levent Gülen30%
Kamil Drygas29%
Ángelo Henríquez28%
Jon Aurtenetxe25%
Jurich Carolina22%
Dimitar Velkovski21%
Szymon Matuszek21%
Olaf Kobacki21%
Andrzej Niewulis20%
Dawid Drachal19%
Hubert Matynia18%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi17%
Giannis Masouras14%
Santiago Naveda12%
Michael Kostka11%
Jerónimo Cacciabue9%
Kamil Zapolnik8%
Luciano Narsingh7%
Chuca7%
Mateusz Abramowicz5%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dimitar Velkovski21%
Jens Martin Gammelby17%
Olaf Kobacki17%
Maxime Dominguez14%
Hubert Matynia14%
Damian Tront10%
Carlos Julio Martínez8%
Szymon Matuszek7%
Jurich Carolina4%
Nemanja Mijušković4%
Ángelo Henríquez3%
Luciano Narsingh3%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Giannis Masouras0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Kamil Drygas0%
Andrzej Niewulis0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Levent Gülen0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Chuca0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Santiago Naveda0%
Michael Kostka0%
Dawid Drachal0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ángelo Henríquez21%
Kamil Drygas18%
Olaf Kobacki8%
Giannis Masouras7%
Chuca7%
Levent Gülen4%
Michael Kostka4%
Nemanja Mijušković4%
Luciano Narsingh3%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Jerónimo Cacciabue0%
Dimitar Velkovski0%
Jens Martin Gammelby0%
Stefanos Kapino0%
Jurich Carolina0%
Maciej Śliwa0%
Szymon Matuszek0%
Kamil Zapolnik0%
Hubert Matynia0%
Andrzej Niewulis0%
Damian Tront0%
Mateusz Abramowicz0%
Maxime Dominguez0%
Mehdi Lehaire0%
Jon Aurtenetxe0%
Carlos Julio Martínez0%
Paweł Lenarcik0%
Santiago Naveda0%
Dawid Drachal0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica have a similar squad value (both €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's attack is €1m more valuable than Miedz Legnica's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's midfield is €1m less valuable than Miedz Legnica's (€0m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa and Miedz Legnica have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów