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Polonia Warszawa vs Pogoń Siedlce Result & Analysis

Date: 09/04/2025
Time: 18:30
Final 2-1
Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Vs
50%
26%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Poland: I Liga
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Polonia Warszawa win✓ Hit
50.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce win✗ Miss
24.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D20W00D21W11D32W22D21W42W10WH·WIS03/12H·WIS06/12A·ARK14/02H·GÓR21/02H·PUS27/02A·MIE02/03H·KOT09/03A·WAR15/03H·CHR29/03A·ODR05/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.171.471.001.401.33
vs Stronger (3)1.330.672.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (23)1.221.221.331.081.091.36
vs Weaker (4)2.751.252.000.003.001.67
Clean sheet %30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L01L01L11D11D13L02L00D42W11DA·WAR24/11A·CHR01/12H·ODR08/12H·RUC17/02A·NIE22/02H·WIS28/02A·TYC07/03H·STA16/03A·STA30/03H·ŁKS06/04
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.740.861.641.001.85
vs Stronger (17)0.711.880.892.000.501.75
vs Similar (9)1.331.440.801.002.002.00
vs Weaker (1)1.002.00--1.002.00
Clean sheet %4% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.4%
Under 2.5
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.0%
Under 3.5
67.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
1-0
8.5%
2-0
8.4%
0-0
6.6%
1-2
6.4%
3-1
5.6%
2-2
5.6%
Polonia Warszawa goals ↓
Pogoń Siedlce goals →
01234
06.6%5.3%3.7%1.4%0.4%
18.5%12%6.4%2.5%0.7%
28.4%9.7%5.6%2.2%0.6%
34.9%5.6%3.2%1.3%0.4%
42.1%2.4%1.4%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Warszawa goals (down), columns = Pogoń Siedlce goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arka Gdynia
2.12
Nieciecza
2.09
Wisla Plock
1.94
Wisla Krakow
1.77
Miedz Legnica
1.64
Polonia Warszawa
1.60
Tychy 71
1.56
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.41
ŁKS Łódź
1.38
Stal Rzeszów
1.03
Chrobry Głogów
0.97
Odra Opole
0.88
Pogoń Siedlce
0.88
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Warta Poznań
0.71
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.68
Polonia Warszawa is 0.72 points better than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of average points per game (1.60 vs 0.88).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Nieciecza
2.06
Arka Gdynia
1.85
Wisla Krakow
1.80
Wisla Plock
1.72
Miedz Legnica
1.58
Znicz Pruszków
1.53
Górnik Łęczna
1.47
Ruch Chorzów
1.47
ŁKS Łódź
1.47
Tychy 71
1.38
Polonia Warszawa
1.34
Stal Rzeszów
1.24
Pogoń Siedlce
1.12
Chrobry Głogów
1.09
Odra Opole
0.91
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.85
Stal Stalowa Wola
0.79
Warta Poznań
0.65
Polonia Warszawa is 0.23 goals better than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of goals scored per game (1.34 vs 1.12).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Arka Gdynia
0.71
Wisla Krakow
0.94
Tychy 71
1.06
Wisla Plock
1.08
Polonia Warszawa
1.11
Nieciecza
1.15
ŁKS Łódź
1.21
Górnik Łęczna
1.24
Znicz Pruszków
1.26
Miedz Legnica
1.31
Ruch Chorzów
1.35
Pogoń Siedlce
1.56
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.62
Warta Poznań
1.65
Stal Rzeszów
1.74
Chrobry Głogów
1.74
Odra Opole
1.79
Stal Stalowa Wola
1.91
Polonia Warszawa is 0.44 goals better than Pogoń Siedlce in terms of goals conceded per game (1.11 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W00D21W00D01L20W10W12L00DH·WIS03/12H·WIS06/12A·ARK14/02H·GÓR21/02H·PUS27/02A·MIE02/03H·KOT09/03A·WAR15/03H·CHR29/03A·ODR05/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.470.870.470.530.47
vs Stronger (3)0.670.671.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.570.480.750.420.360.55
vs Weaker (4)1.500.252.000.001.330.33
Clean sheet %63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L00D11D00D01L00D00D21W00DA·WAR24/11A·CHR01/12H·ODR08/12H·RUC17/02A·NIE22/02H·WIS28/02A·TYC07/03H·STA16/03A·STA30/03H·ŁKS06/04
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.260.890.290.930.230.85
vs Stronger (17)0.180.880.331.000.000.75
vs Similar (9)0.331.000.200.800.501.25
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D00D00D11D31W02L11D30W10WH·WIS03/12H·WIS06/12A·ARK14/02H·GÓR21/02H·PUS27/02A·MIE02/03H·KOT09/03A·WAR15/03H·CHR29/03A·ODR05/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.600.530.870.87
vs Stronger (3)0.670.001.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (23)0.650.740.580.670.730.82
vs Weaker (4)1.251.000.000.001.671.33
Clean sheet %50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Pogoń Siedlce) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D01L00D11D12L02L00D21W11DA·WAR24/11A·CHR01/12H·ODR08/12H·RUC17/02A·NIE22/02H·WIS28/02A·TYC07/03H·STA16/03A·STA30/03H·ŁKS06/04
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.850.570.710.771.00
vs Stronger (17)0.531.000.561.000.501.00
vs Similar (9)1.000.440.600.201.500.75
vs Weaker (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
Clean sheet %41% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pogoń Siedlce over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.579.6%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (24)
€13m
WP (25)
€12m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
Polonia Warszawa's squad is €3m more valuable than Pogoń Siedlce's (€5m vs €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WK (8)
€6m
WP (7)
€4m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
WP (0)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's attack is €2m more valuable than Pogoń Siedlce's (€3m vs €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€3m
WK (4)
€2m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa and Pogoń Siedlce have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WP (9)
€6m
WK (12)
€5m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's defence is €1m more valuable than Pogoń Siedlce's (€2m vs €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
PW wins
0
Draws
0
PS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Polonia Warszawa vs Pogoń Siedlce · H/A from PW
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/24APogoń Siedlce Vs PW2-4

Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
05/04/25AOdra Opole Vs PW0-1
29/03/25HPW Vs Chrobry Głogów4-2
15/03/25AWarta Poznań Vs PW1-2
09/03/25HPW Vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg2-2
02/03/25AMiedz Legnica Vs PW2-3
27/02/25HPW Vs Puszcza Niepołomice1-1
21/02/25HPW Vs Górnik Łęczna2-1
14/02/25AArka Gdynia Vs PW0-0
06/12/24HPW Vs Wisla Krakow2-0
03/12/24HPW Vs Wisla Krakow2-2

Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/25HPS Vs ŁKS Łódź1-1
30/03/25AStal Rzeszów Vs PS2-4
16/03/25HPS Vs Stal Stalowa Wola0-0
07/03/25ATychy 71 Vs PS2-0
28/02/25HPS Vs Wisla Plock1-3
22/02/25ANieciecza Vs PS1-1
17/02/25HPS Vs Ruch Chorzów1-1
08/12/24HPS Vs Odra Opole0-1
01/12/24AChrobry Głogów Vs PS1-0
24/11/24AWarta Poznań Vs PS2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Polonia Warszawa
Polonia Warszawa
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.40
HomeWWDDW1.46
AwayLDWWW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%38%35%
AVG goals2.562.672.46
Over 1.5 %70%75%65%
Over 2.5 %54%50%58%
Over 3.5 %24%25%23%
Scored1.261.381.15
Conceded1.301.291.31
BTTS56%50%62%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners---
Cards---
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
Poland: I Liga
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDWD0.59
HomeLDLDD0.57
AwayLLDLW0.62
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %11%7%15%
AVG goals2.672.502.85
Over 1.5 %78%79%77%
Over 2.5 %44%43%46%
Over 3.5 %26%21%31%
Scored0.930.861.00
Conceded1.741.641.85
BTTS67%71%62%
Clean Sheet4%7%0%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arka GdyniaArka Gdynia3472
62%
2.1
6324+39
2.6
74%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.90.7
-
2NiecieczaNieciecza3471
62%
2.1
7039+31
3.2
91%
74%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2212.11.1
-
3Wisla PlockWisla Plock3670
56%
1.9
6239+23
2.8
78%
64%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
4361.71.1
-
4Wisla KrakowWisla Krakow3562
51%
1.8
6333+30
2.7
74%
57%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
6251.80.9
-
5Miedz LegnicaMiedz Legnica3659
47%
1.6
5747+10
2.9
81%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.61.3
-
6Polonia WarszawaPolonia Warszawa3556
46%
1.6
4739+8
2.5
66%
51%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3021.31.1
-
7Tychy 71Tychy 713453
38%
1.6
4736+11
2.4
68%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.1
-
8Znicz PruszkówZnicz Pruszków3452
41%
1.5
5243+9
2.8
74%
59%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
9Górnik ŁęcznaGórnik Łęczna3450
38%
1.5
5042+8
2.7
82%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
10Ruch ChorzówRuch Chorzów3448
38%
1.4
5046+4
2.8
76%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1111.51.4
-
11ŁKS ŁódźŁKS Łódź3447
38%
1.4
5041+9
2.7
71%
56%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.51.2
-
12Stal RzeszówStal Rzeszów3435
26%
1.0
4259-17
3.0
76%
62%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1011.21.7
-
13Chrobry GłogówChrobry Głogów3433
24%
1.0
3759-22
2.8
79%
59%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
14Pogoń SiedlcePogoń Siedlce3430
21%
0.9
3853-15
2.7
79%
50%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.6
-
15Odra OpoleOdra Opole3430
21%
0.9
3161-30
2.7
71%
56%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2110.91.8
-
16Kotwica KołobrzegKotwica Kołobrzeg3429
18%
0.9
2955-26
2.5
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.6
-
17Warta PoznańWarta Poznań3424
18%
0.7
2256-34
2.3
62%
44%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0100.61.6
-
18Stal Stalowa WolaStal Stalowa Wola3423
12%
0.7
2765-38
2.7
71%
47%
35%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.9
-
Poland: I Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →

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