Polonia Warszawa’s recent win over Górnik Polkowice fuels optimism, while Polonia Bytom return from a draw against Arka Gdynia. The model favours a home win, with a 43% chance, followed by a 24% draw and a 33% away victory. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a lively contest, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10.4%. Warszawa averages 1.36 goals scored and conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Bytom averages 1.69 scored and 2.23 conceded away. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Under 7.5 at 97.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.5%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.1%, Under 6.5 at 94.0%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.7%, Away under 3.5 goals at 92.3%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 90.1%. Each probability is expressed as a percentage.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polonia Warszawa win
43.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom win
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polonia Warszawa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.30
1.43
1.21
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.58
1.46
1.36
1.36
1.77
1.54
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.83
1.80
1.47
2.07
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.83
1.73
1.36
1.69
2.23
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
1.50
2.33
2.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.5%
Under 2.5
33.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.7%
Under 3.5
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.8%
No
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%
2-1
8.7%
1-2
7.5%
2-2
6.9%
2-0
5.5%
3-1
5.4%
1-0
5.0%
3-2
4.2%
Polonia Warszawa goals ↓
Polonia Bytom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
4.2%
4.1%
2.2%
0.9%
1
5.0%
10%
7.5%
4.0%
1.6%
2
5.5%
8.7%
6.9%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.4%
5.4%
4.2%
2.2%
0.9%
4
1.6%
2.5%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Warszawa goals (down), columns = Polonia Bytom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Polonia Warszawa is 0.67 points better than Polonia Bytom in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Polonia Warszawa is 0.33 goals worse than Polonia Bytom in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Polonia Warszawa is 1.17 goals better than Polonia Bytom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Polonia Warszawa or Draw
67.4%
Avg Implied -
43%
24%
33%
covers Polonia Warszawa + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa or Polonia Bytom
75.7%
Avg Implied -
43%
24%
33%
covers Polonia Warszawa + Polonia Bytom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Polonia Bytom
56.9%
Avg Implied -
43%
24%
33%
covers Draw + Polonia Bytom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5
Over
84.1%
Under
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5
Over
54.9%
Under
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 3.5
Over
11.5%
Under
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5
Over
79.5%
Under
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5
Over
47.1%
Under
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 3.5
Over
7.7%
Under
92.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Polonia Warszawa, so a minus line means Polonia Warszawa give that many goals of a start and Polonia Bytom receive them. At -1, Polonia Warszawa must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Polonia Warszawa win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa -2
10.7%
Draw -2
13.2%
Polonia Bytom +2
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa -1
23.9%
Draw -1
19.2%
Polonia Bytom +1
56.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa +1
67.4%
Draw +1
16.4%
Polonia Bytom -1
16.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Polonia Warszawa)
Polonia Warszawa +2
83.8%
Draw +2
9.8%
Polonia Bytom -2
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polonia Warszawa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.50
0.29
0.36
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.50
0.46
0.27
0.27
0.69
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.40
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
1.09
0.36
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
71.8%
Under 0.5
28.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
36.0%
Under 1.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
15.1%
Under 2.5
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.7%
Under
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.8%
Under
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polonia Warszawa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.80
1.14
0.86
1.00
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.00
1.09
1.09
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.80
1.07
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.17
0.64
1.00
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.00
1.33
1.33
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.8%
Under 0.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.5%
Under 1.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.0%
Under 2.5
79.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.8%
Under
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.3%
Under
93.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
16.8%
Under
83.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's squad is €2m more valuable than Polonia Bytom's (€5m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's attack is €1m more valuable than Polonia Bytom's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa and Polonia Bytom have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's defence is €1m more valuable than Polonia Bytom's (€2m vs €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Puszcza Niepołomice
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów