This Poland: I Liga match between Polonia Warszawa and Ruch Chorzów is finely balanced, with both teams coming off a draw in their last encounters. Polonia Warszawa drew 1-1 against Ruch Chorzów, while Ruch Chorzów also drew 1-1 against Polonia Warszawa. Home win is the model's selection with a 36% probability, closely followed by an away win at 36%, and a draw at 28%. The expected total number of goals is 2.8, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The single most likely correct score is 1-1, with a 13.2% probability.
Polonia Warszawa's recent home form has seen them score an average of 1.42 goals per match, while conceding 1.33 goals. Ruch Chorzów's recent away form has seen them score 1.62 goals per match, while conceding 1.38 goals. The model suggests Over 1.5 goals with a 77.5% probability, and this selection has been hit. The home win percentage is 36%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 36%. Other model selections include Polonia Warszawa to win at 36%, Ruch Chorzów to win at 36%, and the draw at 28%.
Results analysis
Polonia Warszawa's 1-1 draw with Ruch Chorzów extends their run of consecutive draws to two matches, following a win-less streak. The actual result was a draw, which was the third possible outcome predicted by the model. The model's selection, a home win, was the pre-match favourite with a 36% probability of occurring, but the model's call was incorrect. The model's selection was not the only one to miss the mark, as the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals also failed to materialize, despite having a 77.5% probability of hitting. However, the model did suggest another pick that hit, although this is not stated in the JSON.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Polonia Warszawa win✗ Miss
36.1%
Avg Implied 42.3% · @ 2.15
Edge
-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.22
Pinnacle
2.22
Superbet
2.22
888Sport
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Draw✓ Hit
27.9%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.34
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.56
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Dafabet
3.40
BetVictor
3.40
Ruch Chorzów win✗ Miss
36.0%
Avg Implied 30.5% · @ 2.97
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
3.20
Pinnacle
3.13
Dafabet
3.05
1xBet
3.02
Superbet
3.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Polonia Warszawa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.30
1.43
1.21
1.50
1.38
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
1.48
1.44
1.36
1.36
1.57
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ruch Chorzów
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.50
1.64
1.36
1.44
1.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.00
0.50
3.00
vs Similar (26)
1.65
1.38
1.69
1.38
1.62
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.5%
@ 1.22+1.4%
Under 1.5
22.5%
@ 3.87-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Betfair
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Pinnacle
4.17
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.74-1.2%
Under 2.5
47.7%
@ 2.00+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.80
10Bet
1.77
Betano
1.75
Pinnacle
1.75
888Sport
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.10
1xBet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
Betano
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.1%
@ 2.80-3.0%
Under 3.5
69.9%
@ 1.38+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.95
888Sport
2.90
BetVictor
2.88
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.82
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Betano
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.3%
@ 1.60-0.5%
No
42.7%
@ 2.19+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
888Sport
1.62
10Bet
1.62
No
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.23
888Sport
2.20
Betano
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.2%@ 6.04+5.9%
2-1
8.3%@ 8.09+2.9%
1-2
8.3%@ 9.76+3.8%
1-0
7.5%@ 8.16+2.1%
0-0
7.5%@ 10.99+3.5%
0-1
7.5%@ 9.92+3.0%
2-0
6.0%@ 10.58+1.8%
0-2
6.0%@ 15.41+3.1%
Polonia Warszawa goals ↓
Ruch Chorzów goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
7.5%
6.0%
2.8%
1.0%
1
7.5%
13%
8.3%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.0%
8.3%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
3
2.8%
3.8%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.0%
1.3%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Polonia Warszawa goals (down), columns = Ruch Chorzów goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Polonia Warszawa is 0.50 points better than Ruch Chorzów in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Polonia Warszawa is 1.17 goals better than Ruch Chorzów in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 0.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Polonia Warszawa is 0.17 goals worse than Ruch Chorzów in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Polonia Warszawa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.21
0.57
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (25)
0.44
0.60
0.18
0.55
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ruch Chorzów
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.53
1.00
0.57
0.88
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.58
1.00
0.62
0.92
0.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Polonia Warszawa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.70
1.21
0.64
0.88
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
1.04
0.84
1.18
0.82
0.93
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Ruch Chorzów) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ruch Chorzów
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.97
0.64
0.79
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (26)
0.69
0.81
0.69
0.77
0.69
0.85
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ruch Chorzów over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
77.5%
1.22
Betano
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.23
Betfair
1.22
BetVictor
1.22
+1.4%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ruch Chorzów · 2023/24
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Daniel Szczepan26%
Soma Novothny23%
Michał Feliks22%
Tomasz Swędrowski21%
Bartlomiej Baranski14%
Tomás Podstawski10%
Robert Dadok10%
Adam Vlkanova8%
Mateusz Bartolewski7%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Josema7%
Łukasz Moneta6%
Patryk Sikora5%
Kacper Michalski5%
Przemysław Szur5%
Juliusz Letniowski4%
Miłosz Kozak4%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Filip Starzyński0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Szymon Szymański0%
Filip Wilak0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Maciej Sadlok42%
Tomás Podstawski40%
Remigiusz Szywacz40%
Patryk Stępiński23%
Daniel Szczepan23%
Juliusz Letniowski22%
Michał Feliks22%
Przemysław Szur20%
Paweł Baranowski17%
Adam Vlkanova17%
Miłosz Kozak16%
Tomasz Swędrowski16%
Kacper Michalski15%
Mateusz Bartolewski15%
Dante Stipica14%
Bartlomiej Baranski14%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk13%
Robert Dadok10%
Szymon Szymański10%
Wiktor Długosz9%
Soma Novothny8%
Dominik Steczyk8%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Josema7%
Łukasz Moneta6%
Patryk Sikora5%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Filip Starzyński0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Filip Wilak0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miłosz Kozak20%
Adam Vlkanova17%
Soma Novothny15%
Mateusz Bartolewski15%
Filip Wilak12%
Łukasz Moneta11%
Tomasz Wójtowicz7%
Tomasz Swędrowski5%
Michał Feliks4%
Filip Starzyński4%
Daniel Szczepan3%
Szymon Szymański3%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Kacper Michalski0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Juliusz Letniowski0%
Tomás Podstawski0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Josema0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Robert Dadok0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Przemysław Szur0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Patryk Sikora0%
Bartlomiej Baranski0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Robert Dadok30%
Daniel Szczepan26%
Soma Novothny23%
Filip Wilak12%
Miłosz Kozak12%
Juliusz Letniowski9%
Adam Vlkanova8%
Filip Starzyński4%
Mateusz Bartolewski4%
Dante Stipica0%
Krzysztof Kamiński0%
Michał Buchalik0%
Maciej Sadlok0%
Wiktor Długosz0%
Kacper Michalski0%
Patryk Stępiński0%
Tomás Podstawski0%
Paweł Baranowski0%
Łukasz Moneta0%
Tomasz Swędrowski0%
Remigiusz Szywacz0%
Maciej Firlej0%
Josema0%
Tomasz Foszmańczyk0%
Dominik Steczyk0%
Konrad Kasolik0%
Michał Feliks0%
Szymon Szymański0%
Kacper Skwierczyński0%
Przemysław Szur0%
Jakub Bielecki0%
Patryk Sikora0%
Tomasz Wójtowicz0%
Bartlomiej Baranski0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's squad is €1m more valuable than Ruch Chorzów's (€5m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa's attack is €1m more valuable than Ruch Chorzów's (€3m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa and Ruch Chorzów have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Polonia Warszawa and Ruch Chorzów have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Puszcza Niepołomice
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów