Pontardawe Town’s recent slump - four straight losses and a 0-1 defeat to Aberystwyth Town - sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, as the model projects an average of 3.9 goals and a most likely total of 6+. The predicted scoreline is 1-2 in favour of Caerau (Ely), a 8.3% probability event that stands alone in the forecast. Home form shows 2.4 goals for and 2.5 against, while the away side averages 2.55 for and 1.64 conceded, both against similar opposition, suggesting a potent attack from Caerau (Ely) and a defensively vulnerable Pontardawe Town. The model favours an away win, with probabilities of 29% for home, 22% for a draw, and 49% for an away victory. Suggested picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.5%, Under 7.5 at 95.4%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 93.1%, Over 1.5 at 90.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 90.8%, Home under 1.5 HT goals at 89.9%, and Under 6.5 at 89.8%.
Pontardawe Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 2.27 | 1.79 | 2.57 | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.87 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 1.46 | 2.23 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.57 | 2.00 | 0.25 | 2.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.17 | 1.63 | 2.13 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 2.59 | 1.82 | 2.67 | 2.17 | 2.55 | 1.64 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.62 | 1.38 | 1.78 | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Caerau (Ely) goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.0% |
| 1 | 2.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 3.4% |
| 2 | 2.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
Pontardawe Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 0.75 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.25 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 0.25 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.06 | 0.41 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.70 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 0.54 | 0.77 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Pontardawe Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.20 | 0.79 | 1.36 | 0.62 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.87 | 1.26 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 0.69 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.40 | 0.97 | 1.31 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.65 | 1.24 | 1.57 | 1.86 | 1.70 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 1.08 | 0.62 | 1.11 | 0.78 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 96.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 95.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 95.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 91.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 90.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 90.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 89.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 89.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 88.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 86.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 85.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 79.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 79.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 76.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BTTS Yes | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 73.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 71.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 71.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 27/01/24 | H | 3-6 |
Pontardawe Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 20/04/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 13/04/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 3-3 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 14/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |