Pontardawe Town’s recent slump of four straight defeats has left them looking to reset, while Treowen Stars, after a narrow loss, are eager to bounce back. The model favours a home win, with a 42% chance, a 22% chance of a draw, and a 36% chance of an away win. The expected total of four goals hints at a lively affair, and the most likely total is 6 or more, with a 21% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, carrying an 8% chance.
Pontardawe’s home form shows an average of 2.4 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against similar opposition, while Treowen’s away record averages 2.5 scored and 2.7 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (94.9%), Over 1.5 (91.6%), Under 6.5 (88.9%), Home over 0.5 goals (87.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (87.0%), Away over 0.5 goals (85.4%), Home under 3.5 goals (84.3%), and Home +2 handicap (80.4%).
Pontardawe Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 2.27 | 1.79 | 2.57 | 1.38 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.87 | 2.35 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 1.46 | 2.23 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.57 | 2.00 | 0.25 | 2.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.03 | 2.10 | 1.88 | 1.56 | 2.21 | 2.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 2.18 | 1.91 | 1.92 | 1.25 | 2.50 | 2.70 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.62 | 2.62 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
| Treowen Stars goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 3.1% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 2.3% |
| 3 | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
Pontardawe Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.07 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 0.75 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.00 | 1.09 | 1.30 | 1.20 | 0.77 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.25 | 1.25 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.83 | 0.44 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.59 | 0.91 | 0.58 | 0.75 | 0.60 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Pontardawe Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.20 | 0.79 | 1.36 | 0.62 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.87 | 1.26 | 1.10 | 1.30 | 0.69 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.14 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.27 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.71 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.59 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.90 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 1.25 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 94.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 91.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 88.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 87.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 87.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 85.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 80.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 78.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 77.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 2.5 | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 76.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| BTTS Yes | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Pontardawe Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 20/04/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/04/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 13/04/24 | A | 3-1 | |
| 06/04/24 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/04/24 | H | 3-3 |
Treowen Stars| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 22/08/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 08/08/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 23/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |