Pontypridd Town’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 4-4 draw against Swansea University, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, as the model projects an average of 3.6 goals. The most likely total is three goals, with a 21% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, a 9.4% probability, and the model’s favourite result is a home win. Pontypridd’s home form shows they average 2.67 goals scored and 1.58 conceded against similar opposition, while Afan Lido, on the road, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. The home win probability is 56%, a draw 22%, and an away win 22%. The model’s selection, Over 1.5 goals, carries an 87.9% probability. This match is expected to see both teams find the net, with Pontypridd likely to edge it in a lively contest.
Pontypridd Town’s unbeaten run in their last five, highlighted by a 4-4 draw at Swansea University, continued as they secured a 2-0 victory over Afan Lido. The model’s favourite, a home win, was right, with a 56% probability. The predicted 3-goal total fell short, but the model’s single selection, Over 1.5, hit with an 87.9% chance. The final score of 2-0 matched the model’s most likely 2-1 outcome, and the actual result confirmed the home side’s dominance. With the favoured result delivered and the selection successful, the model’s predictions proved accurate for this match.
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.43 | 1.77 | 2.19 | 1.88 | 0.57 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.86 | 1.81 | 2.67 | 1.58 | 0.78 | 2.11 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.44 | 1.67 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 1.77 | 1.14 | 1.64 | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.35 | 1.55 | 1.11 | 1.67 | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 2.11 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
| Afan Lido goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.4% | 9.4% | 5.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 6.9% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.60 | 1.19 | 0.44 | 0.36 | 0.79 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.56 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.70 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.17 | 1.00 | 1.44 | 0.21 | 0.86 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.86 | 1.10 | 1.33 | 1.25 | 0.22 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.11 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.03 | 0.79 | 1.14 | 0.56 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.80 | 0.85 | 0.89 | 1.22 | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 87.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/03/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/07/24 | H | 3-2 |
Pontypridd Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/01/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 01/01/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 26/12/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 05/12/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 28/11/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 1-1 | |
| 15/11/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 07/11/25 | H | 7-0 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 2-0 |
Afan Lido| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 30/12/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/12/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 16/12/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/11/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 07/11/25 | A | 6-0 | |
| 31/10/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 24/10/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 18/10/25 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Llandudno | 30 | 80 | 87% | 2.7 | 77 | 22 | +55 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Trefelin | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 83 | 17 | +66 | 3.3 | 93% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 3 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 76 | 80% | 2.5 | 75 | 20 | +55 | 3.2 | 87% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 | Airbus UK | 30 | 75 | 80% | 2.5 | 93 | 22 | +71 | 3.8 | 93% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.9 | 87% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Caerau (Ely) | 31 | 60 | 58% | 1.9 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 3.3 | 81% | 61% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 8 | Newtown AFC | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 51 | 49 | +2 | 3.3 | 87% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 | Rhyl | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 37% | 1.5 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 2.8 | 67% | 37% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 2.4 | 63% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Guilsfield | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 41 | 40% | 1.4 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 2.8 | 77% | 60% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 | Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 15 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 3.7 | 87% | 77% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 83% | 63% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Brickfield Rangers | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 19 | Treowen Stars | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | - |
| 20 | Newport City | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 2.8 | 70% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 73% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 22 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 24 | Afan Lido | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 3.0 | 67% | 53% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | - |
| 25 | Buckley Town | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 50 | 77 | -27 | 4.2 | 90% | 80% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | - |
| 26 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 29 | 20% | 1.0 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 3.6 | 90% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 27 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 29 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 28 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 47 | 87 | -40 | 4.5 | 90% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | - |
| 29 | Baglan Dragons | 31 | 25 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 30 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 32 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 10 | 3% | 0.3 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 3.4 | 83% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | - |