PythiaFootballBETA
Pontypridd Town look set to extend their unbeaten run, having drawn 4-4 with Swansea University and then won four of their last five matches. Their home form shows an average of 2.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, suggesting a potent attack that should keep the scoreline high. Afan Lido, however, averages only 0.78 goals scored and 2.56 conceded on the road, indicating a more defensive approach that may limit their own chances.
The model predicts a home win with a 57% probability, a draw at 22%, and an away win at 21%. The most likely outcome is a 2-1 victory for Pontypridd Town, with a 9.5% chance. The expected total goals is 3.5, with a 22% probability of exactly three goals.
The model’s selections include: Away under 2.5 HT goals 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals 97.8%, Under 7.5 97.2%, Away under 3.5 goals 95.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals 94.3%, Under 6.5 93.3%, Away under 1.5 HT goals 91.8%, and Home +2 handicap 91.0%.
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.39 | 1.61 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 2.42 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.87 | 1.53 | 1.41 | 0.69 | 2.46 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.40 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 2.56 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 2.22 | 0.83 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Afan Lido goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.7% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| 2 | 7.3% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.13 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 1.25 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.45 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.26 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 0.82 | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.00 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 1.46 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 0.33 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.44 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 98.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 97.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 97.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 95.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 94.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 93.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 91.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 91.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 90.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 89.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 87.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 86.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 85.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 85.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 85.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 82.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 81.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Draw | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +1 handicap | 79.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 78.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 74.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 74.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 72.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 72.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 15/11/25 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/03/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 26/07/24 | H | 3-2 |
Pontypridd Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-2 |
Afan Lido| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 |  Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 |  Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 |  Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 |  Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 |  Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 |  Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 |  Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 |  Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 |  Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 |  Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 |  Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 |  Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 |  Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 |  Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 |  Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 |  Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 |  Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 |  Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 |  Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 |  Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 |  Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 |  Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 |  Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 |  llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 |  Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 |  Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 |  Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |