Pontypridd Town are favoured to win, with the model assigning a 52% chance to a home victory, 23% to a draw and 26% to an away win. The expected total of goals is 3.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 9.6% probability. Pontypridd have been solid at home against similar opposition, averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded, while Llantwit Major, in away form against comparable teams, average 1.45 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. The model’s selections highlight a strong edge on the match’s low-scoring nature: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.8%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.4% with a 6% edge, Under 7.5 at 97.1%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 94.5% with a 10% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.9%, Under 6.5 at 93.0%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.1% with a 1% edge, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 90.0% with a 12% edge. The model’s prediction that Pontypridd will win reflects the disparity in recent form, with the home side unbeaten in five matches and the visitors on a five-game losing streak.
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.70 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 1.93 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.39 | 1.61 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 2.42 | 1.92 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 2.75 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.73 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.43 | 2.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.36 | 1.50 | 1.27 | 1.27 | 1.45 | 1.73 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 2.38 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Llantwit Major goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 5.1% | 9.6% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 4.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.57 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.13 | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.45 | 1.25 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.77 | 0.56 | 0.81 | 0.64 | 0.71 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.55 | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.50 | 1.38 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Pontypridd Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.26 | 1.09 | 1.36 | 0.82 | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.00 | 1.29 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.97 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.73 | 0.95 | 0.55 | 0.73 | 0.91 | 1.18 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 98.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 97.4% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | +5.9% |
| Under 7.5 | 97.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 94.5% | 1.10 | 1.10 | - | - | - | - | +10.3% |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 93.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 93.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 91.1% | 1.03 | 1.03 | - | - | - | - | +1.2% |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 90.0% | 1.17 | 1.17 | - | - | - | - | +11.6% |
| Home +2 handicap | 88.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 88.0% | 1.09 | 1.10 | 1.08 | - | - | - | +4.0% |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 87.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -5.0% |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 85.5% | 1.06 | 1.06 | - | - | - | - | -1.8% |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 85.2% | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 1.20 | - | +8.8% |
| Under 5.5 | 84.9% | 1.11 | 1.12 | 1.10 | - | - | - | +3.3% |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 83.8% | 1.31 | 1.35 | 1.28 | - | - | - | +14.4% |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 82.5% | 1.09 | 1.09 | 1.09 | - | - | - | -1.3% |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 81.8% | 1.01 | 1.01 | - | - | - | - | -8.5% |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 77.5% | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.41 | - | - | - | +13.6% |
| Home or Away | 77.3% | 1.10 | 1.12 | 1.12 | 1.11 | 1.11 | 1.10 | -7.0% |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 76.8% | 1.61 | 1.65 | 1.58 | - | - | - | +19.8% |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 76.2% | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.37 | 1.37 | - | - | +9.8% |
| Home or Draw | 74.2% | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.06 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.04 | -14.0% |
| Home +1 handicap | 74.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 74.2% | 1.17 | 1.20 | 1.19 | 1.16 | 1.14 | - | -4.2% |
| Under 4.5 | 71.3% | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.30 | - | - | +2.1% |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 11/10/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/24 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/09/24 | H | 1-1 |
Pontypridd Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | A | 4-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/03/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-2 |
Llantwit Major| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |