Lincoln's recent 3-game winning run and away victory over Port Vale in their last encounter will likely influence this match. The model predicts an away win, with a 49% probability, outperforming the 23% chance of a Port Vale win and 28% chance of a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The model's most likely score prediction is 1-1, with a 13.4% probability.
Port Vale struggles to score at home, averaging 1 goal per match, while conceding 0.5 goals on average. Lincoln, meanwhile, excels at scoring away from home, averaging 1 goal per match, while conceding an average of 0 goals. The model suggests selecting Under 3.5 goals, with a 75.2% probability, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 73% probability. The home win percentage is 23%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 49%.
Results analysis
Port Vale's win extends their run of consecutive losses to four. The final score was 0-2, confirming the actual result of an away win. The model's selection, an away win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 49%. The model's call was spot on as the away side, Lincoln, came out on top. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with a probability of 75.2%, while Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 73%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Port Vale win✗ Miss
23.4%
Avg Implied 20.3% · @ 4.60
Edge
+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.1%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.88
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lincoln win✓ Hit
48.5%
Avg Implied 55.6% · @ 1.68
Edge
-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Port Vale
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.43
0.94
0.75
0.79
2.21
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
1.50
1.00
0.25
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.42
0.92
0.92
0.75
1.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.30
0.90
2.56
0.81
2.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
2.30
0.96
2.62
0.92
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.33
0.33
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.0%
Under 1.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
46.3%
@ 1.78-6.0%
Under 2.5
53.7%
@ 1.95+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.8%
Under 3.5
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
50.6%
No
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%
0-1
11.0%
0-2 ✓
9.4%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
9.2%
1-0
6.7%
2-1
6.1%
0-3
4.8%
Port Vale goals ↓
Lincoln goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
11%
9.4%
4.8%
1.8%
1
6.7%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
2
4.0%
6.1%
4.6%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.3%
2.0%
1.5%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Port Vale goals (down), columns = Lincoln goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln
2.24
Cardiff
1.98
Bolton
1.71
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Stevenage
1.56
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Burton
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Exeter
1.07
Port Vale
0.91
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.76
Port Vale is 1.33 points worse than Lincoln in terms of average points per game (0.91 vs 2.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cardiff
1.96
Lincoln
1.93
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Bolton
1.55
Stockport
1.53
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Exeter
1.13
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Stevenage
1.02
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.85
Port Vale
0.78
Port Vale is 1.15 goals worse than Lincoln in terms of goals scored per game (0.78 vs 1.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln
0.89
Stevenage
1.02
Bolton
1.08
Mansfield
1.09
Cardiff
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Luton
1.22
Wigan
1.26
Wycombe
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Port Vale
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Doncaster
1.50
Leyton Orient
1.54
Rotherham
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Northampton
1.61
Port Vale is 0.43 goals worse than Lincoln in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 0.89).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Cardiff
63%
Bolton
59%
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Exeter
51%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Port Vale
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Rotherham
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Northampton
45%
Lincoln
42%
Port Vale is 4.1 percentage points better than Lincoln in terms of average possession (46% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Port Vale
For 4.3 · Against 6.7 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 10.2 · Total 20.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lincoln
For 5.2 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.0 · Total 22.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Port Vale
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.3
3.4
3.5
3.2
21.5
22.0
20.9
vs Stronger (12)
11.0
10.4
11.8
2.8
3.1
2.4
21.3
22.7
19.4
vs Similar (38)
10.5
10.9
9.9
3.6
3.6
3.4
21.6
21.8
21.3
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
63%
62%
65%
46%
52%
39%
51%
54%
48%
% under line
37%
38%
35%
54%
48%
61%
49%
46%
52%
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.8
4.0
4.4
3.6
22.8
22.5
23.1
vs Stronger (2)
5.5
5.5
-
5.0
5.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (40)
9.4
9.8
8.9
4.0
4.4
3.6
22.8
22.4
23.2
vs Weaker (8)
8.5
8.7
8.4
3.8
3.7
3.8
23.0
23.3
22.8
% over line
41%
44%
38%
54%
60%
48%
61%
64%
58%
% under line
59%
56%
62%
46%
40%
52%
39%
36%
42%
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.3
Port Vale
10.6
Barnsley
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Burton
10.5
Cardiff
10.4
Peterboro
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Blackpool
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Northampton
9.9
Doncaster
9.8
Bradford
9.8
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Mansfield
9.6
Rotherham
9.5
Reading
9.2
Lincoln
9.2
Stevenage
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Bradford
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Rotherham
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Bolton
3.8
Stevenage
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Burton
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Reading
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
Stockport
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Wigan
3.2
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.9
Huddersfield
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Plymouth
24.1
Rotherham
24.0
Peterboro
23.9
Blackpool
23.7
Luton
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Doncaster
23.1
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Leyton Orient
22.9
Lincoln
22.8
Reading
22.5
Bolton
22.5
Mansfield
22.4
Northampton
22.2
Burton
22.0
Exeter
21.8
Wycombe
21.6
Port Vale
21.6
Stockport
21.4
Barnsley
21.0
Cardiff
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
51.8%
Under 9.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.9%
Under 3.5
52.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
59.7%
Under 21.5
40.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Port Vale
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.44
0.38
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (6)
0.83
0.67
0.75
0.25
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.58
0.33
0.42
0.58
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.31
0.12
1.00
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.22
0.41
1.46
0.08
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.33
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Port Vale
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.83
0.50
0.38
0.14
1.36
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.83
0.25
0.00
0.00
2.50
vs Similar (24)
0.38
0.83
0.58
0.50
0.17
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lincoln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.50
1.25
0.69
1.00
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.07
0.56
1.15
0.85
1.00
0.29
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
1.67
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Port Vale) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Port Vale over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Port Vale over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lincoln over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (25)
€31m
LUT (28)
€29m
HUD (27)
€16m
BOL (24)
€14m
LO (28)
€13m
STO (27)
€13m
PLY (27)
€12m
BLA (23)
€12m
REA (26)
€11m
LIN (27)
€10m
WYC (25)
€10m
STE (25)
€9m
WIG (27)
€9m
PV (31)
€8m
ROT (28)
€8m
PET (26)
€8m
BUR (27)
€8m
BRA (23)
€7m
BAR (20)
€7m
DON (27)
€7m
MAN (27)
€6m
AW (23)
€5m
EXE (22)
€5m
NOR (23)
€4m
Port Vale's squad is €2m less valuable than Lincoln's (€8m vs €10m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUT (13)
€16m
CAR (10)
€13m
BOL (9)
€8m
STO (8)
€6m
LO (7)
€6m
HUD (9)
€5m
BLA (8)
€4m
LIN (9)
€4m
PLY (8)
€4m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WYC (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
AW (10)
€2m
REA (6)
€2m
MAN (9)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
DON (7)
€2m
EXE (7)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€1m
NOR (7)
€1m
Port Vale's attack is €2m less valuable than Lincoln's (€2m vs €4m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (4)
€7m
LUT (7)
€5m
HUD (5)
€4m
REA (7)
€4m
LO (8)
€3m
BRA (6)
€3m
PLY (7)
€3m
ROT (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
LIN (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
BOL (4)
€2m
BLA (5)
€2m
DON (9)
€2m
PV (9)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
STO (5)
€2m
MAN (5)
€2m
PET (5)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
NOR (6)
€1m
EXE (6)
€1m
AW (6)
€1m
Port Vale and Lincoln have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (11)
€12m
LUT (8)
€8m
HUD (13)
€7m
BLA (10)
€6m
PLY (12)
€6m
STO (14)
€5m
PV (15)
€5m
REA (13)
€5m
WYC (12)
€4m
BUR (13)
€4m
LO (13)
€4m
LIN (12)
€4m
BOL (11)
€4m
BAR (10)
€4m
STE (10)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
ROT (11)
€3m
PET (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€2m
MAN (13)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
EXE (9)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
Port Vale and Lincoln have a similar defence value (both €5m).
England: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Cardiff
Bolton
Stockport
Bradford
Stevenage
Luton
Plymouth
Huddersfield
Mansfield
Wycombe
Reading
Blackpool
Doncaster
Barnsley
Wigan
Burton
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Leyton Orient
Exeter
Rotherham
Northampton