Porthmadog enter the match after a draw and a modest 0-2 loss, while Bala Town return from a 0-1 defeat but on a winning streak of four. The model therefore names an away win as the clear favourite, assigning a 72% chance to Bala Town’s victory, 18% to a draw and 10% to a home win. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total goal count being three, a 22% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Bala Town, a 11.8% chance.
Porthmadog’s home form shows they average 0.83 goals scored and concede 2.42 against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Bala Town’s away form shows 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded versus similar opposition. The model’s suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Under 7.5 (98.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Away +2 handicap (97.0%), Under 6.5 (95.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.5%) and Home under 2.5 goals (95.3%).
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 2.17 | 0.88 | 2.24 | 1.85 | 2.08 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 3.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.36 | 2.24 | 0.83 | 2.42 | 1.85 | 2.08 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 1.75 | 0.50 | 1.75 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 7% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.40 | 0.94 | 1.38 | 1.43 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.12 | 1.44 | 1.00 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Bala Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.8% | 9.0% | 12% | 9.5% | 5.7% |
| 1 | 2.5% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 4.5% |
| 2 | 1.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.70 | 0.47 | 0.59 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.64 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.77 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.00 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.60 | 0.44 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.52 | 0.68 | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.47 | 0.41 | 1.65 | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.72 | 1.44 | 0.33 | 1.67 | 1.08 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.25 | 1.75 | 0.25 | 1.75 | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-5pp vs league) | |||||
Bala Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.93 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (25) | 0.60 | 0.76 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 3.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home under 3.5 goals | 99.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 HT goals | 98.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 7.5 | 98.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 2H goals | 97.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 97.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 95.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 HT goals | 95.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 95.3% | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | - | - | +19.3% |
| Away under 2.5 2H goals | 92.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 1.5 HT goals | 91.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 91.0% | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.15 | - | - | - | +12.7% |
| Under 5.5 | 89.4% | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.05 | - | - | - | +2.9% |
| Under 2.5 HT goals | 87.0% | 1.13 | 1.14 | 1.13 | 1.13 | - | - | +6.2% |
| Home under 1.5 2H goals | 85.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 83.7% | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.13 | - | - | - | +3.4% |
| Away under 1.5 HT goals | 82.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 82.0% | 1.22 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.22 | 1.20 | 1.19 | +6.7% |
| Over 0.5 2H goals | 79.1% | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.12 | - | - | - | -1.9% |
| Under 2.5 2H goals | 78.8% | 1.28 | 1.29 | 1.27 | - | - | - | +7.5% |
| Under 4.5 | 78.0% | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.18 | - | - | +1.7% |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 77.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 0.5 HT goals | 73.5% | 1.22 | 1.24 | 1.23 | 1.20 | - | - | -1.5% |
| Away under 1.5 2H goals | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Porthmadog| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 13/12/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/11/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 24/09/25 | H | 2-2 |
Bala Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 0-5 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |