This opponent (Chirk AAA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chirk AAA
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.67
1.00
1.42
0.67
2.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.71
1.25
1.00
0.33
2.67
vs Similar (14)
0.86
1.64
0.88
1.62
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
19% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.3%
No
45.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
9.0%
2-1
8.8%
0-0
8.5%
0-1
7.5%
1-2
7.5%
2-0
7.3%
2-2
5.3%
Porthmadog goals ↓
Chirk AAA goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
7.5%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
1
9.0%
14%
7.5%
3.0%
0.9%
2
7.3%
8.8%
5.3%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.4%
4.2%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.2%
1.5%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Porthmadog goals (down), columns = Chirk AAA goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Colwyn Bay
2.77
Holywell
2.63
Barry Town
2.60
Llandudno
2.20
llanelli AFC
2.07
Briton Ferry
2.00
Guilsfield
1.90
Carmarthen Town
1.73
Ruthin Town
1.70
Afan Lido
1.57
Cambrian & Clydach
1.57
Prestatyn Town
1.53
Llantwit Major
1.50
Cefn Druids AFC
1.43
Buckley Town
1.40
Cwmbran Celtic
1.27
Pontardawe Town
1.23
Gresford Athletic
1.17
Mold Alexandra
1.17
Ammanford AFC
1.10
Porthmadog
1.10
Taffs Well
1.07
Goytre United
1.07
Abergavenny Town
1.07
Trefelin
0.90
Llanidloes Town
0.90
Chirk AAA
0.87
Swansea University
0.87
Ynyshir Albions
0.80
Conwy Borough
0.77
Penrhyncoch
0.53
Holyhead Hotspur
0.50
Porthmadog is 0.23 points better than Chirk AAA in terms of average points per game (1.10 vs 0.87).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Colwyn Bay
3.37
Barry Town
2.60
Holywell
2.50
Briton Ferry
2.40
Llandudno
2.33
Prestatyn Town
2.20
Carmarthen Town
2.20
Cambrian & Clydach
2.13
llanelli AFC
2.10
Cwmbran Celtic
2.07
Afan Lido
2.03
Guilsfield
1.93
Buckley Town
1.77
Pontardawe Town
1.70
Taffs Well
1.67
Trefelin
1.57
Cefn Druids AFC
1.57
Ruthin Town
1.57
Llantwit Major
1.53
Goytre United
1.50
Llanidloes Town
1.40
Mold Alexandra
1.37
Ammanford AFC
1.33
Porthmadog
1.20
Abergavenny Town
1.17
Conwy Borough
1.10
Ynyshir Albions
1.10
Chirk AAA
1.07
Gresford Athletic
1.07
Penrhyncoch
1.03
Swansea University
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.80
Porthmadog is 0.13 goals better than Chirk AAA in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Holywell
0.73
Llandudno
0.77
Colwyn Bay
0.80
Barry Town
0.83
Briton Ferry
1.10
llanelli AFC
1.13
Guilsfield
1.23
Llantwit Major
1.33
Carmarthen Town
1.37
Gresford Athletic
1.43
Ruthin Town
1.47
Prestatyn Town
1.60
Chirk AAA
1.63
Afan Lido
1.73
Mold Alexandra
1.73
Porthmadog
1.77
Cambrian & Clydach
1.77
Cwmbran Celtic
1.77
Taffs Well
1.80
Ammanford AFC
1.90
Abergavenny Town
2.00
Buckley Town
2.03
Llanidloes Town
2.10
Conwy Borough
2.13
Swansea University
2.13
Cefn Druids AFC
2.13
Ynyshir Albions
2.23
Goytre United
2.23
Holyhead Hotspur
2.30
Trefelin
2.33
Penrhyncoch
2.40
Pontardawe Town
2.43
Porthmadog is 0.13 goals worse than Chirk AAA in terms of goals conceded per game (1.77 vs 1.63).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Porthmadog
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
0.61
0.82
0.55
0.17
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.61
0.82
0.55
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Chirk AAA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chirk AAA
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.38
0.90
0.42
0.67
0.33
1.22
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.75
0.25
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.29
1.00
0.25
0.88
0.33
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
48% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Porthmadog over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chirk AAA over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chirk AAA over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chirk AAA over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Porthmadog
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.61
1.09
0.18
1.09
1.00
1.08
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.61
1.09
0.18
1.09
1.00
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
35% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Chirk AAA) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Chirk AAA
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.48
0.76
0.58
0.75
0.33
0.78
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.62
0.75
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Porthmadog over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chirk AAA over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chirk AAA over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Chirk AAA over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Wales: FAW Championship 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →