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Porthmadog vs Denbigh Town Result & Analysis

Date: 24/09/2025
Time: 18:30
Final 2-2
Porthmadog
Porthmadog
Vs
29%
21%
51%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town
Wales: Welsh Cup
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Porthmadog win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
20.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town win✗ Miss
50.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

PorthmadogPorthmadog

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-621W01L13L04L03L11D03L61W02L14LA·LLA24/02H·GRE02/03H·BUC09/03A·GUI16/03H·AIR29/03A·CHI01/04H·HOL19/04A·QUE21/09H·AIR19/10H·DEN20/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.300.882.251.642.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)1.322.291.002.211.642.36
vs Weaker (2)0.002.500.002.50--
Clean sheet %0% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-550W33D32W12L50W31W11D11D51W41WH·LLA04/04A·GRE12/04H·CAE25/07H·HOL08/08A·GRE15/08H·MOL22/08A·PEN25/08H·BUC05/09H·FLI12/09A·POR20/09
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
3.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.401.502.351.592.461.38
vs Stronger (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
vs Similar (22)2.591.322.671.332.501.30
vs Weaker (7)1.712.291.602.202.002.50
Clean sheet %17% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%2%05%114%218%319%416%525%6+
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.9%
Under 1.5
7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
79.2%
Under 2.5
20.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.7%
Under 3.5
39.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
76.7%
No
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
7.7%
1-1
7.1%
2-2 ✓
7.0%
1-3
6.2%
2-1
5.8%
2-3
5.6%
0-2
4.3%
3-2
4.2%
Porthmadog goals ↓
Denbigh Town goals →
01234
02.1%2.9%4.3%3.4%2.1%
12.0%7.1%7.7%6.2%3.7%
22.4%5.8%7.0%5.6%3.4%
31.5%3.5%4.2%3.4%2.0%
40.7%1.6%1.9%1.5%0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Porthmadog goals (down), columns = Denbigh Town goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
3.00
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
llanelli AFC
2.40
Trearddur Bay
2.33
Denbigh Town
2.25
Caersws
2.25
Airbus UK
2.25
Llandudno
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.00
Trefelin
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Flint Town United
2.00
Llantwit Major
2.00
Swansea University
2.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
2.00
Mold Alexandra
2.00
Caerau (Ely)
1.75
Morriston Town
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Kinmel Bay
1.50
Llanefydd
1.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Briton Ferry
1.50
Cardiff MET
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Holyhead Hotspur
1.50
Gresford Athletic
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Carmarthen Town
1.25
Barry Town
1.00
Caernarfon Town
1.00
Evans & Williams
1.00
Cefn Cribwr
1.00
Saltney Town
1.00
Afan United
1.00
Nefyn United
1.00
Tredegar Town
1.00
Lliswerry
1.00
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.00
Goytre United
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
CPD Sychdyn United
1.00
Berriew
1.00
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.00
Llanfair United
1.00
Glynneath Town
1.00
Dinas Powys
1.00
Llanrug United
1.00
Blaenavon Blues
1.00
Port Talbot Town
1.00
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.00
Pwllheli
1.00
Abercarn United
1.00
Rhostyllen
1.00
Forden United
1.00
Broughton United FC
1.00
Dolgellau Athletic
1.00
Hawarden Rangers
1.00
Penygraig United FC
1.00
Bow Street
1.00
Welshpool Town
1.00
Tata Steel
1.00
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.00
Ynyshir Albions
1.00
Treowen Stars
1.00
Caerphilly Athletic
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Newtown AFC
1.00
Afan Lido
1.00
Pontyclun
1.00
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.00
Garden Village
1.00
Canton Liberal
1.00
Rhayader Town
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.67
Ruthin Town
0.50
Rhyl
0.50
Baglan Dragons
0.00
Queens Park
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Cwmbran Town
0.00
NFA
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Caldicot Town
0.00
Cwmbran Celtic
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Brickfield Rangers
0.00
Guilsfield
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Porthmadog is 0.75 points worse than Denbigh Town in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
5.83
Gresford Athletic
5.00
Buckley Town
4.50
Denbigh Town
3.50
Caersws
3.50
Flint Town United
3.50
Llandudno
3.33
Trefelin
3.33
Barry Town
3.00
Kinmel Bay
3.00
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
3.00
Cwmbran Celtic
3.00
Caerau (Ely)
3.00
Porthmadog
3.00
Airbus UK
2.75
Rhyl
2.50
Penydarren BGC
2.33
Swansea University
2.33
llanelli AFC
2.20
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.17
Briton Ferry
2.00
Carmarthen Town
1.75
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Bala Town
1.67
Mold Alexandra
1.67
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Cardiff Draconians
1.50
Llantwit Major
1.50
Penrhyncoch
1.50
Evans & Williams
1.46
Cefn Cribwr
1.46
Saltney Town
1.46
Afan United
1.46
Nefyn United
1.46
Tredegar Town
1.46
Lliswerry
1.46
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
1.46
CPD Sychdyn United
1.46
Berriew
1.46
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
1.46
Llanfair United
1.46
Glynneath Town
1.46
Dinas Powys
1.46
Llanrug United
1.46
Blaenavon Blues
1.46
Port Talbot Town
1.46
Pentwynmawr Athletic
1.46
Pwllheli
1.46
Abercarn United
1.46
Rhostyllen
1.46
Forden United
1.46
Broughton United FC
1.46
Dolgellau Athletic
1.46
Hawarden Rangers
1.46
Penygraig United FC
1.46
Bow Street
1.46
Welshpool Town
1.46
Tata Steel
1.46
Cwmbach Royal Stars
1.46
Ynyshir Albions
1.46
Treowen Stars
1.46
Caerphilly Athletic
1.46
Pontyclun
1.46
Cwm Welfare AFC
1.46
Garden Village
1.46
Canton Liberal
1.46
Rhayader Town
1.46
Pill AFC
1.33
Trearddur Bay
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.20
Ammanford AFC
1.00
Baglan Dragons
1.00
Queens Park
1.00
Morriston Town
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Cwmbran Town
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
NFA
1.00
Caldicot Town
1.00
Brickfield Rangers
1.00
Ruthin Town
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Cardiff MET
1.00
Holyhead Hotspur
1.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Caernarfon Town
0.00
St Asaph City
0.00
Taffs Well
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Cefn Albion
0.00
Llanberis
0.00
Llwydcoed
0.00
Penybont
0.00
Guilsfield
0.00
Aberystwyth Town
0.00
Pontypridd Town
0.00
Newport City
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Porthmadog is 0.50 goals worse than Denbigh Town in terms of goals scored per game (3.00 vs 3.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Caernarfon Town
0.00
Goytre United
0.00
Newtown AFC
0.00
Holyhead Hotspur
0.00
Trethomas Bluebirds
0.00
llanelli AFC
0.40
Ammanford AFC
0.50
Cardiff Draconians
0.50
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Morriston Town
0.67
Trearddur Bay
0.67
Taffs Well
1.00
Flint Mountain
1.00
Llanefydd
1.00
Llwydcoed
1.00
Penybont
1.00
Denbigh Town
1.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.00
Briton Ferry
1.00
Holywell
1.00
Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Llantwit Major
1.00
Mold Alexandra
1.00
Swansea University
1.33
Bala Town
1.33
Afan Lido
1.33
Caerau (Ely)
1.50
Porthmadog
1.50
Bangor City 1876 FC
1.50
Ruthin Town
1.50
Flint Town United
1.50
Airbus UK
1.50
Cardiff MET
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.60
Trefelin
1.67
Penydarren BGC
1.67
Caersws
1.75
Llandudno
2.00
St Asaph City
2.00
Pill AFC
2.00
NFA
2.00
Caldicot Town
2.00
Buckley Town
2.00
Pontypridd Town
2.00
Newport City
2.00
Penrhyncoch
2.00
Carmarthen Town
2.00
Evans & Williams
2.17
Cefn Cribwr
2.17
Saltney Town
2.17
Afan United
2.17
Nefyn United
2.17
Tredegar Town
2.17
Lliswerry
2.17
Seven Sisters Onllwyn
2.17
CPD Sychdyn United
2.17
Berriew
2.17
Abertillery Excelsiors AFC
2.17
Llanfair United
2.17
Glynneath Town
2.17
Dinas Powys
2.17
Llanrug United
2.17
Blaenavon Blues
2.17
Port Talbot Town
2.17
Pentwynmawr Athletic
2.17
Pwllheli
2.17
Abercarn United
2.17
Rhostyllen
2.17
Forden United
2.17
Broughton United FC
2.17
Dolgellau Athletic
2.17
Hawarden Rangers
2.17
Penygraig United FC
2.17
Bow Street
2.17
Welshpool Town
2.17
Tata Steel
2.17
Cwmbach Royal Stars
2.17
Ynyshir Albions
2.17
Treowen Stars
2.17
Caerphilly Athletic
2.17
Pontyclun
2.17
Cwm Welfare AFC
2.17
Garden Village
2.17
Canton Liberal
2.17
Rhayader Town
2.17
Colwyn Bay
2.33
Kinmel Bay
2.50
Penrhiwceiber Rangers
2.50
Gresford Athletic
2.50
Barry Town
3.00
Cwmbran Town
3.00
Brickfield Rangers
3.00
Llanberis
4.00
Cwmbran Celtic
4.00
Rhyl
4.00
Baglan Dragons
5.00
Cefn Albion
5.00
Guilsfield
5.00
Queens Park
6.00
Porthmadog is 0.50 goals worse than Denbigh Town in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Porthmadog or Draw✓ Hit
49.2%
Avg Implied -
29%
21%
51%
covers Porthmadog + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog or Denbigh Town✗ Miss
79.3%
Avg Implied -
29%
21%
51%
covers Porthmadog + Denbigh Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Denbigh Town✓ Hit
71.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
21%
51%
covers Draw + Denbigh Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Porthmadog over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
83.6%
Under
16.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
54.0%
Under
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
27.2%
Under
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
Under
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
91.0%
Under
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
69.3%
Under
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
22.2%
Under
77.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Porthmadog, so a minus line means Porthmadog give that many goals of a start and Denbigh Town receive them. At -1, Porthmadog must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Porthmadog win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Porthmadog)Actual: Denbigh Town
Porthmadog -2
6.1%
Draw -2
8.5%
Denbigh Town +2
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Porthmadog)Actual: Denbigh Town
Porthmadog -1
14.6%
Draw -1
14.0%
Denbigh Town +1
71.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Porthmadog)Actual: Porthmadog
Porthmadog +1
49.2%
Draw +1
18.8%
Denbigh Town -1
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Porthmadog)Actual: Porthmadog
Porthmadog +2
68.0%
Draw +2
15.0%
Denbigh Town -2
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

PorthmadogPorthmadog

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W00D10W02L00D01L01L20W00D03LA·LLA24/02H·GRE02/03H·BUC09/03A·GUI16/03H·AIR29/03A·CHI01/04H·HOL19/04A·QUE21/09H·AIR19/10H·DEN20/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.870.560.750.711.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.680.930.640.860.711.00
vs Weaker (2)0.000.000.000.00--
Clean sheet %37% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L10W01L20W21W10W11D10W30WH·LLA04/04A·GRE12/04H·CAE25/07H·HOL08/08A·GRE15/08H·MOL22/08A·PEN25/08H·BUC05/09H·FLI12/09A·POR20/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.500.940.471.380.54
vs Stronger (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
vs Similar (22)1.140.551.000.501.300.60
vs Weaker (7)1.140.430.800.402.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Porthmadog over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

PorthmadogPorthmadog

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L03L02L03L10W02L41W02L11DA·LLA24/02H·GRE02/03H·BUC09/03A·GUI16/03H·AIR29/03A·CHI01/04H·HOL19/04A·QUE21/09H·AIR19/10H·DEN20/09
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.601.430.311.500.931.36
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (28)0.641.360.361.360.931.36
vs Weaker (2)0.002.500.002.50--
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Denbigh Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-430W32W22D11D30W10W01L00D41W11DH·LLA04/04A·GRE12/04H·CAE25/07H·HOL08/08A·GRE15/08H·MOL22/08A·PEN25/08H·BUC05/09H·FLI12/09A·POR20/09
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.001.411.121.080.85
vs Stronger (1)2.000.00--2.000.00
vs Similar (22)1.450.771.670.831.200.70
vs Weaker (7)0.571.860.801.800.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Porthmadog) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Porthmadog over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Porthmadog over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Denbigh Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.593.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.592.9%-------✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals91.0%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals89.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.586.6%-------✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap85.4%-------✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals83.6%-------✓ Hit
Home or Away79.3%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.579.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals77.8%-------✓ Hit
BTTS Yes76.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.575.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals72.8%-------✓ Hit
Draw or Away71.4%-------✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap71.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
NC (4)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AT (2)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
RHY (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
NC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
NC (2)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
RHY (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
1
POR wins
0
Draws
2
DT wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Porthmadog vs Denbigh Town · H/A from POR
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25HPOR Vs Denbigh Town1-4
02/02/24ADenbigh Town Vs POR3-1
30/09/23HPOR Vs Denbigh Town2-1

PorthmadogPorthmadog

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25HPOR Vs Denbigh Town1-4
19/10/24HPOR Vs Airbus UK0-2
21/09/24AQueens Park Vs POR1-6
19/04/24HPOR Vs Holywell0-3
01/04/24AChirk AAA Vs POR1-1
29/03/24HPOR Vs Airbus UK0-3
16/03/24AGuilsfield Vs POR4-0
09/03/24HPOR Vs Buckley Town1-3
02/03/24HPOR Vs Gresford Athletic0-1
24/02/24ALlanidloes Town Vs POR1-2

Denbigh TownDenbigh Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
20/09/25APorthmadog Vs DT1-4
12/09/25HDT Vs Flint Mountain5-1
05/09/25HDT Vs Buckley Town1-1
25/08/25APenrhyncoch Vs DT1-1
22/08/25HDT Vs Mold Alexandra3-1
15/08/25AGresford Athletic Vs DT0-5
08/08/25HDT Vs Holywell1-2
25/07/25HDT Vs Caersws3-2
12/04/25AGresford Athletic Vs DT3-3
04/04/25HDT Vs Llay Miners Welfare5-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Porthmadog
Porthmadog
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWLL0.84
HomeLLLLL0.77
AwayWWLDW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %24%23%25%
AVG goals3.363.123.62
Over 1.5 %88%85%92%
Over 2.5 %72%65%79%
Over 3.5 %48%42%54%
Scored1.201.041.38
Conceded2.162.082.25
BTTS62%50%75%
Clean Sheet2%4%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Denbigh Town
Denbigh Town
Wales: Welsh Cup
Recent: 6 Wins / 3 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWW1.52
HomeWLWDW1.70
AwayLDWDW1.30
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%35%
AVG goals4.344.374.30
Over 1.5 %94%96%91%
Over 2.5 %78%81%74%
Over 3.5 %58%59%57%
Scored2.482.632.30
Conceded1.861.742.00
BTTS70%78%61%
Clean Sheet16%11%22%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

Denbigh Town plays in Wales - FAW Championship
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LlandudnoLlandudno3080
87%
2.7
7722+55
3.3
83%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.60.7
-
2TrefelinTrefelin3078
83%
2.6
8317+66
3.3
93%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.80.6
-
3Cambrian & ClydachCambrian & Clydach3076
80%
2.5
7520+55
3.2
87%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.50.7
-
4Airbus UKAirbus UK3075
80%
2.5
9322+71
3.8
93%
83%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0003.10.7
-
5HolywellHolywell3060
60%
2.0
7840+38
3.9
87%
73%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.3
-
6Caerau (Ely)Caerau (Ely)3160
58%
1.9
6734+33
3.3
81%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.1
-
7Ammanford AFCAmmanford AFC3060
57%
2.0
4926+23
2.5
70%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.9
-
8Newtown AFCNewtown AFC3048
50%
1.6
5149+2
3.3
87%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
9RhylRhyl3046
47%
1.5
4655-9
3.4
80%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
10Carmarthen TownCarmarthen Town3045
37%
1.5
4538+7
2.8
67%
37%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
11Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth Town3044
43%
1.5
3538-3
2.4
63%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.3
-
12GuilsfieldGuilsfield3043
43%
1.4
5048+2
3.3
77%
70%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
13Mold AlexandraMold Alexandra3041
40%
1.4
3845-7
2.8
77%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
-
14Cardiff DraconiansCardiff Draconians3040
40%
1.3
5048+2
3.3
77%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
15Denbigh TownDenbigh Town3040
40%
1.3
5259-7
3.7
87%
77%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.0
-
16Llantwit MajorLlantwit Major3037
30%
1.2
4447-3
3.0
83%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
17CaerswsCaersws3037
37%
1.2
4651-5
3.2
83%
63%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
18Brickfield RangersBrickfield Rangers3037
37%
1.2
3949-10
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
19Treowen StarsTreowen Stars3037
33%
1.2
5163-12
3.8
90%
70%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.1
-
20Newport CityNewport City3037
30%
1.2
3648-12
2.8
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
21Holyhead HotspurHolyhead Hotspur3036
33%
1.2
4449-5
3.1
73%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.6
-
22PenrhyncochPenrhyncoch3035
33%
1.2
4553-8
3.3
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
23Pontypridd TownPontypridd Town3034
30%
1.1
4651-5
3.2
80%
60%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
24Afan LidoAfan Lido3030
30%
1.0
3257-25
3.0
67%
53%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
25Buckley TownBuckley Town3030
30%
1.0
5077-27
4.2
90%
80%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.72.6
-
26Trethomas BluebirdsTrethomas Bluebirds3029
20%
1.0
4562-17
3.6
90%
63%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.1
-
27Flint MountainFlint Mountain3029
30%
1.0
3961-22
3.3
83%
73%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.0
-
28Gresford AthleticGresford Athletic3028
27%
0.9
4787-40
4.5
90%
80%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.62.9
-
29Baglan DragonsBaglan Dragons3125
16%
0.8
2653-27
2.5
68%
48%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.7
-
30Ruthin TownRuthin Town3023
20%
0.8
3664-28
3.3
77%
67%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
31Ynyshir AlbionsYnyshir Albions3023
17%
0.8
2756-29
2.8
80%
53%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.9
-
32Cwmbran CelticCwmbran Celtic3010
3%
0.3
2578-53
3.4
83%
70%
53%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.6
-
Wales: FAW Championship 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

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