Porthmadog enter the match after a draw that left them still searching for momentum, while Ruthin Town are still reeling from two straight defeats. The model sees the contest as finely balanced, with a 37% chance of a home win, 29% for a draw and 34% for an away win, and it picks a home win as the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals is 2.6, with the single most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 13.8%. Porthmadog have averaged 1.11 goals scored and 1.44 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Ruthin Town have scored 1.11 and conceded 1.67 on the road against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 74.6% and Under 3.5 goals at 73.5%. All probabilities are expressed as percentages and every selection is listed.
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, a home win, failed to materialise when Ruthin Town stormed to a 0-4 victory. The model had picked a home win with a 37% probability, but the outcome was an away win. The final score of 0-4 was a stark contrast to the predicted 2-goal total, which the model expected at 2.6. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals hit with a 74.6% probability, while its Under 3.5 selection missed at 73.5%. Porthmadog were coming off a draw, and Ruthin Town were after two straight defeats, yet the away side dominated, proving the model’s favourite was wrong.
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.21 | 1.63 | 1.11 | 1.44 | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.21 | 1.63 | 1.11 | 1.44 | 1.30 | 1.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 21% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.35 | 1.75 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.09 | 1.55 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.41 | 1.88 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.11 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 15% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
| Ruthin Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 14% | 8.0% | 3.4% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.58 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.58 | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 58% (+36pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 1.22 | 0.55 | 0.82 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.76 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 0.56 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.63 | 1.00 | 0.11 | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.78 | 0.78 | 0.55 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (17) | 0.65 | 0.88 | 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.56 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 45% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 73.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Porthmadog| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 14/01/23 | H | 0-1 | |
| 06/01/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 02/01/23 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/12/22 | H | 3-1 | |
| 06/12/22 | A | 4-0 | |
| 26/11/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 19/11/22 | A | 3-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 1-2 | |
| 29/10/22 | A | 0-2 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/01/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/01/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/01/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 27/12/22 | H | 1-6 | |
| 17/12/22 | A | 1-2 | |
| 07/12/22 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/11/22 | H | 1-4 | |
| 19/11/22 | A | 0-1 | |
| 05/11/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 29/10/22 | A | 4-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 83 | 90% | 2.8 | 101 | 24 | +77 | 4.2 | 100% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | - |
| 2 | Holywell | 30 | 79 | 87% | 2.6 | 75 | 22 | +53 | 3.2 | 93% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 3 | Barry Town | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 78 | 25 | +53 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Llandudno | 30 | 66 | 67% | 2.2 | 70 | 23 | +47 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 62 | 63% | 2.1 | 63 | 34 | +29 | 3.2 | 77% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| 6 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 72 | 33 | +39 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Guilsfield | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 58 | 37 | +21 | 3.2 | 80% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.2 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 52 | 53% | 1.7 | 66 | 41 | +25 | 3.6 | 80% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 9 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 51 | 53% | 1.7 | 47 | 44 | +3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 64 | 53 | +11 | 3.9 | 87% | 70% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 11 | Afan Lido | 30 | 47 | 43% | 1.6 | 61 | 52 | +9 | 3.8 | 93% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 12 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 66 | 48 | +18 | 3.8 | 93% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 46 | 40 | +6 | 2.9 | 77% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 14 | Cefn Druids AFC | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 47 | 64 | -17 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 15 | Buckley Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 62 | 53 | +9 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 37 | 40% | 1.2 | 51 | 73 | -22 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.4 | - |
| 18 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 3.1 | 83% | 63% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.7 | - |
| 19 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 32 | 43 | -11 | 2.5 | 70% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.4 | - |
| 20 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 33 | 27% | 1.1 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 21 | Porthmadog | 30 | 33 | 33% | 1.1 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 3.0 | 87% | 63% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 3.5 | 80% | 57% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Goytre United | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 45 | 67 | -22 | 3.7 | 93% | 67% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 35 | 60 | -25 | 3.2 | 80% | 53% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 25 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 3.5 | 93% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Trefelin | 30 | 27 | 23% | 0.9 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 3.9 | 97% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | - |
| 27 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 26 | 17% | 0.9 | 32 | 49 | -17 | 2.7 | 77% | 47% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6 | - |
| 28 | Swansea University | 30 | 26 | 20% | 0.9 | 30 | 64 | -34 | 3.1 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.1 | - |
| 29 | Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 24 | 23% | 0.8 | 33 | 67 | -34 | 3.3 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.2 | - |
| 30 | Conwy Borough | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 33 | 64 | -31 | 3.2 | 83% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 16 | 10% | 0.5 | 31 | 72 | -41 | 3.4 | 93% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.4 | - |
| 32 | Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 15 | 7% | 0.5 | 24 | 69 | -45 | 3.1 | 90% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.3 | - |