The match between Porthmadog and Ruthin Town is a tight affair, with the model favouring a home win. Home advantage is modest, as Porthmadog average 1.13 goals scored and 1.87 conceded against similar opposition, while Ruthin Town, on the road, averages 1.33 scored and 1.67 conceded. The expected total goals hover at 2.8, with the most probable total being two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% chance. Home win probability sits at 40%, draw at 27%, and away win at 33%. The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.7% probability, and this is the only pick offered. The recent form shows Porthmadog coming off a draw, whereas Ruthin Town has endured two straight defeats. These nuances underline the fine balance, but the model still points to a Porthmadog victory as the most likely outcome.
The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite, a home win for Porthmadog, failed to materialise. The final score was 2-3, giving Ruthin Town the away victory. The model had picked a home win with a 40% probability, but this call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.7% chance, and it hit. Porthmadog, coming off a draw in their last five, had been expected to extend their run, yet they fell short. Ruthin Town, after two straight defeats, turned the tide to secure the win. The match finished with a total of five goals, well above the model’s expected 2.8.
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.13 | 1.87 | 1.27 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.21 | 2.00 | 1.13 | 1.87 | 1.29 | 2.14 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 3% (-19pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.87 | 1.47 | 2.26 | 1.32 | 1.18 | 1.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (25) | 1.84 | 1.52 | 2.12 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 2.00 | 1.20 | 3.00 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Ruthin Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.6% | 13% | 7.9% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.90 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.53 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.55 | 0.90 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.79 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.63 | 0.45 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.85 | 0.73 | 1.06 | 0.69 | 0.50 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Porthmadog| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.73 | 1.33 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.66 | 1.10 | 0.60 | 0.87 | 0.71 | 1.36 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 1.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Ruthin Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 0.77 | 1.26 | 0.68 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.00 | 0.77 | 1.06 | 0.75 | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.75 | 0.75 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 04/02/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 28/01/23 | H | 0-4 |
Porthmadog| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/24 | A | 4-1 | |
| 26/12/23 | H | 0-4 | |
| 15/12/23 | A | 3-0 | |
| 18/11/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/11/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 27/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/10/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 07/10/23 | A | 5-1 | |
| 30/09/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 22/09/23 | A | 3-2 |
Ruthin Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/24 | H | 4-0 | |
| 26/12/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/12/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/12/23 | H | 6-1 | |
| 17/11/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 27/10/23 | H | 1-1 | |
| 21/10/23 | H | 2-3 | |
| 06/10/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 30/09/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/09/23 | H | 3-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Holywell | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 79 | 17 | +62 | 3.2 | 90% | 70% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | Flint Town United | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 94 | 30 | +64 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Airbus UK | 30 | 74 | 77% | 2.5 | 84 | 28 | +56 | 3.7 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 71 | 77% | 2.4 | 86 | 39 | +47 | 4.2 | 97% | 87% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 67% | 2.1 | 80 | 40 | +40 | 4.0 | 97% | 83% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 60 | 42 | +18 | 3.4 | 77% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 55 | 60% | 1.8 | 66 | 50 | +16 | 3.9 | 90% | 83% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 53 | 57% | 1.8 | 62 | 55 | +7 | 3.9 | 90% | 87% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 47% | 1.7 | 60 | 37 | +23 | 3.2 | 87% | 50% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 70 | 60 | +10 | 4.3 | 93% | 87% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 47 | 40% | 1.6 | 50 | 39 | +11 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 13 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 68 | +0 | 4.5 | 97% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 | Goytre United | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 3.9 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 3.7 | 93% | 77% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 69 | 64 | +5 | 4.4 | 97% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 60 | 52 | +8 | 3.7 | 93% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 2.9 | 87% | 57% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 19 | Guilsfield | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 3.1 | 87% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 20 | Trefelin | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 3.6 | 90% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 21 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Buckley Town | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 3.8 | 90% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 35 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 3.3 | 73% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 87% | 57% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 4.1 | 90% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Llandudno | 30 | 31 | 33% | 1.0 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 4.6 | 97% | 93% | 73% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - |
| 27 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 26 | 23% | 0.9 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 3.8 | 90% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | - |
| 28 | Porthmadog | 30 | 22 | 20% | 0.7 | 35 | 66 | -31 | 3.4 | 87% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 29 | Abertillery Bluebirds | 30 | 18 | 13% | 0.6 | 42 | 90 | -48 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 13 | 10% | 0.4 | 32 | 82 | -50 | 3.8 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | - |
| 31 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 9 | 7% | 0.3 | 25 | 106 | -81 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 8 | 7% | 0.3 | 20 | 84 | -64 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | - |