Portimonense are the clear favourites, with a 43 % chance of victory, a 29 % draw probability and a 29 % chance for Leixões. The model expects 2.6 goals on average, and the most likely total is 2 goals, 27 % of the time. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.7 % chance. Portimonense, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. Leixões, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.45 scored and 1.55 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6 %), Under 6.5 (98.4 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9 % with a 7 % edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.7 % with a 5 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.2 % with a 2 % edge), Under 5.5 (95.4 % with a 2 % edge) and Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.3 % with a 4 % edge).
Results analysis
The upset came as Portimonense, the pre-match favourite, failed to deliver a home win, with Leixões snatching a 0-2 victory. The model had selected a home win at 43% probability, but that call proved wrong. The match was a low-scoring affair, matching the model’s most likely 2-goal total, yet the scoreline fell short of the 1-1 and 1-0 scenarios. The model’s picks were all correct: Under 7.5 (99.5%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.5%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.4%) hit, Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.9%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.2%) hit, Home under 2.5 2H goals (95.7%) hit, and Under 5.5 (95.4%) hit. The result underlined Leixões’ strong away form, coming off a win, while Portimonense’s recent run of defeats proved costly.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Portimonense win✗ Miss
42.8%
Avg Implied 32.9% · @ 2.78
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.95
10Bet
2.92
Superbet
2.92
Betano
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 29.0% · @ 3.16
Edge
-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.37
Dafabet
3.30
10Bet
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Leixoes win✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied 38.1% · @ 2.40
Edge
-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
2.75
Pinnacle
2.53
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Dafabet
2.45
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Portimonense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.27
1.14
1.21
1.00
1.31
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
1.60
1.50
1.00
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.00
1.20
1.08
1.25
0.92
1.15
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.57
1.40
1.87
1.27
1.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
0.86
1.00
1.33
1.25
0.50
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.78
1.50
2.00
1.27
1.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.8%
@ 1.31+2.9%
Under 1.5
26.2%
@ 3.18-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Under
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.33
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.2%
@ 2.00+0.5%
Under 2.5
52.8%
@ 1.75-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.10
Pinnacle
2.06
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.05
1xBet
2.01
Under
Unibet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.78
10Bet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Marathonbet
1.76
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
25.6%
@ 3.46-1.2%
Under 3.5
74.4%
@ 1.27+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
3.75
Pinnacle
3.66
BetVictor
3.60
Betfair
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Under
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.8%
@ 1.76+0.2%
No
47.2%
@ 1.95-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
888Sport
1.85
Bet365
1.80
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
Superbet
1.77
No
Unibet
2.10
1xBet
1.97
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Betfair
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%@ 5.76+6.1%
1-0
9.8%@ 7.85+4.2%
0-0
9.0%@ 8.49+3.8%
2-1
8.9%@ 9.53+4.4%
2-0
7.9%@ 12.65+4.5%
0-1
7.5%@ 7.15+1.3%
1-2
7.0%@ 8.58+2.0%
2-2
5.1%@ 13.16+1.7%
Portimonense goals ↓
Leixoes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
7.5%
4.9%
1.9%
0.5%
1
9.8%
14%
7.0%
2.7%
0.7%
2
7.9%
8.9%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
3.8%
4.3%
2.4%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Portimonense goals (down), columns = Leixoes goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Portimonense is 0.29 points worse than Leixoes in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Portimonense is 0.21 goals worse than Leixoes in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Portimonense is 0.18 goals better than Leixoes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.62).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Portimonense is 1.7 percentage points worse than Leixoes in terms of average possession (48% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Portimonense
For 4.6 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 17.9 · Total 31.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leixoes
For 4.2 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.8 · Against 15.0 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Portimonense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.7
10.7
4.4
4.2
4.7
24.2
22.8
25.8
vs Stronger (10)
9.8
9.0
10.3
4.0
2.5
5.0
24.2
22.0
26.3
vs Similar (40)
12.0
13.0
11.0
4.5
4.5
4.6
24.2
23.2
25.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
85%
83%
86%
68%
60%
76%
71%
67%
75%
% under line
15%
17%
14%
32%
40%
24%
29%
33%
25%
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.9
9.0
5.0
5.0
5.1
26.4
31.5
21.9
vs Stronger (12)
10.0
9.0
12.0
5.1
5.8
4.8
20.2
23.0
17.5
vs Similar (38)
8.6
8.8
8.4
5.0
4.8
5.3
28.3
34.3
23.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
36%
25%
50%
74%
79%
69%
76%
88%
67%
% under line
64%
75%
50%
26%
21%
31%
24%
12%
33%
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.2
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.8
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.5
Feirense
9.0
Leixoes
8.9
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.6
Vizela
6.3
Leixoes
6.0
FC Porto B
6.0
Chaves
5.9
Sporting CP B
5.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.8
União de Leiria
5.6
Farense
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Tondela
5.2
Torreense
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.3
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.7
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
FC Porto B
21.9
Penafiel
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Portimonense
20.8
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.1%
@ 1.81-2.9%
Under 9.5
51.9%
@ 1.89+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.90
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.78
Under
Pinnacle
1.98
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
84.1%
Under 3.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.0%
Under 21.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Portimonense or Draw✗ Miss
71.5%
Avg Implied 61.6% · @ 1.50
Edge
+9.9%
43%
29%
28%
covers Portimonense + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Portimonense or Leixoes✓ Hit
71.3%
Avg Implied 71.4% · @ 1.30
Edge
-0.2%
43%
29%
28%
covers Portimonense + Leixoes
Best 5 market prices
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
Draw or Leixoes✓ Hit
57.2%
Avg Implied 66.9% · @ 1.38
Edge
-9.7%
43%
29%
28%
covers Draw + Leixoes
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.44
888Sport
1.44
William Hil
1.40
BetVictor
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Portimonense over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
76.1%
@ 1.34+6.8%
Under
23.9%
@ 3.03-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.20
Pinnacle
3.20
888Sport
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
BetVictor
3.00
Portimonense over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
42.0%
@ 2.64+6.8%
Under
58.0%
@ 1.43-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.78
10Bet
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.67
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
Betano
1.44
888Sport
1.44
BetVictor
1.44
Portimonense over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.5%
@ 6.52+3.2%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.08-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
1xBet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.65
BetVictor
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Portimonense over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
@ 16.80+0.0%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.02-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
888Sport
19.00
1xBet
17.00
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
888Sport
1.02
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Leixoes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
67.7%
@ 1.29-4.4%
Under
32.3%
@ 3.31+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.33
Betano
1.30
BetVictor
1.29
Betfair
1.29
Pinnacle
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.45
10Bet
3.45
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Leixoes over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.2%
@ 2.39-7.7%
Under
68.8%
@ 1.52+7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.75
Pinnacle
2.52
Betfair
2.50
Marathonbet
2.45
BetVictor
2.40
Under
Unibet
1.62
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Leixoes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
10.6%
@ 5.67-5.8%
Under
89.4%
@ 1.11+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
7.00
Betfair
6.00
Marathonbet
5.85
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Under
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Leixoes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 16.35-3.1%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
23.00
1xBet
21.00
Bet365
15.00
Superbet
13.00
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Portimonense, so a minus line means Portimonense give that many goals of a start and Leixoes receive them. At -1, Portimonense must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Portimonense win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Portimonense)Actual: Leixoes
Portimonense -2
8.1%
@ 14.67+1.9%
Draw -2
13.2%
@ 8.23+2.1%
Leixoes +2
78.8%
@ 1.10-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
13.00
Draw
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.70
Away
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Handicap -1 (Portimonense)Actual: Leixoes
Portimonense -1
21.2%
@ 5.76+6.0%
Draw -1
21.5%
@ 4.26+0.8%
Leixoes +1
57.2%
@ 1.37-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Betfair
5.50
Unibet
4.90
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.75
Away
Betfair
1.44
Marathonbet
1.40
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.29
Handicap +1 (Portimonense)Actual: Leixoes
Portimonense +1
71.5%
@ 1.52+13.6%
Draw +1
16.7%
@ 3.85-6.2%
Leixoes -1
11.8%
@ 4.57-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Draw
Marathonbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Handicap +2 (Portimonense)Actual: Draw
Portimonense +2
88.2%
@ 1.14+10.5%
Draw +2
8.2%
@ 6.45-5.5%
Leixoes -2
3.6%
@ 10.16-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Draw
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Portimonense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.33
0.57
0.29
0.31
0.38
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.40
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (25)
0.36
0.32
0.58
0.25
0.15
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.47
1.00
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (7)
0.71
0.43
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.91
0.50
1.08
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
68.0%
@ 1.40+1.9%
Under 0.5
32.0%
@ 2.74-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.42
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Marathonbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.95
Betfair
2.88
10Bet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
32.1%
@ 2.85-0.4%
Under 1.5
67.9%
@ 1.37+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.05
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.95
1xBet
2.95
Pinnacle
2.90
Under
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
10Bet
1.40
BetVictor
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.2%
@ 7.49-2.2%
Under 2.5
89.8%
@ 1.06+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
1xBet
7.80
William Hil
7.50
Under
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
48.5%
@ 2.21+6.4%
Under
51.5%
@ 1.61-6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.21
Marathonbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.60
Superbet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Portimonense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
12.4%
@ 7.50+0.0%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.06-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
8.00
Superbet
7.30
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.90
Under
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
Portimonense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 22.83-2.1%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Superbet
27.00
Betano
12.50
Under
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Leixoes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
36.8%
@ 2.06-8.2%
Under
63.2%
@ 1.69+8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Superbet
1.68
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Leixoes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.3%
@ 6.65-5.6%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.08+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.50
1xBet
7.00
Superbet
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Betano
6.20
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Leixoes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 18.67-3.6%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Portimonense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.93
0.57
0.93
0.69
0.94
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.20
1.00
0.50
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (25)
0.64
0.88
0.50
1.00
0.77
0.77
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Leixoes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Leixoes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.77
0.93
0.87
0.53
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.43
0.67
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.87
1.00
0.92
0.64
0.82
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Portimonense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.3%
@ 1.25+4.1%
Under 0.5
21.7%
@ 3.58-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.60
10Bet
3.55
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
39.3%
@ 2.20-3.1%
Under 1.5
60.7%
@ 1.62+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
William Hil
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.62
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.62
William Hil
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
15.3%
@ 4.85-3.9%
Under 2.5
84.7%
@ 1.15+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Superbet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Portimonense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
59.0%
@ 1.88+9.7%
Under
41.0%
@ 1.83-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.95
Superbet
1.90
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Under
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.84
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.82
10Bet
1.77
Portimonense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
20.9%
@ 5.49+4.0%
Under
79.1%
@ 1.11-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.65
Superbet
5.40
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Portimonense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 16.33-1.5%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
21.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Leixoes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
46.9%
@ 1.75-5.9%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.96+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Under
Betano
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Superbet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
1xBet
1.93
Leixoes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 4.80-7.5%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.15+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Superbet
4.75
10Bet
4.50
Betano
4.45
Under
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Leixoes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
@ 12.67-5.3%
Under
97.8%
@ 1.02+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.9%
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.03
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
888Sport
1.01
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
888Sport
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.02
888Sport
1.02
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.08
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+5.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.8%
1.06
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.4%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Superbet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Pinnacle
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.2%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.16
Betfair
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+10.5%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
1.15
Betano
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+7.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.06
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
82.5%
1.08
Betano
1.11
888Sport
1.10
Betfair
1.10
BetVictor
1.08
10Bet
1.08
-3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
79.1%
1.11
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
78.8%
1.10
Betfair
1.10
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
-
-
-4.0%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.3%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
76.1%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.35
+6.8%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.9%
1.32
Superbet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.31
Betano
1.31
-
+5.5%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.4%
1.27
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.29
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.8%
1.31
Betano
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
71.5%
1.50
Betano
1.60
10Bet
1.57
William Hil
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
+9.9%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
71.5%
1.52
10Bet
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.53
Unibet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
+13.6%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
71.3%
1.30
888Sport
1.36
William Hil
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Betano
1.32
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 4.5 cards
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Portimonense · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sarará50%
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Alexandre Fernando33%
Mesaque Dju25%
Welat Cagro20%
João Reis14%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Samuel Lobato14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Douglas Grolli0%
Xavier0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Thauan Lara0%
Marlon Junior0%
Francisco Canário0%
Danio Djassi0%
Samy0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Douglas Grolli50%
Sarará50%
Sébastien Cibois40%
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Xavier33%
Alexandre Fernando33%
Samuel Lobato29%
Mesaque Dju25%
Dauda Mohammed20%
Welat Cagro20%
Heitor17%
Samy17%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Marlon Junior14%
Welinton Junior0%
João Reis0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Thauan Lara0%
Francisco Canário0%
Danio Djassi0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Thauan Lara67%
Douglas Grolli25%
Tiago Ferreira14%
Samuel Lobato14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
João Reis0%
Welat Cagro0%
Xavier0%
Mesaque Dju0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Tamblé Monteiro0%
Sarará0%
Marlon Junior0%
Francisco Canário0%
Alexandre Fernando0%
Danio Djassi0%
Samy0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tamblé Monteiro40%
Tiago Ferreira29%
Mesaque Dju25%
Dauda Mohammed20%
Samy17%
João Reis14%
Sébastien Cibois0%
Welinton Junior0%
Heitor0%
Douglas Grolli0%
Welat Cagro0%
Xavier0%
Zé Gabriel0%
Maycon Cleiton0%
Sarará0%
Thauan Lara0%
Marlon Junior0%
Samuel Lobato0%
Francisco Canário0%
Alexandre Fernando0%
Danio Djassi0%
Jarleysom Amurim0%
Edney Henrique0%
Leixoes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Bryan Róchez80%
Benjamin Kanuric50%
José Bica50%
Bryan Róchez33%
Semeu Commey33%
Paulité25%
Ricardo Valente12%
Salvador Agra10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Simãozinho0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Cláudio Araújo0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Amadu Balde0%
Hugo Faria0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Neto50%
Paulinho Mota44%
Rafael Santos40%
Hugues Evrard33%
Miguel Sousa33%
Gonçalo Tabuaço33%
Benjamin Kanuric25%
Paulité25%
José Bica25%
Serif Nhaga25%
Hugo Faria25%
Werton22%
Salvador Agra20%
Simãozinho20%
Bryan Róchez20%
Amadu Balde17%
Cláudio Araújo10%
Ricardo Valente0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Semeu Commey0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Benjamin Kanuric25%
Cláudio Araújo20%
Amadu Balde17%
Lourenco Henriques14%
Salvador Agra10%
Simãozinho10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Paulité0%
José Bica0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Semeu Commey0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Bryan Róchez0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Hugo Faria0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
José Bica50%
Bryan Róchez40%
Bryan Róchez33%
Semeu Commey33%
Salvador Agra20%
Cláudio Araújo10%
Rafael Santos0%
Neto0%
Ricardo Valente0%
Paulinho Mota0%
Rafael Barbosa0%
Matheus Costa0%
Igor Stefanović0%
Simãozinho0%
Naldo0%
Miguel Ángel Morro0%
Hugues Evrard0%
Benjamin Kanuric0%
Miguel Sousa0%
Paulité0%
Werton0%
Gonçalo Tabuaço0%
Lourenco Henriques0%
Serif Nhaga0%
Miguel Rajani0%
Amadu Balde0%
Hugo Faria0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Portimonense and Leixoes have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Portimonense and Leixoes have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Portimonense and Leixoes have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Portimonense and Leixoes have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →
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Lusitânia Lourosa
Academica
Sporting CP B
Penafiel
Farense
Vizela
Benfica B
União de Leiria
Felgueiras 1932
AVS
Amarante
Tondela
FC Porto B
Torreense
Feirense
Chaves