Pythia gives Posušje a 49% win probability against Sloga Doboj in the Bosnia: Premijer Liga on 2026-05-22, with 33% for the draw and 18% for Sloga Doboj. The model estimates around 1.8 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 1-0 the most likely scoreline (18.5%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Under 3.5 (89%), Under 2.5 (73%).
Results analysis
Posušje finished 0-1 against Sloga Doboj (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 49% home win, 33% draw and 18% away win. Picks that landed: Under 3.5 (89%), Under 2.5 (73%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Posušje win✗ Miss
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj win✓ Hit
17.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Posušje
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
1.07
0.88
0.94
0.64
1.21
vs Stronger (10)
0.40
1.60
0.17
1.67
0.75
1.50
vs Similar (16)
1.00
0.75
1.50
0.62
0.50
0.88
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.40
0.64
1.14
0.38
1.62
vs Stronger (17)
0.18
1.94
0.14
2.00
0.20
1.90
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.69
1.14
0.29
0.67
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Posušje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
54.9%
Under 1.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
27.0%
Under 2.5
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.9%
Under 3.5
89.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
32.9%
No
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
18.5%
0-0
17.7%
1-1
13.2%
2-0
11.8%
0-1 ✓
8.8%
2-1
7.1%
3-0
4.7%
1-2
3.6%
Posušje goals ↓
Sloga Doboj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
18%
8.8%
3.0%
0.6%
0.1%
1
19%
13%
3.6%
0.7%
0.1%
2
12%
7.1%
2.2%
0.4%
0.1%
3
4.7%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
0.0%
4
1.4%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Posušje goals (down), columns = Sloga Doboj goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.39
Zrinjski
1.97
FK Sarajevo
1.81
Velež
1.42
Siroki Brijeg
1.25
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.17
Radnik Bijeljina
0.97
Sloga Doboj
0.94
Posušje
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.83
Posušje and Sloga Doboj are level in average points per game (both 0.94).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Borac Banja Luka
2.11
FK Sarajevo
1.50
Zrinjski
1.33
Siroki Brijeg
1.03
Velež
1.00
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.94
Rudar Prijedor
0.86
Radnik Bijeljina
0.75
Posušje
0.69
Sloga Doboj
0.58
Posušje is 0.11 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals scored per game (0.69 vs 0.58).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Borac Banja Luka
0.56
Zrinjski
0.69
Velež
0.97
FK Sarajevo
1.03
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.03
Posušje
1.14
Radnik Bijeljina
1.25
Sloga Doboj
1.28
Siroki Brijeg
1.33
Rudar Prijedor
1.53
Posušje is 0.14 goals better than Sloga Doboj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.28).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Posušje
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.43
0.44
0.31
0.43
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
0.70
0.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.31
0.88
0.25
0.38
0.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.25
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Sloga Doboj) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Sloga Doboj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.23
0.53
0.29
0.43
0.19
0.62
vs Stronger (17)
0.06
0.65
0.00
0.71
0.10
0.60
vs Similar (13)
0.46
0.38
0.57
0.14
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Posušje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Posušje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Posušje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Sloga Doboj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Bosnia: Premijer Liga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Bosnia: Premijer Liga stats & trends →