Prishtina is expected to secure a home win, having shown recent form that's been impacted by a defeat. This storyline is somewhat overshadowed by the fact that Prishtina has struggled to score at home, averaging 1.67 goals per match against weaker opponents, while conceding 0.67 goals on average. Meanwhile, Drenica Skënderaj has shown resilience away from home, scoring 0.69 goals on average against stronger opponents, but conceding 1.54 goals in the process.
The model predicts a 50% chance of a home win, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 22% chance of an away win. The expected total number of goals is 2.4, with 2 goals being the most likely total, occurring with a probability of 27%. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 13.5%.
In terms of suggested selections, the model has picked Under 3.5 with a probability of 78.2% and Over 1.5 with a probability of 70%. The home win percentage is 50%, the draw percentage is 29%, and the away win percentage is 22%.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Drenica Skënderaj secured a 1-2 away win against Prishtina, extending their run of decent form. The pre-match favourite, Prishtina, was predicted to win by the model, but unfortunately, the model's call was wrong. The model's selection, Home win, had a pre-match probability of 50%. Meanwhile, the model's suggested picks performed well, with 'Under 3.5' hitting and 'Over 1.5' also hitting, both with high probabilities of 78.2% and 70.0% respectively.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Prishtina win✗ Miss
49.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj win✓ Hit
21.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Prishtina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.37
1.33
0.87
1.27
1.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.14
1.00
0.33
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.19
1.33
1.11
1.00
1.29
vs Weaker (7)
2.00
2.00
1.67
0.67
2.25
3.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Drenica Skënderaj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drenica Skënderaj
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.60
1.88
1.62
0.86
1.57
vs Stronger (28)
1.39
1.57
2.00
1.60
0.69
1.54
vs Similar (2)
1.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.0%
Under 1.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
42.6%
Under 2.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.8%
Under 3.5
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.0%
No
53.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
12.5%
0-0
10.5%
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
7.0%
1-2 ✓
5.5%
3-0
5.0%
Prishtina goals ↓
Drenica Skënderaj goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
7.0%
3.7%
1.1%
0.2%
1
12%
14%
5.5%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.1%
4.1%
1.2%
0.3%
3
5.0%
4.5%
2.0%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.9%
1.7%
0.8%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Prishtina goals (down), columns = Drenica Skënderaj goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.50
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Ferizaj
1.00
Prishtina e Re
0.80
Liria Prizren
0.00
Prishtina is 0.07 points worse than Drenica Skënderaj in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 1.43).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Ferizaj
1.11
Prishtina e Re
1.03
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.00
Liria Prizren
0.00
Prishtina is 0.13 goals better than Drenica Skënderaj in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 1.31).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Ferizaj
1.53
Prishtina e Re
1.71
Liria Prizren
2.00
Prishtina is 0.07 goals better than Drenica Skënderaj in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.49).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Prishtina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.70
0.60
0.40
0.73
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.33
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (16)
0.62
0.62
0.67
0.56
0.57
0.71
vs Weaker (7)
1.00
0.71
0.67
0.33
1.25
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Drenica Skënderaj) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Drenica Skënderaj
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.75
0.56
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (28)
0.57
0.54
0.80
0.53
0.31
0.54
vs Similar (2)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Prishtina over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Drenica Skënderaj over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Superliga 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →
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Drita
Malisheva
Ballkani
Llapi
Dukagjini
Gjilani
Ferizaj
Prishtina e Re
Dinamo Ferizaj
Liria Prizren