Prishtina’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 4-0 demolition of Llapi give the model a clear edge at home, especially against Vushtrria’s weaker home form. The prediction favours a home win, with a 64% probability, followed by a 23% chance of a draw and only 12% for an away victory. The expected total of 2.6 goals points to a moderate scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring with a 13.4% probability. Home side Prishtina averages one goal scored and one conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Vushtrria, playing away against stronger teams, scores 1.29 and concedes 0.86 on average. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 2.5 goals (96.6%), Home +2 handicap (96.5%), Under 5.5 (95.3%), Under 4.5 (88.0%) and Home under 3.5 goals (87.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Prishtina win
64.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria win
12.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Prishtina
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.50
1.62
1.06
1.00
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.33
1.37
1.67
1.07
0.92
1.75
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.67
1.00
1.00
1.50
3.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vushtrria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.90
1.94
0.94
1.29
0.86
vs Stronger (30)
1.63
0.90
1.94
0.94
1.29
0.86
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.8%
Under 1.5
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
47.6%
Under 2.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.9%
Under 3.5
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.4%
1-0
13.3%
1-1
11.0%
2-1
9.4%
0-0
8.6%
3-0
8.4%
3-1
5.9%
0-1
4.3%
Prishtina goals ↓
Vushtrria goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
4.3%
1.9%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.5%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
8.4%
5.9%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
3.9%
2.8%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Prishtina goals (down), columns = Vushtrria goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Drita
1.83
Malisheva
1.64
Ballkani
1.61
Drenica Skënderaj
1.43
Dukagjini
1.42
Gjilani
1.42
Llapi
1.41
Prishtina
1.36
Feronikeli
1.04
Vushtrria
0.45
Prishtina is 0.91 points better than Vushtrria in terms of average points per game (1.36 vs 0.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ballkani
1.69
Malisheva
1.61
Prishtina
1.44
Drita
1.39
Drenica Skënderaj
1.31
Gjilani
1.31
Llapi
1.30
Dukagjini
1.17
Feronikeli
0.97
Vushtrria
0.42
Prishtina is 1.03 goals better than Vushtrria in terms of goals scored per game (1.44 vs 0.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Drita
0.97
Dukagjini
1.00
Ballkani
1.14
Gjilani
1.33
Llapi
1.35
Malisheva
1.39
Prishtina
1.42
Drenica Skënderaj
1.49
Feronikeli
1.68
Vushtrria
3.89
Prishtina is 2.47 goals better than Vushtrria in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 3.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Prishtina or Draw
87.8%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
12%
covers Prishtina + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Prishtina or Vushtrria
76.6%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
12%
covers Prishtina + Vushtrria
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Vushtrria
35.5%
Avg Implied -
64%
23%
12%
covers Draw + Vushtrria
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Prishtina over/under 0.5
Over
84.7%
Under
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 1.5
Over
56.0%
Under
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 2.5
Over
29.1%
Under
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 3.5
Over
12.2%
Under
87.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 0.5
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 1.5
Over
15.6%
Under
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 2.5
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Prishtina, so a minus line means Prishtina give that many goals of a start and Vushtrria receive them. At -1, Prishtina must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Prishtina win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Prishtina)
Prishtina -2
19.2%
Draw -2
20.3%
Vushtrria +2
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Prishtina)
Prishtina -1
39.5%
Draw -1
24.9%
Vushtrria +1
35.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Prishtina)
Prishtina +1
87.8%
Draw +1
8.7%
Vushtrria -1
3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Prishtina)
Prishtina +2
96.5%
Draw +2
2.8%
Vushtrria -2
0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Prishtina
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.81
0.50
0.57
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.74
0.80
0.53
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vushtrria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
1.07
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Stronger (30)
0.73
0.37
1.07
0.40
0.40
0.33
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
65.1%
Under 0.5
34.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
29.2%
Under 1.5
70.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.9%
Under 2.5
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Prishtina over/under 0.5 HT
Over
38.6%
Under
61.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
43.2%
Under
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.8%
Under
88.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Prishtina
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.81
0.56
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.63
0.87
0.53
0.42
0.75
vs Weaker (3)
0.33
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Vushtrria) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Vushtrria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (30)
0.83
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.60
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Prishtina) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.0%
Under 0.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.0%
Under 1.5
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.5%
Under 2.5
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Prishtina over/under 0.5 2H
Over
46.0%
Under
54.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 1.5 2H
Over
14.1%
Under
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prishtina over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.2%
Under
96.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.0%
Under
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
17.8%
Under
82.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Vushtrria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
Under
96.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (24)
€8m
BAL (26)
€7m
PRI (24)
€6m
MAL (19)
€5m
LLA (28)
€5m
GJI (16)
€4m
DUK (20)
€3m
FER (14)
€3m
DS (8)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
Prishtina's squad is €6m more valuable than Vushtrria's (€6m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PRI (10)
€4m
DRI (8)
€3m
BAL (7)
€3m
LLA (9)
€2m
GJI (6)
€2m
MAL (6)
€2m
DUK (7)
€2m
FER (7)
€1m
DS (5)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Prishtina's attack is €4m more valuable than Vushtrria's (€4m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAL (8)
€2m
DRI (5)
€2m
MAL (4)
€1m
LLA (7)
€1m
GJI (3)
€1m
PRI (3)
€1m
DUK (5)
€1m
FER (2)
€0m
DS (1)
€0m
VUS (0)
€0m
Prishtina and Vushtrria have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DRI (11)
€3m
PRI (11)
€2m
BAL (11)
€2m
MAL (9)
€2m
LLA (12)
€2m
GJI (7)
€2m
DUK (8)
€1m
FER (5)
€1m
VUS (3)
€0m
DS (2)
€0m
Prishtina's defence is €2m more valuable than Vushtrria's (€2m vs €0m).
Kosovo: Superliga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Superliga stats & trends →
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Malisheva
Gjilani
Drita
Ballkani
Dukagjini
Drenica Skënderaj
Feronikeli
Llapi