Probiy Horodenka vs Chernihiv Result & Analysis

Probiy Horodenka, coming off a defeat to Metal Kharkiv, host Chernihiv in a tightly contested match. The home side has struggled to find consistency, conceding an average of 1.46 goals per game at home against similar opponents, while scoring 1.08 goals. Chernihiv, meanwhile, has been decent on the road, conceding 0.78 goals per game against similar opponents, but also struggling to score, averaging 0.67 goals per game.

The model predicts a low-scoring match, with a 28% chance of exactly 2 goals and a 2.2 expected total goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a 14.8% probability. The model's selection is Under 3.5, with an 82.9% chance of occurring.

Probiy Horodenka are favourite to win, with a 37% chance of victory, but Chernihiv's away win percentage is still respectable at 31%. The draw percentage is 32%. The model's pick is the home win, with Probiy Horodenka's home scoring and conceding against similar opponents making them the more likely victor. The model's selection is Under 3.5, with a high probability of occurring.

The draw between Probiy Horodenka and Chernihiv extends the home team's winless streak at home. However, the more surprising aspect of this match is that the home team, Probiy Horodenka, was the pre-match favourite, with a 37% chance of winning, but ultimately failed to come out on top. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's selection of Home win had a pre-match probability of 37%.

Meanwhile, the model's suggested pick, Under 3.5, hit with a probability of 82.9%. Another suggested pick, Chernihiv to win, missed with a probability of 31%. The final score of 1-1 resulted in a draw, which was the actual result of the match.