The contest between Probiy Horodenka and Inhulets is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 32%, a draw at 31%, and the away side at 37%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.6% chance. Probiy’s home form shows they average 0.8 goals scored and concede 1.8 against stronger opposition, while Inhulets, playing away, average 1.5 scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 with an 80.3% probability, and the edge is noted. The recent form tells a story: Probiy is coming off a 0-3 loss, whereas Inhulets has endured two straight defeats but managed a 1-2 win away. All three match-result probabilities are stated, and the single most likely scoreline is highlighted. The preview remains neutral, focusing on the balanced nature of the match and the statistical cues that shape the model’s pick.
Results analysis
The upset came as Probiy Horodenka and Inhulets finished 2-2, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s pick of an Away win - wrong. The model had given the away side a 37% chance of victory, but the match ended in a stalemate. The only other selection, Under 3.5, missed with an 80.3% probability. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, confirming the draw. Both teams were in rough form: Probiy Horodenka came off a defeat, while Inhulets had just endured two straight losses. The model’s prediction proved incorrect, and the Under 3.5 selection also failed to materialise.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Probiy Horodenka win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inhulets win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Probiy Horodenka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.23
1.13
1.40
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
1.90
0.80
1.80
1.20
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.90
1.30
1.20
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.07
1.60
1.27
1.13
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.17
1.67
1.42
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.75
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
6.1%
Probiy Horodenka goals ↓
Inhulets goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
11%
7.2%
2.9%
0.8%
1
9.8%
15%
7.9%
3.1%
0.9%
2
6.1%
7.3%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.2%
2.7%
1.6%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.6%
0.7%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Probiy Horodenka goals (down), columns = Inhulets goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Oleksandria
1.96
Polissya II
1.79
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.77
SK Poltava
1.61
Inhulets
1.53
Kulykiv
1.38
Metal Kharkiv
1.23
UCSA
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.20
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.17
Nyva Ternopil
1.17
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.04
Chernihiv
1.03
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.92
Probiy Horodenka is 0.33 points worse than Inhulets in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.53).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Oleksandria
1.62
Polissya II
1.48
Inhulets
1.37
SK Poltava
1.33
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.23
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.20
Kulykiv
1.14
Prykarpattia
1.03
Metal Kharkiv
1.03
Yarud Mariupol'
1.03
Chernihiv
1.00
UCSA
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.97
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.86
Nyva Ternopil
0.83
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.76
Probiy Horodenka is 0.40 goals worse than Inhulets in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Oleksandria
0.80
Polissya II
0.88
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.93
SK Poltava
0.98
Inhulets
1.07
Yarud Mariupol'
1.07
Nyva Ternopil
1.07
Prykarpattia
1.14
Kulykiv
1.14
Metal Kharkiv
1.17
Chernihiv
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27
UCSA
1.33
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.51
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.71
Probiy Horodenka is 0.17 goals worse than Inhulets in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Probiy Horodenka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.47
0.40
0.73
0.53
0.20
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
0.60
0.20
1.00
0.80
0.20
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.73
0.67
0.40
0.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.46
0.83
0.67
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Probiy Horodenka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.73
0.67
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.30
0.60
0.80
0.40
1.80
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.50
0.80
0.60
0.20
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Inhulets
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.87
0.60
0.73
0.60
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.71
0.83
0.75
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.25
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →