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Probiy Horodenka vs Inhulets Result & Analysis

Date: 26/07/2026
Time: 11:00
Final 2-2
Probiy Horodenka
Probiy Horodenka
Vs
32%
31%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Inhulets
Inhulets
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

The contest between Probiy Horodenka and Inhulets is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 32%, a draw at 31%, and the away side at 37%. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 14.6% chance. Probiy’s home form shows they average 0.8 goals scored and concede 1.8 against stronger opposition, while Inhulets, playing away, average 1.5 scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker teams. The model’s selection includes Under 3.5 with an 80.3% probability, and the edge is noted. The recent form tells a story: Probiy is coming off a 0-3 loss, whereas Inhulets has endured two straight defeats but managed a 1-2 win away. All three match-result probabilities are stated, and the single most likely scoreline is highlighted. The preview remains neutral, focusing on the balanced nature of the match and the statistical cues that shape the model’s pick.

Results analysis

The upset came as Probiy Horodenka and Inhulets finished 2-2, a draw that left the pre-match favourite - the model’s pick of an Away win - wrong. The model had given the away side a 37% chance of victory, but the match ended in a stalemate. The only other selection, Under 3.5, missed with an 80.3% probability. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result, confirming the draw. Both teams were in rough form: Probiy Horodenka came off a defeat, while Inhulets had just endured two straight losses. The model’s prediction proved incorrect, and the Under 3.5 selection also failed to materialise.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Probiy Horodenka win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Inhulets win✗ Miss
36.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W20W10W01L31W13L10W00D10W03LH·POD03/04A·VOR08/04H·UCS12/04A·CHO18/04H·MET25/04A·INH03/05H·AHR10/05A·YAR17/05A·VIK23/05H·PRY01/06
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.231.131.400.801.07
vs Stronger (10)1.001.900.801.801.202.00
vs Similar (20)0.950.901.301.200.600.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InhuletsInhulets

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L02L00D11D01L31W22D00D21W13LH·UCS04/04A·CHO08/04H·MET12/04A·YAR19/04A·AHR26/04H·PRO03/05A·VIK10/05H·PRY16/05A·CHE23/05H·LIV01/06
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.071.601.271.130.87
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (24)1.381.171.671.421.080.92
vs Weaker (4)1.750.752.001.001.500.50
Clean sheet %37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
47.6%
No
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%
0-0
11.5%
0-1
10.8%
1-0
9.8%
1-2
7.9%
2-1
7.3%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
6.1%
Probiy Horodenka goals ↓
Inhulets goals →
01234
012%11%7.2%2.9%0.8%
19.8%15%7.9%3.1%0.9%
26.1%7.3%4.3%1.7%0.5%
32.2%2.7%1.6%0.6%0.2%
40.6%0.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Probiy Horodenka goals (down), columns = Inhulets goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Oleksandria
1.96
Polissya II
1.79
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.77
SK Poltava
1.61
Inhulets
1.53
Kulykiv
1.38
Metal Kharkiv
1.23
UCSA
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.20
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.17
Nyva Ternopil
1.17
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.04
Chernihiv
1.03
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.92
Probiy Horodenka is 0.33 points worse than Inhulets in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 1.53).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Oleksandria
1.62
Polissya II
1.48
Inhulets
1.37
SK Poltava
1.33
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.23
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.20
Kulykiv
1.14
Prykarpattia
1.03
Metal Kharkiv
1.03
Yarud Mariupol'
1.03
Chernihiv
1.00
UCSA
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.97
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.86
Nyva Ternopil
0.83
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.76
Probiy Horodenka is 0.40 goals worse than Inhulets in terms of goals scored per game (0.97 vs 1.37).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Oleksandria
0.80
Polissya II
0.88
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
0.93
SK Poltava
0.98
Inhulets
1.07
Yarud Mariupol'
1.07
Nyva Ternopil
1.07
Prykarpattia
1.14
Kulykiv
1.14
Metal Kharkiv
1.17
Chernihiv
1.20
Probiy Horodenka
1.23
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.27
UCSA
1.33
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.51
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.71
Probiy Horodenka is 0.17 goals worse than Inhulets in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.07).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W10W00D00D21W10W00D00D10W02LH·POD03/04A·VOR08/04H·UCS12/04A·CHO18/04H·MET25/04A·INH03/05H·AHR10/05A·YAR17/05A·VIK23/05H·PRY01/06
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.470.400.730.530.20
vs Stronger (10)0.500.600.201.000.800.20
vs Similar (20)0.450.400.500.600.400.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InhuletsInhulets

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L00D00D00D00D01L00D00D20W01LH·UCS04/04A·CHO08/04H·MET12/04A·YAR19/04A·AHR26/04H·PRO03/05A·VIK10/05H·PRY16/05A·CHE23/05H·LIV01/06
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.730.670.400.27
vs Stronger (2)0.000.500.000.000.001.00
vs Similar (24)0.540.460.830.670.250.25
vs Weaker (4)1.000.500.501.001.500.00
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W10W10W01L10W03L10W00D00D01LH·POD03/04A·VOR08/04H·UCS12/04A·CHO18/04H·MET25/04A·INH03/05H·AHR10/05A·YAR17/05A·VIK23/05H·PRY01/06
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.770.730.670.270.87
vs Stronger (10)0.501.300.600.800.401.80
vs Similar (20)0.500.500.800.600.200.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Inhulets) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

InhuletsInhulets

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L00D11D01L30W22D00D01L12LH·UCS04/04A·CHO08/04H·MET12/04A·YAR19/04A·AHR26/04H·PRO03/05A·VIK10/05H·PRY16/05A·CHE23/05H·LIV01/06
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.800.600.870.600.730.60
vs Stronger (2)0.500.000.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (24)0.830.710.830.750.830.67
vs Weaker (4)0.750.251.500.000.000.50
Clean sheet %57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Inhulets over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.3%-------✗ Miss

💰 13. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (25)
€5m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (7)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (7)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SP (11)
€2m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 14. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
PH wins
0
Draws
2
INH wins

Head-to-head

Probiy Horodenka vs Inhulets · H/A from PH
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/26AInhulets Vs PH3-1
12/10/25HPH Vs Inhulets0-1

Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/26HPH Vs Prykarpattia0-3
23/05/26AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs PH0-1
17/05/26AYarud Mariupol' Vs PH0-0
10/05/26HPH Vs Ahrobiznes Volochysk1-0
03/05/26AInhulets Vs PH3-1
25/04/26HPH Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya3-1
18/04/26AChornomorets Vs PH1-0
12/04/26HPH Vs UCSA1-0
08/04/26AVorskla Poltava Vs PH0-2
03/04/26HPH Vs Podillya Khmelnytskyi3-0

InhuletsInhulets

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/06/26HINH Vs Livyi Bereh1-3
23/05/26AChernihiv Vs INH1-2
16/05/26HINH Vs Prykarpattia0-0
10/05/26AViktoriya Mykolaivka Vs INH2-2
03/05/26HINH Vs Probiy Horodenka3-1
26/04/26AAhrobiznes Volochysk Vs INH1-0
19/04/26AYarud Mariupol' Vs INH1-1
12/04/26HINH Vs Metalurh Zaporizhya0-0
08/04/26AChornomorets Vs INH2-0
04/04/26HINH Vs UCSA0-2

📊 15. Overall Statistics

Probiy Horodenka
Probiy Horodenka
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDWL1.20
HomeWWWWL1.27
AwayWLLDW1.13
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %33%40%27%
AVG goals2.202.531.87
Over 1.5 %60%67%53%
Over 2.5 %40%47%33%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored0.971.130.80
Conceded1.231.401.07
BTTS33%33%33%
Clean Sheet40%33%47%
Corners---
Cards---
Inhulets
Inhulets
Ukraine: Persha Liga
Recent: 2 Wins / 4 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDDWL1.30
HomeLDWDL1.27
AwayLDLDW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals2.382.332.45
Over 1.5 %64%63%65%
Over 2.5 %42%43%40%
Over 3.5 %24%27%20%
Scored1.121.101.15
Conceded1.261.231.30
BTTS38%37%40%
Clean Sheet36%37%35%
Corners7.887.88-
Cards2.382.38-

🏆 16. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Viktoriya MykolaivkaViktoriya Mykolaivka412
100%
3.0
61+5
1.8
50%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.50.2
-
2SK PoltavaSK Poltava48
50%
2.0
71+6
2.0
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1221.80.2
-
3OleksandriaOleksandria48
50%
2.0
105+5
3.8
100%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.51.2
-
4KulykivKulykiv47
50%
1.8
65+1
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
5Ahrobiznes VolochyskAhrobiznes Volochysk47
50%
1.8
44+0
2.0
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
6UCSAUCSA46
25%
1.5
76+1
3.2
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.5
-
7Metal KharkivMetal Kharkiv46
50%
1.5
55+0
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
8Nyva TernopilNyva Ternopil45
25%
1.2
44+0
2.0
75%
25%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
9PrykarpattiaPrykarpattia44
25%
1.0
65+1
2.8
75%
75%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
10ChernihivChernihiv44
0%
1.0
55+0
2.5
100%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
11InhuletsInhulets44
25%
1.0
58-3
3.2
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
12Lokomotiv KyivLokomotiv Kyiv43
0%
0.8
34-1
1.8
50%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.0
-
13Yarud MariupolYarud Mariupol'43
25%
0.8
37-4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
14Kolos Kovalivka IIKolos Kovalivka II43
25%
0.8
37-4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.81.8
-
15Polissya IIPolissya II42
0%
0.5
57-2
3.0
75%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
-
16Probiy HorodenkaProbiy Horodenka42
0%
0.5
49-5
3.2
100%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →

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