Probiy Horodenka are favoured to win, with a 51% chance of taking the match home, 27% for a draw and 21% for Lokomotiv Kyiv to triumph. The model expects an average of 2.5 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Horodenka’s home form shows they average 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded against stronger opposition, while Lokomotiv Kyiv, playing away against a stronger side, also averages 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (95.5%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.9%), Home +2 handicap (92.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (92.1%) and Under 4.5 (88.5%). The home side is coming off a 0-3 defeat to Prykarpattia, while Lokomotiv Kyiv ended their last game with a 0-0 draw against Ahrobiznes Volochysk.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Probiy Horodenka win
46.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Probiy Horodenka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.30
1.00
1.40
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.31
0.86
1.29
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.71
1.29
1.12
1.50
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Kyiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.40
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.40
0.67
1.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
72.9%
Under 1.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.1%
Under 2.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
24.7%
Under 3.5
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.0%
No
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
1-0
10.8%
0-0
9.3%
2-1
9.2%
2-0
9.0%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.3%
2-2
4.7%
Probiy Horodenka goals ↓
Lokomotiv Kyiv goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.3%
7.0%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11%
14%
6.3%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.0%
9.2%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
3
4.5%
4.6%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.7%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Probiy Horodenka goals (down), columns = Lokomotiv Kyiv goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Probiy Horodenka is 0.20 points worse than Lokomotiv Kyiv in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Probiy Horodenka and Lokomotiv Kyiv are level in goals scored per game (both 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Probiy Horodenka is 1.00 goals worse than Lokomotiv Kyiv in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 1.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Probiy Horodenka or Draw
75.4%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Probiy Horodenka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka or Lokomotiv Kyiv
71.6%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Probiy Horodenka + Lokomotiv Kyiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lokomotiv Kyiv
53.1%
Avg Implied -
47%
28%
25%
covers Draw + Lokomotiv Kyiv
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 0.5
Over
64.1%
Under
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 1.5
Over
27.3%
Under
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 2.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Probiy Horodenka, so a minus line means Probiy Horodenka give that many goals of a start and Lokomotiv Kyiv receive them. At -1, Probiy Horodenka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Probiy Horodenka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka -2
9.6%
Draw -2
14.6%
Lokomotiv Kyiv +2
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka -1
24.2%
Draw -1
22.7%
Lokomotiv Kyiv +1
53.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka +1
75.4%
Draw +1
15.1%
Lokomotiv Kyiv -1
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka +2
90.5%
Draw +2
6.8%
Lokomotiv Kyiv -2
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Probiy Horodenka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.27
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.31
0.14
0.43
0.83
0.17
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.71
0.38
0.62
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Kyiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
80% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Probiy Horodenka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.73
0.87
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.00
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.59
0.75
0.88
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Kyiv) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
0.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
1.00
0.33
1.67
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Kyiv over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka's squad is €1m more valuable than Lokomotiv Kyiv's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka and Lokomotiv Kyiv have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka and Lokomotiv Kyiv have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka and Lokomotiv Kyiv have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Chernihiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II