The model points to an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 58% chance for SK Poltava and 17% for Probiy Horodenka, while a draw sits at 25%. The expected total goals hover around 2.6, and the single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 12.1% probability. In the match-day context, Probiy Horodenka has struggled, having lost two of their last five games and conceding three in a 0-3 defeat to Viktoriya Mykolaivka, yet they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similarly ranked opponents at home. SK Poltava, meanwhile, remains unbeaten in five outings, winning three and drawing two, and averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on the road against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), Home under 2.5 goals (94.5%), Away +2 handicap (94.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (89.8%), and Under 4.5 (87.6%).
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Probiy Horodenka win
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava win
58.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Probiy Horodenka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.30
1.00
1.40
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.31
0.86
1.29
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.71
1.29
1.12
1.50
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SK Poltava
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
2.10
0.73
2.27
1.00
1.93
vs Stronger (17)
0.65
2.82
0.75
3.12
0.56
2.56
vs Similar (12)
1.17
1.25
0.71
1.29
1.80
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
0-1
11.9%
0-2
11.4%
1-2
9.7%
0-0
8.4%
0-3
6.7%
1-3
5.7%
1-0
5.1%
Probiy Horodenka goals ↓
SK Poltava goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.4%
12%
11%
6.7%
3.0%
1
5.1%
12%
9.7%
5.7%
2.5%
2
2.6%
4.7%
4.1%
2.4%
1.1%
3
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Probiy Horodenka goals (down), columns = SK Poltava goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
SK Poltava
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.33
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.00
Chernihiv
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.50
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Probiy Horodenka is 1.60 points worse than SK Poltava in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
UCSA
1.60
SK Poltava
1.33
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Inhulets
1.17
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.67
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.67
Probiy Horodenka is 0.53 goals worse than SK Poltava in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.17
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.33
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.33
Inhulets
1.50
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Probiy Horodenka is 2.23 goals worse than SK Poltava in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 0.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Probiy Horodenka or Draw
42.0%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Probiy Horodenka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka or SK Poltava
74.6%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Probiy Horodenka + SK Poltava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or SK Poltava
83.4%
Avg Implied -
17%
25%
58%
covers Draw + SK Poltava
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5
Over
57.2%
Under
42.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5
Over
20.8%
Under
79.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5
Over
5.5%
Under
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 1.5
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 2.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Probiy Horodenka, so a minus line means Probiy Horodenka give that many goals of a start and SK Poltava receive them. At -1, Probiy Horodenka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Probiy Horodenka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka -2
1.3%
Draw -2
4.2%
SK Poltava +2
94.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka -1
5.5%
Draw -1
11.1%
SK Poltava +1
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka +1
42.0%
Draw +1
24.3%
SK Poltava -1
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka +2
66.3%
Draw +2
18.3%
SK Poltava -2
15.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Probiy Horodenka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.27
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.31
0.14
0.43
0.83
0.17
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.71
0.38
0.62
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SK Poltava
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.33
1.07
0.47
0.80
vs Stronger (17)
0.41
1.41
0.50
1.62
0.33
1.22
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.33
0.14
0.43
0.80
0.20
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Probiy Horodenka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.73
0.87
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.00
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.59
0.75
0.88
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (SK Poltava) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
SK Poltava
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.17
0.40
1.20
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (17)
0.24
1.41
0.25
1.50
0.22
1.33
vs Similar (12)
0.75
0.92
0.57
0.86
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
SK Poltava over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
79.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
SK Poltava · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Valerii Sad40%
Yevgen Misyura14%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Oleh Veremiienko11%
Maksym Marusych9%
Igor Kotsyumaka8%
Denys Galenkov7%
Volodymyr Odariuk6%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Dmytro Plakhtyr0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Arsentiy Doroshenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oleh Veremiienko44%
Vladyslav Danylenko42%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov33%
Illia Ukhan29%
Denys Galenkov21%
Dmytro Plakhtyr21%
Andriy Savenkov18%
Igor Kotsyumaka17%
Arsentiy Doroshenko15%
Bohdan Kobzar14%
Mykyta Minchev14%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Mykola Buzhyn9%
Mykyta Kononov8%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Volodymyr Odariuk0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Valerii Sad0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Valerii Sad20%
Volodymyr Odariuk12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Arsentiy Doroshenko8%
Denys Galenkov7%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Danyil Sukhoruchko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleh Veremiienko0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Dmytro Plakhtyr0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Igor Kotsyumaka0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Valerii Sad20%
Danyil Sukhoruchko12%
Maksym Marusych9%
Dmytro Plakhtyr7%
Yevgen Misyura7%
Volodymyr Odariuk6%
Yevhen Opanasenko0%
Valeriy Voskonyan0%
Oleh Veremiienko0%
Oleksandr Pyatov0%
Mykola Buzhyn0%
Svyatoslav Shapovalov0%
Denys Galenkov0%
Oleksii Khakhliov0%
Vladyslav Danylenko0%
Bohdan Kobzar0%
Yevgen Streltsov0%
Illia Ukhan0%
Andriy Savenkov0%
Vadym Pidlepych0%
Oleksandr Vivdych0%
Mykyta Kononov0%
Artem Onishchenko0%
Mykyta Minchev0%
Arsentiy Doroshenko0%
Alexander Vivdych0%
Igor Kotsyumaka0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka's squad is €2m less valuable than SK Poltava's (€1m vs €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka and SK Poltava have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka's defence is €1m less valuable than SK Poltava's (€0m vs €2m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Inhulets
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Kolos Kovalivka II
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Polissya II