The model favours an away win, with a 45% chance for Yarud Mariupol' to come out on top, a 28% chance of a draw and a 27% chance of a Probiy Horodenka victory. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Home form shows Probiy Horodenka scoring an average of 1.12 goals and conceding 1.5 against similarly-matched opponents, while Yarud Mariupol' averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Under 6.5 (98.3%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.3%), Under 5.5 (95.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.5%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.8%), Away +2 handicap (89.0%) and Under 4.5 (87.6%). Recent form hints at a shaky start for Probiy Horodenka after two straight defeats, while Yarud Mariupol' has begun with a two-game winning streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Probiy Horodenka win
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' win
44.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Probiy Horodenka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.30
1.00
1.40
0.73
1.20
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.31
0.86
1.29
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.71
1.29
1.12
1.50
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.19
1.00
1.14
1.29
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.71
1.25
1.25
0.67
2.33
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.95
1.00
0.91
1.10
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
53.3%
No
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
9.8%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.6%
0-2
8.2%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
6.8%
2-2
5.1%
Probiy Horodenka goals ↓
Yarud Mariupol' goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
9.8%
8.2%
4.1%
1.5%
1
7.0%
13%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.6%
6.8%
5.1%
2.5%
0.9%
3
1.7%
2.5%
1.9%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Probiy Horodenka goals (down), columns = Yarud Mariupol' goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
SK Poltava
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Chernihiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.60
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Probiy Horodenka is 0.80 points worse than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of average points per game (0.40 vs 1.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
SK Poltava
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Inhulets
1.40
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.60
Probiy Horodenka is 0.40 goals worse than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals scored per game (0.80 vs 1.20).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.40
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.60
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Inhulets
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Probiy Horodenka is 0.80 goals worse than Yarud Mariupol' in terms of goals conceded per game (2.40 vs 1.60).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Probiy Horodenka or Draw
55.2%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers Probiy Horodenka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka or Yarud Mariupol'
71.8%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers Probiy Horodenka + Yarud Mariupol'
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Yarud Mariupol'
73.0%
Avg Implied -
27%
28%
45%
covers Draw + Yarud Mariupol'
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5
Over
67.1%
Under
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5
Over
30.6%
Under
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 3.5
Over
2.7%
Under
97.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5
Over
77.6%
Under
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5
Over
44.0%
Under
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5
Over
19.0%
Under
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 3.5
Over
6.5%
Under
93.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Probiy Horodenka, so a minus line means Probiy Horodenka give that many goals of a start and Yarud Mariupol' receive them. At -1, Probiy Horodenka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Probiy Horodenka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka -2
3.3%
Draw -2
7.7%
Yarud Mariupol' +2
89.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka -1
11.0%
Draw -1
16.0%
Yarud Mariupol' +1
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka +1
55.2%
Draw +1
21.9%
Yarud Mariupol' -1
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Probiy Horodenka)
Probiy Horodenka +2
77.1%
Draw +2
13.9%
Yarud Mariupol' -2
9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Probiy Horodenka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.53
0.27
0.53
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.31
0.14
0.43
0.83
0.17
vs Similar (17)
0.29
0.71
0.38
0.62
0.22
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.44
0.56
0.21
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.14
0.71
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.57
0.45
0.55
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.0%
Under 0.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
32.3%
Under 1.5
67.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
11.1%
Under 2.5
88.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
9.9%
Under
90.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.6%
Under
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Probiy Horodenka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.73
0.87
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.00
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.59
0.75
0.88
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Yarud Mariupol') is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Yarud Mariupol'
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.75
0.44
0.93
0.64
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.38
0.55
0.36
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
0.50
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.9%
Under 0.5
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
43.0%
Under 1.5
57.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.6%
Under 2.5
83.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.0%
Under
87.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
Under
97.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 0.5 2H
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 1.5 2H
Over
18.2%
Under
81.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Yarud Mariupol' over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.1%
Under
94.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka's squad is €2m less valuable than Yarud Mariupol''s (€1m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka's midfield is €1m less valuable than Yarud Mariupol''s (€0m vs €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Probiy Horodenka and Yarud Mariupol' have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Prykarpattia
Metal Kharkiv
Inhulets
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Kolos Kovalivka II
Polissya II