Prykarpattia's recent form is concerning, having just come off a defeat to Kulykiv, with a last five match record of LDLWD. They'll be looking to bounce back at home against Probiy Horodenka. The defensive numbers are telling, with Prykarpattia conceding an average of 1 goal per match at home against similar opponents.
The model is predicting a low-scoring match, with an expected total of 2 goals and a most likely score of 0-0 at 15.1%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 14.6%.
Prykarpattia's home scoring average is 0.83 goals per match, while they concede 1 goal on average. Probiy Horodenka, meanwhile, scores 0.6 goals per match when away to similar opponents and concedes 0.9 goals.
The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 41%. The draw is also a possibility, with a 33% chance. Probiy Horodenka's away win is the least likely outcome, with a 26% chance. The model's selection is the Under 3.5 goals, with a probability of 86%.
Results analysis
Prykarpattia's win extends their run, following a 3-0 victory over Probiy Horodenka. The final score was a convincing 3-0, aligning with the actual result of a home win. The model correctly predicted the favourite, Home win, which held a pre-match probability of 41%. The model's selection was correct.
The Under 3.5 pick, with a probability of 86%, hit, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a probability of 28%. The most likely scores included a 0-0 draw, a 1-1 draw, and a 1-0 home win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Prykarpattia win✓ Hit
41.0%
Avg Implied 46.4% · @ 1.95
Edge
-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.07
William Hil
2.05
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Marathonbet
2.01
Draw✗ Miss
33.2%
Avg Implied 28.6% · @ 3.16
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.30
1xBet
3.27
Superbet
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Dafabet
3.20
Probiy Horodenka win✗ Miss
25.8%
Avg Implied 24.9% · @ 3.63
Edge
+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
4.15
1xBet
3.93
Betfair
3.90
10Bet
3.75
Bet365
3.60
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Prykarpattia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.27
0.88
1.06
1.07
1.50
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.80
0.50
1.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
1.00
1.13
0.85
1.00
1.20
1.30
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Probiy Horodenka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.20
1.07
1.33
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
1.08
1.31
0.86
1.29
1.33
1.33
vs Similar (17)
0.82
1.12
1.25
1.38
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.3%
@ 1.32-8.3%
Under 1.5
39.7%
@ 2.89+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Pinnacle
2.92
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.88
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
31.9%
@ 2.04-13.0%
Under 2.5
68.1%
@ 1.67+13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
10Bet
2.00
Under
Bet365
1.70
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.66
Betano
1.65
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.0%
@ 3.50-11.9%
Under 3.5
86.0%
@ 1.22+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.50
1xBet
3.50
Under
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.1%
@ 1.83-10.0%
No
59.9%
@ 1.83+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.82
William Hil
1.80
No
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.1%@ 7.80+9.7%
1-1
14.6%@ 5.65+7.2%
1-0
14.3%@ 6.17+7.6%
0-1
10.3%@ 9.18+5.8%
2-0
8.9%@ 8.12+3.8%
2-1
7.5%@ 8.00+2.3%
1-2
5.6%@ 11.71+2.0%
0-2
4.9%@ 17.29+2.5%
Prykarpattia goals ↓
Probiy Horodenka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
10%
4.9%
1.4%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.6%
1.6%
0.3%
2
8.9%
7.5%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
3
3.4%
2.9%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
4
1.0%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Prykarpattia goals (down), columns = Probiy Horodenka goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
3.00
Oleksandria
2.20
Kulykiv
2.00
SK Poltava
2.00
Prykarpattia
1.40
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.40
Metal Kharkiv
1.40
Inhulets
1.33
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Nyva Ternopil
1.20
UCSA
1.20
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.00
Chernihiv
0.80
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.50
Polissya II
0.40
Probiy Horodenka
0.40
Prykarpattia is 1.00 points better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of average points per game (1.40 vs 0.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kulykiv
2.20
Oleksandria
2.20
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
1.80
Prykarpattia
1.60
UCSA
1.60
SK Poltava
1.33
Yarud Mariupol'
1.20
Polissya II
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Inhulets
1.17
Chernihiv
1.00
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Probiy Horodenka
0.80
Kolos Kovalivka II
0.67
Lokomotiv Kyiv
0.67
Prykarpattia is 0.80 goals better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 0.80).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
SK Poltava
0.17
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
0.20
Oleksandria
1.00
Nyva Ternopil
1.00
Chernihiv
1.20
Prykarpattia
1.20
Kulykiv
1.20
Metal Kharkiv
1.20
Kolos Kovalivka II
1.33
Lokomotiv Kyiv
1.33
Inhulets
1.50
Yarud Mariupol'
1.60
UCSA
1.60
Polissya II
1.80
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
1.80
Probiy Horodenka
2.40
Prykarpattia is 1.20 goals better than Probiy Horodenka in terms of goals conceded per game (1.20 vs 2.40).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Prykarpattia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.63
0.31
0.69
0.50
0.57
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.60
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.43
0.61
0.23
0.62
0.70
0.60
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Probiy Horodenka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.50
0.27
0.60
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.31
0.14
0.43
0.83
0.17
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.65
0.38
0.75
0.33
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Prykarpattia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Prykarpattia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.63
0.56
0.38
0.57
0.93
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.52
0.62
0.38
0.50
0.70
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Probiy Horodenka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Probiy Horodenka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
1.00
0.71
0.86
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.47
0.88
0.62
0.11
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Prykarpattia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Prykarpattia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Prykarpattia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Probiy Horodenka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.0%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
-
+11.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (25)
€8m
SP (22)
€4m
YM (21)
€3m
NT (23)
€3m
MK (17)
€3m
UCS (23)
€2m
AV (18)
€2m
CHE (22)
€2m
VM (19)
€2m
PRY (18)
€2m
PH (20)
€1m
INH (15)
€1m
PI (5)
€1m
KKI (3)
€0m
LK (7)
€0m
Prykarpattia and Probiy Horodenka have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (10)
€3m
YM (6)
€1m
SP (5)
€1m
UCS (8)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
VM (5)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
PH (11)
€1m
PI (2)
€0m
MK (4)
€0m
AV (3)
€0m
CHE (4)
€0m
INH (6)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (3)
€0m
Prykarpattia and Probiy Horodenka have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
YM (7)
€1m
OLE (4)
€1m
CHE (8)
€1m
SP (7)
€1m
NT (5)
€1m
VM (8)
€1m
AV (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
MK (5)
€1m
UCS (5)
€1m
PI (1)
€0m
PH (3)
€0m
INH (5)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
LK (0)
€0m
Prykarpattia and Probiy Horodenka have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OLE (11)
€3m
SP (10)
€2m
MK (8)
€2m
AV (11)
€1m
NT (9)
€1m
UCS (10)
€1m
CHE (10)
€1m
INH (4)
€1m
PRY (6)
€1m
YM (8)
€1m
VM (6)
€1m
PH (6)
€0m
PI (2)
€0m
LK (4)
€0m
KKI (1)
€0m
Prykarpattia and Probiy Horodenka have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Ukraine: Persha Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ukraine: Persha Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Viktoriya Mykolaivka
SK Poltava
Oleksandria
Kulykiv
Inhulets
Metal Kharkiv
Ahrobiznes Volochysk
UCSA
Nyva Ternopil
Yarud Mariupol'
Kolos Kovalivka II
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Polissya II