Puszcza Niepołomice are favoured to win, with a 55% chance of triumph, a 24% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of a Polonia Bytom victory. The model expects an average of three goals, yet the most likely total is two, a 24% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11.5% chance. Home form shows Puszcza averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Polonia, playing away, averages 1.69 goals scored and 2.23 conceded. Recent results hint at momentum: Puszcza come off a win, 2-0 over Podbeskidzie, whereas Polonia return from a 1-1 draw against Arka Gdynia. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Under 6.5 at 96.7%, Home +2 handicap at 92.0%, Under 5.5 at 91.8%, Away under 2.5 goals at 90.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 87.6%, and Home over 0.5 goals at 85.0%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice win
50.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom win
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
1.13
1.50
1.00
1.29
1.29
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.17
1.58
1.00
1.17
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.25
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.83
1.80
1.47
2.07
2.20
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
2.50
1.00
1.00
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.83
1.73
1.36
1.69
2.23
vs Weaker (4)
3.50
1.50
2.33
2.00
7.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Puszcza Niepołomice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
58.4%
No
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-0
8.3%
1-0
8.2%
1-2
6.4%
0-0
6.3%
3-1
5.8%
2-2
5.7%
Puszcza Niepołomice goals ↓
Polonia Bytom goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
5.0%
3.6%
1.4%
0.4%
1
8.2%
12%
6.4%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.3%
9.7%
5.7%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.9%
5.8%
3.4%
1.3%
0.4%
4
2.2%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Puszcza Niepołomice goals (down), columns = Polonia Bytom goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Odra Opole
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom are level in average points per game (both 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Puszcza Niepołomice is 1.17 goals worse than Polonia Bytom in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Puszcza Niepołomice is 1.33 goals better than Polonia Bytom in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Puszcza Niepołomice or Draw
76.2%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
24%
covers Puszcza Niepołomice + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice or Polonia Bytom
74.5%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
24%
covers Puszcza Niepołomice + Polonia Bytom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Polonia Bytom
49.3%
Avg Implied -
51%
25%
24%
covers Draw + Polonia Bytom
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 0.5
Over
83.2%
Under
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 1.5
Over
53.2%
Under
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 2.5
Over
26.5%
Under
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 3.5
Over
10.6%
Under
89.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5
Over
68.9%
Under
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5
Over
32.6%
Under
67.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Puszcza Niepołomice, so a minus line means Puszcza Niepołomice give that many goals of a start and Polonia Bytom receive them. At -1, Puszcza Niepołomice must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Puszcza Niepołomice win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Puszcza Niepołomice)
Puszcza Niepołomice -2
12.9%
Draw -2
15.8%
Polonia Bytom +2
71.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Puszcza Niepołomice)
Puszcza Niepołomice -1
28.7%
Draw -1
22.0%
Polonia Bytom +1
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Puszcza Niepołomice)
Puszcza Niepołomice +1
76.2%
Draw +1
14.0%
Polonia Bytom -1
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Puszcza Niepołomice)
Puszcza Niepołomice +2
90.2%
Draw +2
6.8%
Polonia Bytom -2
3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Puszcza Niepołomice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.70
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.86
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.67
0.50
0.42
0.58
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.25
0.67
0.33
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.00
0.40
0.93
0.87
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.67
1.09
0.36
0.69
0.92
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
0.50
1.00
0.67
4.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Puszcza Niepołomice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Puszcza Niepołomice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.43
1.00
0.44
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
0.50
1.08
0.58
0.58
0.42
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Bytom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Bytom
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.20
0.80
1.07
1.13
1.33
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.83
1.17
0.64
1.00
1.00
1.31
vs Weaker (4)
1.75
1.00
1.33
1.33
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Puszcza Niepołomice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Bytom over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
90.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
71.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Puszcza Niepołomice · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michalis Kosidis27%
German Barkovskiy20%
Antoni Klimek15%
Artur Crăciun14%
Jani Atanasov11%
Piotr Mroziński11%
Dawid Szymonowicz9%
Mateusz Cholewiak7%
Konrad Stępień7%
Łukasz Sołowiej6%
Roman Yakuba6%
Jakov Blagaić5%
Dawid Abramowicz4%
Jakub Serafin3%
Jin-hyun Lee0%
Mateusz Stępień0%
Mateusz Radecki0%
Michal Siplak0%
Artur Siemaszko0%
Hubert Tomalski0%
Georgy Zhukov0%
Ioan-Calin Revenco0%
Rok Kidrič0%
Michał Walski0%
Wojciech Hajda0%
Kewin Komar0%
Krystian Okoniewski0%
Jakub Stec0%
Michał Perchel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artur Siemaszko33%
Dawid Abramowicz29%
Artur Crăciun28%
German Barkovskiy27%
Jakub Stec25%
Jani Atanasov22%
Georgy Zhukov22%
Jakub Serafin22%
Dawid Szymonowicz22%
Wojciech Hajda21%
Łukasz Sołowiej19%
Konrad Stępień19%
Piotr Mroziński19%
Ioan-Calin Revenco18%
Roman Yakuba15%
Jakov Blagaić14%
Michal Siplak12%
Jin-hyun Lee11%
Mateusz Stępień10%
Michalis Kosidis10%
Antoni Klimek8%
Mateusz Cholewiak7%
Hubert Tomalski7%
Mateusz Radecki5%
Kewin Komar3%
Rok Kidrič0%
Michał Walski0%
Krystian Okoniewski0%
Michał Perchel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Konrad Stępień15%
German Barkovskiy13%
Jin-hyun Lee11%
Dawid Abramowicz11%
Jakub Serafin6%
Łukasz Sołowiej6%
Mateusz Stępień5%
Mateusz Cholewiak4%
Artur Crăciun3%
Michalis Kosidis3%
Jakov Blagaić0%
Mateusz Radecki0%
Michal Siplak0%
Artur Siemaszko0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Hubert Tomalski0%
Jani Atanasov0%
Georgy Zhukov0%
Ioan-Calin Revenco0%
Rok Kidrič0%
Michał Walski0%
Wojciech Hajda0%
Piotr Mroziński0%
Kewin Komar0%
Roman Yakuba0%
Antoni Klimek0%
Krystian Okoniewski0%
Jakub Stec0%
Michał Perchel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
German Barkovskiy13%
Jani Atanasov11%
Antoni Klimek8%
Piotr Mroziński7%
Jin-hyun Lee6%
Dawid Szymonowicz4%
Konrad Stępień4%
Michalis Kosidis3%
Jakub Serafin3%
Jakov Blagaić0%
Mateusz Stępień0%
Mateusz Cholewiak0%
Mateusz Radecki0%
Michal Siplak0%
Dawid Abramowicz0%
Łukasz Sołowiej0%
Artur Siemaszko0%
Hubert Tomalski0%
Artur Crăciun0%
Georgy Zhukov0%
Ioan-Calin Revenco0%
Rok Kidrič0%
Michał Walski0%
Wojciech Hajda0%
Kewin Komar0%
Roman Yakuba0%
Krystian Okoniewski0%
Jakub Stec0%
Michał Perchel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom have a similar squad value (both €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Bytom have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
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Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Polonia Warszawa
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów