The contest between Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Warszawa is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win but recognising both sides have a strong chance. The probabilities are 40% for a Puszcza victory, 27% for a draw, and 32% for Polonia to triumph. The expected goal tally sits at 2.8, with the most likely total being two goals, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 13% probability. Puszcza’s home form shows they average 1.42 goals scored and 0.92 conceded against similar opposition, while Polonia’s away record is 1.64 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. The model’s selection list includes “Over 1.5” with a 78.4% probability, noting a 78.4% edge. The match remains uncertain, with each side’s recent form hinting at potential swings.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Puszcza Niepołomice, was expected to win with a 40% probability, but the game ended 0-1 in favour of Polonia Warszawa, extending the home side’s 2-game winning run while the visitors returned from a defeat. The model’s call was wrong. The only other selection was Over 1.5 goals at 78.4%; it missed as the match produced only one goal. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 fell short, and the expected total of 2.8 goals was not reached. Overall, the prediction missed the outcome and the goal count, underscoring the volatility of this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice win✗ Miss
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa win✓ Hit
32.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Puszcza Niepołomice
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.10
1.43
1.00
1.31
1.19
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.38
1.08
1.42
0.92
1.36
1.21
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
3.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.37
1.36
1.21
1.56
1.50
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
1.54
1.50
1.42
1.33
1.64
1.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Puszcza Niepołomice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.5%
Under 2.5
46.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.2%
Under 3.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
58.1%
No
41.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.0%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
7.8%
0-0
7.2%
0-1 ✓
6.7%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.8%
Puszcza Niepołomice goals ↓
Polonia Warszawa goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
6.7%
5.2%
2.3%
0.8%
1
7.8%
13%
7.8%
3.4%
1.1%
2
6.7%
8.8%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.3%
4.4%
2.9%
1.3%
0.4%
4
1.2%
1.6%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Puszcza Niepołomice goals (down), columns = Polonia Warszawa goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Miedz Legnica
2.17
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
2.00
ŁKS Łódź
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Warta Poznań
1.50
Odra Opole
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.33
Stal Mielec
1.33
Nieciecza
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.00
Unia Skierniewice
1.00
Polonia Bytom
1.00
Podbeskidzie
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.83
Puszcza Niepołomice is 0.67 points worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Polonia Bytom
2.00
Warta Poznań
1.83
Stal Mielec
1.83
Polonia Warszawa
1.67
Miedz Legnica
1.67
Chrobry Głogów
1.67
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
1.67
ŁKS Łódź
1.67
Arka Gdynia
1.50
Nieciecza
1.50
Podbeskidzie
1.33
Pogoń Siedlce
1.17
Lechia Gdansk
1.17
Odra Opole
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
0.83
Unia Skierniewice
0.83
Stal Rzeszów
0.67
Ruch Chorzów
0.50
Puszcza Niepołomice is 0.83 goals worse than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals scored per game (0.83 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Miedz Legnica
0.50
Arka Gdynia
0.83
Chrobry Głogów
0.83
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
0.83
ŁKS Łódź
0.83
Odra Opole
1.00
Pogoń Siedlce
1.00
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.17
Ruch Chorzów
1.17
Polonia Warszawa
1.33
Unia Skierniewice
1.50
Warta Poznań
1.67
Podbeskidzie
1.67
Nieciecza
1.67
Lechia Gdansk
1.83
Stal Rzeszów
2.00
Stal Mielec
2.17
Polonia Bytom
2.50
Puszcza Niepołomice is 0.17 goals better than Polonia Warszawa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Puszcza Niepołomice
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.57
0.36
0.50
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.79
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.60
0.36
0.57
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.62
0.33
0.58
0.79
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Puszcza Niepołomice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Puszcza Niepołomice
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
1.07
0.50
0.62
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
0.58
1.08
0.58
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Polonia Warszawa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Polonia Warszawa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
1.00
0.64
0.81
0.88
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (26)
0.96
0.88
1.08
0.75
0.86
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Puszcza Niepołomice) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Puszcza Niepołomice over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Polonia Warszawa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Puszcza Niepołomice · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Michalis Kosidis27%
German Barkovskiy20%
Antoni Klimek15%
Artur Crăciun14%
Jani Atanasov11%
Piotr Mroziński11%
Dawid Szymonowicz9%
Mateusz Cholewiak7%
Konrad Stępień7%
Łukasz Sołowiej6%
Roman Yakuba6%
Jakov Blagaić5%
Dawid Abramowicz4%
Jakub Serafin3%
Jin-hyun Lee0%
Mateusz Stępień0%
Mateusz Radecki0%
Michal Siplak0%
Artur Siemaszko0%
Hubert Tomalski0%
Georgy Zhukov0%
Ioan-Calin Revenco0%
Rok Kidrič0%
Michał Walski0%
Wojciech Hajda0%
Kewin Komar0%
Krystian Okoniewski0%
Jakub Stec0%
Michał Perchel0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artur Siemaszko33%
Dawid Abramowicz29%
Artur Crăciun28%
German Barkovskiy27%
Jakub Stec25%
Jani Atanasov22%
Georgy Zhukov22%
Jakub Serafin22%
Dawid Szymonowicz22%
Wojciech Hajda21%
Łukasz Sołowiej19%
Konrad Stępień19%
Piotr Mroziński19%
Ioan-Calin Revenco18%
Roman Yakuba15%
Jakov Blagaić14%
Michal Siplak12%
Jin-hyun Lee11%
Mateusz Stępień10%
Michalis Kosidis10%
Antoni Klimek8%
Mateusz Cholewiak7%
Hubert Tomalski7%
Mateusz Radecki5%
Kewin Komar3%
Rok Kidrič0%
Michał Walski0%
Krystian Okoniewski0%
Michał Perchel0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Konrad Stępień15%
German Barkovskiy13%
Jin-hyun Lee11%
Dawid Abramowicz11%
Jakub Serafin6%
Łukasz Sołowiej6%
Mateusz Stępień5%
Mateusz Cholewiak4%
Artur Crăciun3%
Michalis Kosidis3%
Jakov Blagaić0%
Mateusz Radecki0%
Michal Siplak0%
Artur Siemaszko0%
Dawid Szymonowicz0%
Hubert Tomalski0%
Jani Atanasov0%
Georgy Zhukov0%
Ioan-Calin Revenco0%
Rok Kidrič0%
Michał Walski0%
Wojciech Hajda0%
Piotr Mroziński0%
Kewin Komar0%
Roman Yakuba0%
Antoni Klimek0%
Krystian Okoniewski0%
Jakub Stec0%
Michał Perchel0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
German Barkovskiy13%
Jani Atanasov11%
Antoni Klimek8%
Piotr Mroziński7%
Jin-hyun Lee6%
Dawid Szymonowicz4%
Konrad Stępień4%
Michalis Kosidis3%
Jakub Serafin3%
Jakov Blagaić0%
Mateusz Stępień0%
Mateusz Cholewiak0%
Mateusz Radecki0%
Michal Siplak0%
Dawid Abramowicz0%
Łukasz Sołowiej0%
Artur Siemaszko0%
Hubert Tomalski0%
Artur Crăciun0%
Georgy Zhukov0%
Ioan-Calin Revenco0%
Rok Kidrič0%
Michał Walski0%
Wojciech Hajda0%
Kewin Komar0%
Roman Yakuba0%
Krystian Okoniewski0%
Jakub Stec0%
Michał Perchel0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (20)
€22m
AG (23)
€5m
PW (25)
€5m
ML (24)
€4m
ŁŁ (22)
€4m
OO (24)
€4m
RC (20)
€4m
NIE (16)
€4m
SR (18)
€3m
PB (21)
€3m
CG (20)
€3m
PN (16)
€3m
PGM (15)
€2m
SM (16)
€2m
PS (18)
€2m
WP (6)
€1m
POD (5)
€1m
US (3)
€0m
Puszcza Niepołomice's squad is €2m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€3m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (8)
€15m
PW (13)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
OO (8)
€2m
ŁŁ (7)
€2m
NIE (7)
€2m
ML (7)
€1m
SM (8)
€1m
RC (7)
€1m
SR (9)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
CG (7)
€1m
PS (8)
€1m
PGM (4)
€0m
POD (1)
€0m
WP (0)
€0m
US (0)
€0m
Puszcza Niepołomice's attack is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €3m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (3)
€5m
ML (10)
€2m
NIE (5)
€2m
OO (8)
€1m
PGM (6)
€1m
AG (5)
€1m
PB (8)
€1m
ŁŁ (7)
€1m
RC (5)
€1m
WP (3)
€1m
CG (6)
€1m
PN (4)
€0m
PW (2)
€0m
SR (2)
€0m
PS (3)
€0m
US (2)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
SM (2)
€0m
Puszcza Niepołomice and Polonia Warszawa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LG (9)
€3m
AG (9)
€2m
PW (10)
€2m
ŁŁ (8)
€2m
CG (7)
€1m
SR (7)
€1m
RC (8)
€1m
ML (7)
€1m
PN (6)
€1m
OO (8)
€1m
PB (5)
€1m
PGM (5)
€1m
PS (7)
€1m
NIE (4)
€1m
SM (6)
€1m
WP (3)
€0m
POD (2)
€0m
US (1)
€0m
Puszcza Niepołomice's defence is €1m less valuable than Polonia Warszawa's (€1m vs €2m).
Poland: I Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Poland: I Liga stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Miedz Legnica
Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki
ŁKS Łódź
Chrobry Głogów
Arka Gdynia
Warta Poznań
Pogoń Siedlce
Odra Opole
Stal Mielec
Nieciecza
Lechia Gdansk
Ruch Chorzów
Polonia Bytom
Unia Skierniewice
Podbeskidzie
Stal Rzeszów