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Pyunik Yerevan vs Alashkert Result & Analysis

Date: 12/04/2024
Time: 12:00
Final 2-1
Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
Vs
58%
23%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Referee: -
Match preview & prediction

Pyunik Yerevan’s recent 3-game winning streak and their 2.5 goals per game at home against weaker opposition set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Alashkert’s 1.25 goals per game on the road against stronger teams and 3.0 goals conceded suggest defensive frailties. The model predicts a home win with 58% probability, a draw 23%, and an away win 19%. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a 10.3% chance, even though the overall expected total is 3.2 goals. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, and the expected total goals is 3.2. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 84.4%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.1%, and Under 5.5 cards at 73.8%. The home side’s average of 2.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded at home, versus the away side’s 1.25 scored and 3.0 conceded on the road, underline the offensive edge for Pyunik. The match is projected to be a goal-laden affair with Pyunik likely to secure victory.

Results analysis

Pyunik Yerevan continued their three-game winning streak, securing a 2-1 victory over Alashkert and confirming the model’s home-win prediction. The favourite, chosen with a 58% probability, proved correct. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 84.4% chance, matching the 3-goal total. The most likely scoreline of 2-0 was close, but the actual 2-1 result still fell within the top-probability outcomes. Alashkert’s form, after a draw, was less convincing away, while Pyunik’s strong home record and high average goals scored underpinned the successful forecast. The predictions largely materialised, underscoring the model’s accuracy.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Pyunik Yerevan win✓ Hit
58.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert win✗ Miss
19.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D22D13L11D21W01L31W11D11DA·SHI28/11A·ALA06/12H·ARA11/12A·ARA23/02A·FC 27/02H·WES04/03A·VAN08/03H·BKM16/03A·FC 31/03H·SHI04/04
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.071.002.270.931.871.07
vs Stronger (2)0.003.000.003.000.003.00
vs Similar (10)1.601.102.251.001.171.17
vs Weaker (18)2.560.722.500.702.620.75
Clean sheet %27% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D11D11D01L60W02L02L02L21W12LH·ARA30/11H·PYU06/12A·WES10/12H·VAN23/02A·BKM27/02H·FC 02/03A·SHI06/03H·FC 16/03H·ARA30/03A·ARA04/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.271.071.002.201.53
vs Stronger (9)1.112.111.001.401.253.00
vs Similar (11)1.271.091.001.001.601.20
vs Weaker (10)2.500.701.250.503.330.83
Clean sheet %23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.4%
Under 1.5
15.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.9%
Under 2.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.8%
Under 3.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
60.9%
No
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1 ✓
9.8%
2-0
8.5%
1-0
7.2%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
6.0%
2-2
5.7%
1-2
5.4%
Pyunik Yerevan goals ↓
Alashkert goals →
01234
04.8%3.5%2.6%1.0%0.3%
17.2%10%5.4%2.1%0.6%
28.5%9.8%5.7%2.2%0.6%
36.0%6.9%4.0%1.5%0.4%
43.1%3.6%2.1%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pyunik Yerevan goals (down), columns = Alashkert goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.28
FC Noah
2.22
Ararat-Armenia
2.08
FC Urartu
1.39
Alashkert
1.25
Ararat
1.25
West Armenia
1.03
Shirak
0.92
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.75
Pyunik Yerevan is 1.03 points better than Alashkert in terms of average points per game (2.28 vs 1.25).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Pyunik Yerevan
2.33
Ararat-Armenia
2.03
FC Noah
1.92
Alashkert
1.50
FC Urartu
1.36
West Armenia
1.19
Ararat
1.08
Van
0.89
BKMA
0.89
Shirak
0.78
Pyunik Yerevan is 0.83 goals better than Alashkert in terms of goals scored per game (2.33 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.78
FC Noah
0.92
Ararat-Armenia
0.94
Shirak
1.28
FC Urartu
1.36
Ararat
1.39
Alashkert
1.56
Van
1.86
BKMA
1.86
West Armenia
2.03
Pyunik Yerevan is 0.78 goals better than Alashkert in terms of goals conceded per game (0.78 vs 1.56).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D11D02L10W11D01L00D10W00DA·SHI28/11A·ALA06/12H·ARA11/12A·ARA23/02A·FC 27/02H·WES04/03A·VAN08/03H·BKM16/03A·FC 31/03H·SHI04/04
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.531.070.471.000.60
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.001.000.002.00
vs Similar (10)0.800.601.250.500.500.67
vs Weaker (18)1.280.391.100.401.500.38
Clean sheet %53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D11D10W01L20W00D00D01L20W00DH·ARA30/11H·PYU06/12A·WES10/12H·VAN23/02A·BKM27/02H·FC 02/03A·SHI06/03H·FC 16/03H·ARA30/03A·ARA04/04
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.530.470.470.930.60
vs Stronger (9)0.671.220.600.800.751.75
vs Similar (11)0.450.360.170.330.800.40
vs Weaker (10)1.000.100.750.251.170.00
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D11D11D01L10W00D31W01L11DA·SHI28/11A·ALA06/12H·ARA11/12A·ARA23/02A·FC 27/02H·WES04/03A·VAN08/03H·BKM16/03A·FC 31/03H·SHI04/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.471.200.470.870.47
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.800.501.000.500.670.50
vs Weaker (18)1.280.331.400.301.120.38
Clean sheet %60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AlashkertAlashkert

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D01L00D40W02L02L01L01L12LH·ARA30/11H·PYU06/12A·WES10/12H·VAN23/02A·BKM27/02H·FC 02/03A·SHI06/03H·FC 16/03H·ARA30/03A·ARA04/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.730.600.531.270.93
vs Stronger (9)0.440.890.400.600.501.25
vs Similar (11)0.820.730.830.670.800.80
vs Weaker (10)1.500.600.500.252.170.83
Clean sheet %43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards80.1%--------
Under 5.5 cards73.8%--------

🎽 13. Player market rates

Pyunik Yerevan · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Otubanjo33%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Artak Dashyan33%
Luka Juričić20%
Juninho17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Anton Bratkov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Miljković60%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan33%
Anton Bratkov33%
Mikhail Kovalenko25%
Sergiy Vakulenko25%
Alexander Karapetyan20%
Luka Juričić20%
David Yurchenko17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander González33%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan17%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Luka Juričić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artak Dashyan67%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Luka Juričić20%
Yusuf Otubanjo17%
Dame Diop17%
Alexander González0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Pyunik Yerevan and Alashkert have a similar squad value (both €6m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Pyunik Yerevan and Alashkert have a similar attack value (both €2m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Pyunik Yerevan and Alashkert have a similar midfield value (both €2m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Pyunik Yerevan and Alashkert have a similar defence value (both €2m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
6
PY wins
1
Draws
0
ALA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Pyunik Yerevan vs Alashkert · H/A from PY
DateH/AGameScore
06/12/23AAlashkert Vs PY1-1
29/09/23HPY Vs Alashkert3-1
31/07/23AAlashkert Vs PY0-2
06/06/23AAlashkert Vs PY1-2
17/04/23HPY Vs Alashkert1-0
22/11/22AAlashkert Vs PY1-2
01/10/22HPY Vs Alashkert5-1

Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/24HPY Vs Shirak1-1
31/03/24AFC Noah Vs PY1-1
16/03/24HPY Vs BKMA3-1
08/03/24AVan Vs PY1-0
04/03/24HPY Vs West Armenia2-1
27/02/24AFC Urartu Vs PY1-1
23/02/24AArarat-Armenia Vs PY3-1
11/12/23HPY Vs Ararat2-2
06/12/23AAlashkert Vs PY1-1
28/11/23AShirak Vs PY1-1

AlashkertAlashkert

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/04/24AArarat-Armenia Vs ALA2-1
30/03/24HALA Vs Ararat2-1
16/03/24HALA Vs FC Urartu0-2
06/03/24AShirak Vs ALA2-0
02/03/24HALA Vs FC Noah0-2
27/02/24ABKMA Vs ALA0-6
23/02/24HALA Vs Van0-1
10/12/23AWest Armenia Vs ALA1-1
06/12/23HALA Vs Pyunik Yerevan1-1
30/11/23HALA Vs Ararat-Armenia1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Pyunik Yerevan
Pyunik Yerevan
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 6 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDD2.30
HomeWDWWD2.42
AwayDLDLD2.19
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %70%75%65%
AVG goals3.103.043.15
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %62%62%62%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored2.322.332.31
Conceded0.780.710.85
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet38%42%35%
Corners11.179.6712.67
Cards2.673.002.00
Alashkert
Alashkert
Armenia: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 3 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWL1.54
HomeDLLLW1.50
AwayWDWLL1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%42%50%
AVG goals2.742.273.25
Over 1.5 %70%69%71%
Over 2.5 %50%42%58%
Over 3.5 %30%15%46%
Scored1.581.271.92
Conceded1.161.001.33
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners11.0012.509.50
Cards4.503.006.00

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Pyunik YerevanPyunik Yerevan3682
67%
2.3
8428+56
3.1
86%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2222.30.8
-
2FC NoahFC Noah3680
72%
2.2
6933+36
2.8
67%
44%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
5341.90.9
-
3Ararat-ArmeniaArarat-Armenia3675
64%
2.1
7334+39
3.0
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
8
3242.00.9
-
4FC UrartuFC Urartu3650
36%
1.4
4949+0
2.7
81%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2121.41.4
-
5AlashkertAlashkert3645
36%
1.2
5456-2
3.1
81%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
3121.51.6
-
6AraratArarat3645
36%
1.2
3950-11
2.5
75%
47%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0121.11.4
-
7West ArmeniaWest Armenia3637
31%
1.0
4373-30
3.2
78%
58%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
-
8ShirakShirak3633
22%
0.9
2846-18
2.1
56%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1110.81.3
-
9VanVan3632
22%
0.9
3267-35
2.8
75%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.91.9
-
10BKMABKMA3627
19%
0.8
3267-35
2.8
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.91.9
-
Armenia: Premier League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →

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