Pyunik Yerevan are the clear favourites, with the model assigning a 69% chance of a home win, 18% for a draw and 13% for an away win. The 3.7 expected total goals and a 21% probability that the match will finish with three goals point to a lively contest. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Pyunik, carrying a 9.1% probability. Pyunik’s home form shows they average 2.75 goals scored and concede only one against weaker opposition, while Alashkert, playing away against stronger teams, averages just 1.17 goals scored and concedes 2.67. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 goals at 89.4% (hit), Over 2.5 cards at 79.6%, Under 5.5 cards at 74.5% and Over 2.5 goals at 72.1% (miss). The match is expected to see Pyunik win 69%, a draw 18% and an Alashkert win 13%.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Alashkert snatched a 2-0 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite Pyunik Yerevan who had been riding a three-game winning run. The model had called a home win with a 69% probability, but the prediction was wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed an away win. The model’s other selections were mixed: Over 1.5 goals hit with an 89.4% chance, while Over 2.5 missed at 72.1%. The expected total of 3.7 goals and the most likely 3-goal outcome did not materialise, underscoring the unpredictability of this fixture.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pyunik Yerevan win✗ Miss
69.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alashkert win✓ Hit
13.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pyunik Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
0.87
2.57
0.86
1.44
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.50
0.75
2.33
0.67
0.67
0.83
vs Weaker (18)
2.28
0.94
2.75
1.00
1.90
0.90
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.67
0.86
1.21
1.44
2.06
vs Stronger (10)
1.00
2.30
0.75
1.75
1.17
2.67
vs Similar (10)
1.00
1.80
0.80
1.20
1.20
2.40
vs Weaker (10)
1.50
0.90
1.00
0.80
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.4%
Under 1.5
10.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
72.1%
Under 2.5
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.3%
Under 3.5
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
8.0%
1-1
7.7%
3-0
7.2%
1-0
5.6%
4-1
5.3%
2-2
5.1%
Pyunik Yerevan goals ↓
Alashkert goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
2.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.2%
1
5.6%
7.7%
3.9%
1.4%
0.4%
2
8.2%
9.1%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
3
7.2%
8.0%
4.4%
1.6%
0.5%
4
4.7%
5.3%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pyunik Yerevan goals (down), columns = Alashkert goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
2.50
Ararat-Armenia
2.20
FC Urartu
1.97
Pyunik Yerevan
1.77
Van
1.73
BKMA
1.20
Shirak
1.10
Ararat
1.00
West Armenia
0.96
Alashkert
0.79
Gandzasar
0.25
Pyunik Yerevan is 0.97 points better than Alashkert in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
3.07
Ararat-Armenia
2.50
FC Urartu
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
1.97
Van
1.87
BKMA
1.47
Ararat
1.14
Shirak
0.93
West Armenia
0.89
Alashkert
0.72
Gandzasar
0.46
Pyunik Yerevan is 1.24 goals better than Alashkert in terms of goals scored per game (1.97 vs 0.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Noah
0.67
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
1.10
Van
1.20
Pyunik Yerevan
1.23
Shirak
1.72
Alashkert
1.79
BKMA
1.80
Ararat
2.03
West Armenia
2.48
Gandzasar
2.50
Pyunik Yerevan is 0.56 goals better than Alashkert in terms of goals conceded per game (1.23 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pyunik Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.00
0.43
0.88
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.33
0.83
0.33
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (18)
1.17
0.44
1.12
0.50
1.20
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.57
0.69
0.81
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.30
0.50
0.75
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.40
0.60
0.20
0.80
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pyunik Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.57
0.43
0.56
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.42
1.50
0.33
0.33
0.50
vs Weaker (18)
1.11
0.50
1.62
0.50
0.70
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Alashkert) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alashkert
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.97
0.36
0.64
0.75
1.25
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
1.20
0.60
0.40
0.60
2.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.70
0.20
0.60
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alashkert over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pyunik Yerevan · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Otubanjo33%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Artak Dashyan33%
Luka Juričić20%
Juninho17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Anton Bratkov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Miljković60%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan33%
Anton Bratkov33%
Mikhail Kovalenko25%
Sergiy Vakulenko25%
Alexander Karapetyan20%
Luka Juričić20%
David Yurchenko17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander González33%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan17%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Luka Juričić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artak Dashyan67%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Luka Juričić20%
Yusuf Otubanjo17%
Dame Diop17%
Alexander González0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
Pyunik Yerevan and Alashkert have a similar squad value (both €6m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Pyunik Yerevan and Alashkert have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
VAN (3)
€0m
Pyunik Yerevan and Alashkert have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
Pyunik Yerevan and Alashkert have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Armenia: Premier League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Noah
Ararat-Armenia
FC Urartu
Van
BKMA
Shirak
Ararat
West Armenia
Gandzasar