The model favours an away win for FC Noah, with a 44% chance of victory, while the home side Pyunik Yerevan and a draw each sit at 28%. The expected total goals hover at 2.6, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.5% probability. Pyunik, at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded, whereas Noah, on the road, nets 1.6 and concedes 0.8. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 75% chance, and Under 3.5, with a 73.1% chance. The model’s edge for the Over 1.5 pick is highlighted. In summary, the match is expected to finish 1-1, with Noah edging out a win, 2.6 goals on average, and the key selections as outlined.
Results analysis
The match ended in a 0-0 draw, a shock that left the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win, wrong. The model had given the away side a 44 % chance, but the result was a stalemate. The home side, Pyunik Yerevan, had been on a two-game winning run, while FC Noah was also on a two-game winning run. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals missed, despite a 75 % probability, whereas the Under 3.5 pick hit, with a 73.1 % chance. The final score of 0-0 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1 only in the sense that no goals were scored, but the match was a draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pyunik Yerevan win✗ Miss
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Noah win✗ Miss
43.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pyunik Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.50
0.83
2.15
0.62
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
1.20
1.07
1.71
0.86
0.75
1.25
vs Weaker (15)
1.80
0.60
2.67
0.33
1.22
0.78
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
0.90
2.00
0.94
1.64
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
2.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (12)
1.33
0.83
1.14
0.86
1.60
0.80
vs Weaker (15)
2.53
0.73
2.88
1.12
2.14
0.29
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
75.0%
Under 1.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.8%
Under 2.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.9%
Under 3.5
73.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.9%
No
46.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
9.5%
1-2
9.1%
0-0 ✓
8.5%
0-2
8.0%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
5.2%
Pyunik Yerevan goals ↓
FC Noah goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.5%
9.5%
8.0%
3.9%
1.5%
1
7.0%
13%
9.1%
4.5%
1.7%
2
4.7%
7.0%
5.2%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.8%
2.7%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pyunik Yerevan goals (down), columns = FC Noah goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ararat-Armenia
2.22
FC Noah
2.07
Pyunik Yerevan
2.04
Alashkert
1.96
FC Urartu
1.81
Van
1.15
BKMA
0.85
Gandzasar
0.78
Ararat
0.48
Shirak
0.48
Pyunik Yerevan is 0.04 points worse than FC Noah in terms of average points per game (2.04 vs 2.07).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.26
Ararat-Armenia
1.85
FC Urartu
1.59
Alashkert
1.56
Pyunik Yerevan
1.37
BKMA
1.11
Van
1.00
Ararat
0.78
Gandzasar
0.74
Shirak
0.63
Pyunik Yerevan is 0.89 goals worse than FC Noah in terms of goals scored per game (1.37 vs 2.26).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pyunik Yerevan
0.67
FC Noah
0.70
Alashkert
0.85
Ararat-Armenia
0.93
FC Urartu
0.96
Van
1.48
Gandzasar
1.52
BKMA
1.56
Shirak
1.89
Ararat
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan is 0.04 goals better than FC Noah in terms of goals conceded per game (0.67 vs 0.70).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pyunik Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.33
1.23
0.15
0.24
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.47
1.00
0.29
0.12
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.20
1.50
0.00
0.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.50
0.88
0.56
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.58
0.43
0.57
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (15)
1.07
0.33
1.38
0.62
0.71
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pyunik Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.50
0.92
0.46
0.76
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
0.67
0.60
0.71
0.57
0.62
0.62
vs Weaker (15)
1.00
0.40
1.17
0.33
0.89
0.44
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Noah) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Noah
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
1.12
0.38
1.07
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.83
0.25
0.71
0.29
1.00
0.20
vs Weaker (15)
1.47
0.40
1.50
0.50
1.43
0.29
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Noah over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
FU (27)
€5m
Pyunik Yerevan's squad is €6m less valuable than FC Noah's (€6m vs €12m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
Pyunik Yerevan's attack is €3m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
FU (4)
€1m
Pyunik Yerevan's midfield is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
Pyunik Yerevan's defence is €2m less valuable than FC Noah's (€2m vs €4m).
Armenia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Ararat-Armenia
Alashkert
FC Urartu
Van
BKMA
Gandzasar
Shirak
Ararat