Pyunik Yerevan, undefeated in their last 5 matches, hosts Van, who suffered 3 consecutive defeats before a recent win. The model picks a home win for this Armenia: Premier League match on August 9. Pyunik Yerevan is heavily favoured to win, with a 58% chance of a home victory, compared to 26% for a draw and 16% for Van to win away.
The expected total number of goals is 2.5, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12.7% probability. Pyunik Yerevan has been strong at home, scoring an average of 2.38 goals and conceding just 0.38. Van, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 0.71 goals and conceding 2.29.
The model's selection is Under 3.5, with a 75.4% probability and a 15% edge. It also suggests Over 1.5, with a 72.7% probability. The home win percentage is 58%, the draw percentage is 26%, and the away win percentage is 16%.
Results analysis
The win extends Pyunik Yerevan's unbeaten run in their last 5 matches, having defeated Van 3-0 at home. The final scoreline was a convincing one, with the home team securing a 3-0 victory. The model's selection, a home win, was correct, given the pre-match probability of 58%. The model's call was vindicated, as the favourite was indeed the home team. The suggested picks largely came in, with 'Under 3.5' hitting at 75.5% and 'Over 1.5' hitting at 72.7%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Pyunik Yerevan win✓ Hit
57.6%
Avg Implied 76.5% · @ 1.18
Edge
-18.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Pinnacle
1.20
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied 16.1% · @ 5.62
Edge
+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Dafabet
6.00
Superbet
5.90
Unibet
5.80
Van win✗ Miss
16.4%
Avg Implied 7.3% · @ 12.35
Edge
+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
15.50
888Sport
15.00
William Hil
15.00
Marathonbet
14.75
BetVictor
13.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Pyunik Yerevan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.80
1.79
0.64
1.06
0.94
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.92
1.33
1.00
1.00
0.83
1.67
vs Weaker (18)
1.72
0.44
2.38
0.38
1.20
0.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.53
1.31
1.56
0.86
1.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.93
1.93
1.12
1.62
0.71
2.29
vs Similar (15)
1.27
1.13
1.50
1.50
1.00
0.71
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.7%
@ 1.16-6.9%
Under 1.5
27.3%
@ 4.49+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Under
Betfair
5.00
888Sport
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.0%
@ 1.53-13.4%
Under 2.5
54.0%
@ 2.24+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.59
Bet365
1.57
10Bet
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.55
Under
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.35
10Bet
2.35
Unibet
2.33
888Sport
2.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
@ 2.36-14.2%
Under 3.5
75.5%
@ 1.49+14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.49
10Bet
2.45
888Sport
2.45
Betfair
2.45
Marathonbet
2.44
Under
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.5%
@ 2.21+5.2%
No
53.5%
@ 1.55-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.31
Betfair
2.25
Superbet
2.25
William Hil
2.20
No
888Sport
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Betfair
1.60
Superbet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
12.7%@ 6.69+6.3%
1-1
12.3%@ 10.56+8.2%
2-0
11.8%@ 5.40+3.9%
2-1
9.5%@ 8.73+4.6%
0-0
9.2%@ 13.51+6.0%
3-0 ✓
6.7%@ 6.24-0.2%
0-1
5.4%@ 26.23+3.8%
3-1
5.4%@ 10.46+1.3%
Pyunik Yerevan goals ↓
Van goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.2%
5.4%
2.6%
0.7%
0.1%
1
13%
12%
4.5%
1.2%
0.2%
2
12%
9.5%
3.8%
1.0%
0.2%
3
6.7%
5.4%
2.2%
0.6%
0.1%
4
2.9%
2.3%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Pyunik Yerevan goals (down), columns = Van goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Noah
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan
2.50
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.17
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.40
BKMA
0.80
Ararat
0.60
Gandzasar
0.60
Syunik
0.20
Van
0.17
Pyunik Yerevan is 2.33 points better than Van in terms of average points per game (2.50 vs 0.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
FC Noah
2.60
Sardarapat
2.50
Alashkert
2.33
Pyunik Yerevan
2.25
Ararat-Armenia
2.00
FC Urartu
1.60
Shirak
1.60
Gandzasar
1.20
BKMA
0.80
Syunik
0.60
Ararat
0.60
Van
0.33
Pyunik Yerevan is 1.92 goals better than Van in terms of goals scored per game (2.25 vs 0.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alashkert
0.33
FC Noah
0.60
Pyunik Yerevan
0.75
FC Urartu
1.00
Sardarapat
1.00
Shirak
1.00
BKMA
1.20
Ararat-Armenia
1.40
Ararat
2.40
Gandzasar
2.40
Syunik
2.60
Van
3.00
Pyunik Yerevan is 2.25 goals better than Van in terms of goals conceded per game (0.75 vs 3.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Pyunik Yerevan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.30
1.00
0.21
0.25
0.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.33
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.17
0.67
vs Weaker (18)
0.78
0.17
1.38
0.12
0.30
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.62
0.29
1.00
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.93
0.50
0.50
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.67
0.50
0.75
0.29
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Pyunik Yerevan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.50
0.79
0.43
0.81
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.58
0.83
0.50
0.67
0.67
1.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.94
0.28
1.00
0.25
0.90
0.30
Clean sheet %
60% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Van) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Van
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.81
0.94
0.57
0.50
vs Stronger (15)
0.53
1.00
0.62
1.12
0.43
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.87
0.47
1.00
0.75
0.71
0.14
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Pyunik Yerevan) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pyunik Yerevan over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Van over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
75.5%
1.49
Betfair
1.53
Betano
1.53
Unibet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
888Sport
1.50
+14.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.7%
1.16
Betfair
1.17
10Bet
1.17
888Sport
1.17
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
-6.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Pyunik Yerevan · 2022/23
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Otubanjo33%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Artak Dashyan33%
Luka Juričić20%
Juninho17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Anton Bratkov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandar Miljković60%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan33%
Anton Bratkov33%
Mikhail Kovalenko25%
Sergiy Vakulenko25%
Alexander Karapetyan20%
Luka Juričić20%
David Yurchenko17%
Eugeniu Cociuc17%
Alexander González0%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Alexander González33%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan17%
Yusuf Otubanjo0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Aras Özbiliz0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Dame Diop0%
Artak Dashyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Luka Juričić0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Artak Dashyan67%
Aras Özbiliz33%
Luka Juričić20%
Yusuf Otubanjo17%
Dame Diop17%
Alexander González0%
Juninho0%
Nikita Baranov0%
Stefan Spirovski0%
Roman Karasyuk0%
Aleksandar Miljković0%
Mikhail Kovalenko0%
David Yurchenko0%
Eugeniu Cociuc0%
Alexander Karapetyan0%
Hovhannes Harutyunyan0%
Sergiy Vakulenko0%
Grenik Petrosyan0%
Anton Bratkov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (27)
€12m
ARA (26)
€8m
PY (24)
€6m
ALA (24)
€5m
FU (27)
€5m
ARA (26)
€3m
SHI (23)
€3m
GAN (25)
€3m
BKM (20)
€2m
SAR (23)
€2m
VAN (21)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
Pyunik Yerevan's squad is €4m more valuable than Van's (€6m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (10)
€5m
ARA (9)
€3m
ALA (10)
€3m
FU (11)
€2m
PY (7)
€2m
GAN (8)
€1m
SHI (6)
€1m
BKM (5)
€1m
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
VAN (6)
€1m
ARA (4)
€0m
Pyunik Yerevan's attack is €1m more valuable than Van's (€2m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (5)
€3m
PY (7)
€2m
ARA (6)
€2m
ARA (10)
€1m
ALA (5)
€1m
SHI (5)
€1m
FU (4)
€1m
BKM (6)
€1m
GAN (5)
€1m
SYU (6)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
VAN (3)
€0m
Pyunik Yerevan's midfield is €2m more valuable than Van's (€2m vs €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FN (12)
€4m
ARA (11)
€4m
FU (12)
€2m
PY (10)
€2m
ALA (9)
€2m
ARA (12)
€2m
SHI (12)
€1m
GAN (12)
€1m
VAN (12)
€1m
SAR (12)
€1m
BKM (9)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
Pyunik Yerevan's defence is €1m more valuable than Van's (€2m vs €1m).
Armenia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: Premier League stats & trends →