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Qabala vs Neftchi Baku Result & Analysis

Date: 10/09/2022
Time: 14:00
Final 1-2
Qabala
Qabala
Vs
40%
29%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Qabala win✗ Miss
39.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku win✓ Hit
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

QabalaQabala

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L21W20W31W30W02L12LA·FEH21/07H·FEH28/07A·TUR08/08H·ŞAM14/08A·KAP21/08H·SAB28/08A·ZIR04/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.711.431.671.331.751.50
vs Stronger (2)0.502.000.002.001.002.00
vs Similar (5)2.201.202.501.002.001.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %29% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-502L30W21W10W01L52W12L21W30WA·ARI21/07H·ARI28/07H·RAP04/08A·ŞAM07/08A·RAP11/08H·KAP14/08A·SAB20/08H·ZIR26/08H·SUM03/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.891.003.000.800.501.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.331.172.330.670.331.67
vs Weaker (3)3.000.674.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.8%
Under 1.5
27.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.9%
Under 2.5
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.5%
Under 3.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.2%
No
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
9.7%
0-0
9.4%
2-1
8.6%
0-1
8.2%
1-2 ✓
7.4%
2-0
7.4%
0-2
5.5%
Qabala goals ↓
Neftchi Baku goals →
01234
09.4%8.2%5.5%2.1%0.6%
19.7%14%7.4%2.9%0.8%
27.4%8.6%5.0%1.9%0.6%
33.3%3.9%2.2%0.9%0.3%
41.1%1.3%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Qabala goals (down), columns = Neftchi Baku goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Qarabag
2.50
Sabah FA
2.25
Neftchi Baku
1.89
Qabala
1.39
Zira
1.39
Turan
1.08
Sumqayıt
0.86
Kapaz
0.86
Səbail
0.81
Şamaxı FK
0.69
Qabala is 0.50 points worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of average points per game (1.39 vs 1.89).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Qarabag
2.53
Sabah FA
2.08
Neftchi Baku
1.75
Qabala
1.31
Zira
1.25
Turan
1.00
Kapaz
0.94
Səbail
0.89
Sumqayıt
0.72
Şamaxı FK
0.72
Qabala is 0.44 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.75).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Sabah FA
0.67
Qarabag
0.69
Neftchi Baku
1.06
Zira
1.28
Qabala
1.31
Turan
1.36
Şamaxı FK
1.44
Səbail
1.72
Kapaz
1.72
Sumqayıt
1.94
Qabala is 0.25 goals worse than Neftchi Baku in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.06).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

QabalaQabala

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D11D00D30W20W00D11DA·FEH21/07H·FEH28/07A·TUR08/08H·ŞAM14/08A·KAP21/08H·SAB28/08A·ZIR04/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.140.431.330.331.000.50
vs Stronger (2)0.500.500.000.001.001.00
vs Similar (5)1.400.402.000.501.000.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W10W00D00D30W10W10W10WA·ARI21/07H·ARI28/07H·RAP04/08A·ŞAM07/08A·RAP11/08H·KAP14/08A·SAB20/08H·ZIR26/08H·SUM03/09
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.890.001.400.000.250.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.670.001.000.000.330.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %100% (+69pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

QabalaQabala

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L10W20W01L10W02L01LA·FEH21/07H·FEH28/07A·TUR08/08H·ŞAM14/08A·KAP21/08H·SAB28/08A·ZIR04/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.000.331.000.751.00
vs Stronger (2)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
vs Similar (5)0.800.800.500.501.001.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Neftchi Baku) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W11D10W01L22D02L11D20WA·ARI21/07H·ARI28/07H·RAP04/08A·ŞAM07/08A·RAP11/08H·KAP14/08A·SAB20/08H·ZIR26/08H·SUM03/09
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.001.600.800.251.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)0.671.171.330.670.001.67
vs Weaker (3)1.670.672.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Qabala) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Qabala over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Qabala over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Neftchi Baku over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 19.5 fouls89.6%--------
Over 21.5 fouls79.7%--------
Under 3.575.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.572.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (25)
€25m
SF (24)
€17m
NB (23)
€13m
ZIR (23)
€12m
TUR (23)
€10m
SUM (22)
€9m
KAP (24)
€5m
QAB (18)
€5m
ŞF (15)
€4m
SƏB (4)
€1m
Qabala's squad is €8m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€5m vs €13m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (9)
€8m
ZIR (10)
€6m
SF (7)
€5m
NB (7)
€4m
SUM (7)
€4m
TUR (7)
€3m
QAB (5)
€1m
ŞF (6)
€1m
KAP (8)
€1m
SƏB (0)
€0m
Qabala's attack is €3m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €4m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SF (7)
€5m
QAR (3)
€3m
NB (6)
€3m
SUM (4)
€2m
TUR (4)
€2m
KAP (6)
€2m
ŞF (3)
€1m
ZIR (3)
€1m
QAB (3)
€1m
SƏB (1)
€0m
Qabala's midfield is €2m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€1m vs €3m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
QAR (13)
€14m
SF (10)
€7m
NB (10)
€6m
ZIR (10)
€6m
TUR (12)
€5m
SUM (11)
€4m
QAB (10)
€3m
KAP (10)
€3m
ŞF (6)
€2m
SƏB (3)
€1m
Qabala's defence is €4m less valuable than Neftchi Baku's (€3m vs €6m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
QAB wins
0
Draws
0
NB wins

Head-to-head

Qabala vs Neftchi Baku · H/A from QAB
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

QabalaQabala

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/09/22AZira Vs QAB2-1
28/08/22HQAB Vs Sabah FA0-2
21/08/22AKapaz Vs QAB0-3
14/08/22HQAB Vs Şamaxı FK3-1
08/08/22ATuran Vs QAB0-2
28/07/22HQAB Vs Fehérvár FC2-1
21/07/22AFehérvár FC Vs QAB4-1

Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/09/22HNB Vs Sumqayıt3-0
26/08/22HNB Vs Zira2-1
20/08/22ASabah FA Vs NB2-1
14/08/22HNB Vs Kapaz5-2
11/08/22ARapid Vienna Vs NB1-0
07/08/22AŞamaxı FK Vs NB0-1
04/08/22HNB Vs Rapid Vienna2-1
28/07/22HNB Vs Aris3-0
21/07/22AAris Vs NB2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Qabala
Qabala
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWLL1.71
HomeWWL2.00
AwayLWWL1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %57%67%50%
AVG goals3.143.003.25
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %71%67%75%
Over 3.5 %29%33%25%
Scored1.711.671.75
Conceded1.431.331.50
BTTS57%67%50%
Clean Sheet29%0%50%
Corners---
Cards4.00-4.00
Neftchi Baku
Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW2.00
HomeWWWWW3.00
AwayLWLL0.75
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%100%25%
AVG goals2.893.801.75
Over 1.5 %78%100%50%
Over 2.5 %67%100%25%
Over 3.5 %11%20%0%
Scored1.893.000.50
Conceded1.000.801.25
BTTS44%60%25%
Clean Sheet33%40%25%
Corners11.508.0015.00
Cards5.505.505.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1QarabagQarabag3690
78%
2.5
9125+66
3.2
81%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
25
83142.50.7
-
2Sabah FASabah FA3681
69%
2.2
7524+51
2.8
78%
53%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
17
5572.10.7
-
3Neftchi BakuNeftchi Baku3668
56%
1.9
6338+25
2.8
81%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
4361.81.1
-
4QabalaQabala3650
36%
1.4
4747+0
2.6
81%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.31.3
-
5ZiraZira3650
36%
1.4
4546-1
2.5
72%
53%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
12
6161.21.3
-
6TuranTuran3639
28%
1.1
3649-13
2.4
69%
42%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
10
3251.01.4
-
7KapazKapaz3631
17%
0.9
3462-28
2.7
78%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1230.91.7
-
8SumqayıtSumqayıt3631
22%
0.9
2670-44
2.7
69%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
4240.71.9
-
9SəbailSəbail3629
19%
0.8
3262-30
2.6
75%
56%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.7
-
10Şamaxı FKŞamaxı FK3625
11%
0.7
2652-26
2.2
61%
36%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.71.4
-
Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Azerbaijan: Premyer Liqa stats & trends →

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